Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$203.01

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 23 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,512

Combined PnL+$73.22

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,224

Combined PnL-$276.23

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.01	74% 102108-36301 (138409)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 82.9¢	$322.42	$317.75	-$4.68	54% 10336-8828 (19164)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$270.42	$203	-$67.42	54% 15169-12706 (27875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.9¢	$141.86	$203	+$61.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.5¢	$128.56	—	-$128.56
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 84.8¢	$261.41	$240.22	-$21.19	59% 22833-16022 (38855)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$236.66	$190	-$46.66	56% 13457-10749 (24206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.1¢	$142.7	$190	+$47.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.4¢	$93.96	—	-$93.96
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 72.6¢	$205.19	$223	+$17.81	57% 7524-5785 (13309)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$213.09	$135.23	-$77.86	12% 17952-132766 (150718)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.3¢	$108.62	$135.23	+$26.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.3¢	$104.47	—	-$104.47
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 80.9¢	$182.32	$179.75	-$2.57	49% 4940-5115 (10055)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 86.8¢	$153.58	$169.11	+$15.53	60% 11909-7821 (19730)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 50.9¢	$106.1	—	-$106.1	29% 352-879 (1231)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$15.03	—	-$15.03	59% 61948-42961 (104909)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$57.36	$66	+$8.64	57% 11726-8722 (20448)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 16.9¢	$69.29	—	-$69.29	56% 12187-9408 (21595)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$60.28	$64.86	+$5.48	61% 93762-58955 (152717)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 89¢	$53.4	$60	+$6.6	49% 77489-80776 (158265)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 74¢	$55.71	$75.28	+$19.57	56% 57526-44427 (101953)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$19.36	—	-$19.36	55% 7122-5828 (12950)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$42.12	$39.78	-$2.34	52% 89240-83721 (172961)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 79¢	$23.99	$28.8	+$4.81	55% 8356-6793 (15149)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 85.8¢	$25.61	$21.02	-$4.59	67% 53089-26514 (79603)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$39.15	—	-$39.15	55% 17200-13831 (31031)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$17.54	—	-$17.54	58% 50755-36877 (87632)
RO Rock.San<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$14.43	$14.44	+$0.01	89% 11902-1414 (13316)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$10.89	$11	+$0.11	93% 22496-1730 (24226)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$9.76	—	-$9.76	66% 111485-57735 (169220)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,970.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

74%

102108-36301 (138409)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$322.42

Value

$317.75

PnL

-$4.68

Record

54%

10336-8828 (19164)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$270.42

Value

$203

PnL

-$67.42

Record

54%

15169-12706 (27875)

Both legs:

Down$141.8669.9¢+$61.14

Up$128.5618.5¢-$128.56

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$261.41

Value

$240.22

PnL

-$21.19

Record

59%

22833-16022 (38855)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$236.66

Value

$190

PnL

-$46.66

Record

56%

13457-10749 (24206)

Both legs:

Down$142.775.1¢+$47.3

Up$93.9621.4¢-$93.96

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$205.19

Value

$223

PnL

+$17.81

Record

57%

7524-5785 (13309)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$213.09

Value

$135.23

PnL

-$77.86

Record

12%

17952-132766 (150718)

Both legs:

Down$108.6280.3¢+$26.61

Up$104.4716.3¢-$104.47

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$182.32

Value

$179.75

PnL

-$2.57

Record

49%

4940-5115 (10055)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$153.58

Value

$169.11

PnL

+$15.53

Record

60%

11909-7821 (19730)

13897651CTR

Invested

$106.1

Value

—

PnL

-$106.1

Record

29%

352-879 (1231)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$15.03

Value

—

PnL

-$15.03

Record

59%

61948-42961 (104909)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$57.36

Value

$66

PnL

+$8.64

Record

57%

11726-8722 (20448)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$69.29

Value

—

PnL

-$69.29

Record

56%

12187-9408 (21595)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$60.28

Value

$64.86

PnL

+$5.48

Record

61%

93762-58955 (152717)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$53.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$6.6

Record

49%

77489-80776 (158265)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$55.71

Value

$75.28

PnL

+$19.57

Record

56%

57526-44427 (101953)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$19.36

Value

—

PnL

-$19.36

Record

55%

7122-5828 (12950)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$42.12

Value

$39.78

PnL

-$2.34

Record

52%

89240-83721 (172961)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$23.99

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$4.81

Record

55%

8356-6793 (15149)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$25.61

Value

$21.02

PnL

-$4.59

Record

67%

53089-26514 (79603)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$39.15

Value

—

PnL

-$39.15

Record

55%

17200-13831 (31031)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$17.54

Value

—

PnL

-$17.54

Record

58%

50755-36877 (87632)

Rock.San<$100

Down

Invested

$14.43

Value

$14.44

PnL

+$0.01

Record

89%

11902-1414 (13316)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.11

Record

93%

22496-1730 (24226)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$9.76

Value

—

PnL

-$9.76

Record

66%

111485-57735 (169220)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 23 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0f412418...35744b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793183100

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

+$30.01

thesidehustle

Down — $317.75

-$4.68

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$67.42

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $240.22

-$21.19

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$46.66

wzbbb

Down — $223

+$17.81

Hsilverbasher

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$77.86

ply-pm0

Down — $179.75

-$2.57

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $169.11

13897651

Up — $0