Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 24% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 25%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 21 top traders (24%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,057

Combined PnL+$406.7

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,793

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 24%Up — 76%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.4	93% 22496-1730 (24226)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$212.07	54% 15169-12706 (27875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.7¢	$494.3	$1.3K	+$783.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$995.44	—	-$995.44
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$898.88	$1.2K	+$289.84	77% 9260-2717 (11977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$600.32	$1.2K	+$588.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$298.55	—	-$298.55
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 55¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$9.35	49% 4940-5115 (10055)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$566.03	$1.0K	+$462.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$472.06	—	-$472.06
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$1.0K	$826.73	-$183.47	56% 13457-10749 (24206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.6¢	$672.57	—	-$672.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$337.62	$826.73	+$489.1
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 43.7¢	$763.81	$1.1K	+$355.09	57% 7524-5785 (13309)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 39.3¢	$651.01	$829.69	+$178.68	57% 11726-8722 (20448)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.3¢	$325.7	$829.69	+$503.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$325.31	—	-$325.31
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 64.2¢	$746.51	$691.18	-$55.33	68% 98729-47027 (145756)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.3¢	$306.28	$691.18	+$384.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.2¢	$440.22	—	-$440.22
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$520.6	$447.56	-$73.04	56% 12187-9408 (21595)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$203.42	$447.56	+$244.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$317.18	—	-$317.18
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR	Upavg 79.6¢	$424.04	—	-$424.04	59% 22833-16022 (38855)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$406.72	$444.43	+$37.71	55% 7122-5828 (12950)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$237.19	$444.43	+$207.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$169.53	—	-$169.53
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 86.8¢	$332.56	—	-$332.56	55% 8356-6793 (15149)
TH thesidehustleCTR	Upavg 80¢	$357.62	—	-$357.62	54% 10336-8828 (19164)
RO Rock.San	Downavg 99.9¢	$268.62	$268.89	+$0.27	89% 11902-1414 (13316)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$309.25	$242.46	-$66.18	60% 11909-7821 (19730)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.6¢	$166.29	$242.46	+$73.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$139.52	—	-$139.52
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Upavg 88¢	$213.82	—	-$213.82	12% 17952-132766 (150718)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$9.06	—	-$9.06	52% 89240-83721 (172961)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 60.3¢	$122.2	—	-$122.2	57% 10097-7575 (17672)
ST std0CTR	Upavg 66.6¢	$147.55	—	-$147.55	67% 53089-26514 (79603)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 36.3¢	$151.8	$253.9	+$102.1	57% 69652-52957 (122609)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.5¢	$59.6	—	-$59.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$92.2	$253.9	+$161.7
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$70.94	—	-$70.94	66% 111485-57735 (169220)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$25.15	—	-$21.47	61% 93762-58955 (152717)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 89¢	$69.95	—	-$69.95	56% 57526-44427 (101953)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 85.1¢	$61.16	—	-$61.16	58% 60073-43849 (103922)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 88¢	$33.44	—	-$33.44	64% 39682-22653 (62335)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,613.6

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.4

Record

93%

22496-1730 (24226)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,489.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$212.07

Record

54%

15169-12706 (27875)

Both legs:

Down$494.338.7¢+$783.37

Up$995.4461.8¢-$995.44

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$898.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$289.84

Record

77%

9260-2717 (11977)

Both legs:

Down$600.3250.5¢+$588.39

Up$298.5538.2¢-$298.55

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,038.09

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.35

Record

49%

4940-5115 (10055)

Both legs:

Down$566.0355¢+$462.71

Up$472.0647.5¢-$472.06

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$1,010.2

Value

$826.73

PnL

-$183.47

Record

56%

13457-10749 (24206)

Both legs:

Up$672.5757.6¢-$672.57

Down$337.6240.8¢+$489.1

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$763.81

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$355.09

Record

57%

7524-5785 (13309)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$651.01

Value

$829.69

PnL

+$178.68

Record

57%

11726-8722 (20448)

Both legs:

Down$325.739.3¢+$503.99

Up$325.3153.2¢-$325.31

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$746.51

Value

$691.18

PnL

-$55.33

Record

68%

98729-47027 (145756)

Both legs:

Down$306.2844.3¢+$384.9

Up$440.2264.2¢-$440.22

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$520.6

Value

$447.56

PnL

-$73.04

Record

56%

12187-9408 (21595)

Both legs:

Down$203.4245.5¢+$244.14

Up$317.1851.8¢-$317.18

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR

Invested

$424.04

Value

—

PnL

-$424.04

Record

59%

22833-16022 (38855)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$406.72

Value

$444.43

PnL

+$37.71

Record

55%

7122-5828 (12950)

Both legs:

Down$237.1953.4¢+$207.24

Up$169.5354.2¢-$169.53

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$332.56

Value

—

PnL

-$332.56

Record

55%

8356-6793 (15149)

thesidehustleCTR

Invested

$357.62

Value

—

PnL

-$357.62

Record

54%

10336-8828 (19164)

Rock.San

Down

Invested

$268.62

Value

$268.89

PnL

+$0.27

Record

89%

11902-1414 (13316)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$309.25

Value

$242.46

PnL

-$66.18

Record

60%

11909-7821 (19730)

Both legs:

Down$166.2968.6¢+$73.34

Up$139.5257.5¢-$139.52

HsilverbasherCTR

Invested

$213.82

Value

—

PnL

-$213.82

Record

12%

17952-132766 (150718)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

—

PnL

-$9.06

Record

52%

89240-83721 (172961)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Invested

$122.2

Value

—

PnL

-$122.2

Record

57%

10097-7575 (17672)

std0CTR

Invested

$147.55

Value

—

PnL

-$147.55

Record

67%

53089-26514 (79603)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$151.8

Value

$253.9

PnL

+$102.1

Record

57%

69652-52957 (122609)

Both legs:

Up$59.674.5¢-$59.6

Down$92.236.3¢+$161.7

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$70.94

Value

—

PnL

-$70.94

Record

66%

111485-57735 (169220)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$25.15

Value

—

PnL

-$21.47

Record

61%

93762-58955 (152717)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$69.95

Value

—

PnL

-$69.95

Record

56%

57526-44427 (101953)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$61.16

Value

—

PnL

-$61.16

Record

58%

60073-43849 (103922)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$33.44

Value

—

PnL

-$33.44

Record

64%

39682-22653 (62335)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 21 top traders (24%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x441a11e1...6396e7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793182500

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $2.6K

+$26.4

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Down — $1.1K

+$355.09

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$178.68

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

CTR

Up — $0

-$424.04

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