Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$42.81

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares11,723

Combined PnL+$200.16

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,246

Combined PnL-$157.35

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$11.87	56% 3623-2807 (6430)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$3.61	59% 61948-42961 (104909)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.34	74% 102108-36301 (138409)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 95.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$16.12	57% 7524-5785 (13309)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$229.59	$215.78	-$13.81	54% 15169-12706 (27875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.3¢	$153.91	$215.78	+$61.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.5¢	$75.69	—	-$75.69
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 6.7¢	$39.38	—	-$39.38	12% 17952-132766 (150718)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$81	—	-$81	48% 23018-25090 (48108)
13 13897651	Downavg 67.3¢	$99.05	$147.25	+$48.2	29% 352-879 (1231)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 90.9¢	$177.45	$195.11	+$17.66	57% 69652-52957 (122609)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 71¢	$99.4	$140	+$40.6	56% 13457-10749 (24206)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 78.8¢	$104.43	$86	-$18.43	49% 4940-5115 (10055)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 88¢	$64.5	$62	-$2.5	55% 8356-6793 (15149)
└ Up leg	Upavg 7.8¢	$9.95	—	-$9.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 88¢	$54.55	$62	+$7.45
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$65.21	$79.85	+$14.64	56% 12187-9408 (21595)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Upavg 8.6¢	$11.22	—	-$11.22	54% 10336-8828 (19164)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$36.58	$44.6	+$8.02	55% 7122-5828 (12950)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 94¢	$56.4	$60	+$3.6	57% 10097-7575 (17672)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 88.2¢	$52.73	$59.77	+$7.04	61% 93762-58955 (152717)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 15.9¢	$15.46	—	-$15.46	46% 37827-44398 (82225)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 6.7¢	$6.45	—	-$6.45	49% 77489-80776 (158265)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 90.4¢	$49.69	$54.99	+$5.3	52% 89240-83721 (172961)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 67¢	$38.22	$31.75	-$6.47	59% 22833-16022 (38855)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 71¢	$35.54	$50.06	+$14.52	64% 39682-22653 (62335)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 74¢	$30	$40.54	+$10.54	66% 111485-57735 (169220)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64	60% 11909-7821 (19730)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 96¢	$23.88	$24.87	+$0.99	56% 57526-44427 (101953)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,937.14

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$11.87

Record

56%

3623-2807 (6430)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,268.09

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$3.61

Record

59%

61948-42961 (104909)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,320.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.34

Record

74%

102108-36301 (138409)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,113.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.12

Record

57%

7524-5785 (13309)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$229.59

Value

$215.78

PnL

-$13.81

Record

54%

15169-12706 (27875)

Both legs:

Down$153.9171.3¢+$61.88

Up$75.6927.5¢-$75.69

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$39.38

Value

—

PnL

-$39.38

Record

12%

17952-132766 (150718)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$81

Value

—

PnL

-$81

Record

48%

23018-25090 (48108)

13897651

Down

Invested

$99.05

Value

$147.25

PnL

+$48.2

Record

29%

352-879 (1231)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$177.45

Value

$195.11

PnL

+$17.66

Record

57%

69652-52957 (122609)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$99.4

Value

$140

PnL

+$40.6

Record

56%

13457-10749 (24206)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$104.43

Value

$86

PnL

-$18.43

Record

49%

4940-5115 (10055)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$64.5

Value

$62

PnL

-$2.5

Record

55%

8356-6793 (15149)

Both legs:

Up$9.957.8¢-$9.95

Down$54.5588¢+$7.45

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$65.21

Value

$79.85

PnL

+$14.64

Record

56%

12187-9408 (21595)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$11.22

Value

—

PnL

-$11.22

Record

54%

10336-8828 (19164)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$36.58

Value

$44.6

PnL

+$8.02

Record

55%

7122-5828 (12950)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$56.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$3.6

Record

57%

10097-7575 (17672)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$52.73

Value

$59.77

PnL

+$7.04

Record

61%

93762-58955 (152717)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$15.46

Value

—

PnL

-$15.46

Record

46%

37827-44398 (82225)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

—

PnL

-$6.45

Record

49%

77489-80776 (158265)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$49.69

Value

$54.99

PnL

+$5.3

Record

52%

89240-83721 (172961)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$38.22

Value

$31.75

PnL

-$6.47

Record

59%

22833-16022 (38855)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$35.54

Value

$50.06

PnL

+$14.52

Record

64%

39682-22653 (62335)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$30

Value

$40.54

PnL

+$10.54

Record

66%

111485-57735 (169220)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

—

PnL

-$2.64

Record

60%

11909-7821 (19730)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$23.88

Value

$24.87

PnL

+$0.99

Record

56%

57526-44427 (101953)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0f84fa37...b04cc1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793181900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$11.87

0x50f7

Down — $3.3K

+$3.61

BoneOhio

Down — $1.3K

+$13.34

wzbbb

Down — $1.1K

+$16.12

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Hsilverbasher

Up — $0

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

-$81

13897651

Down — $147.25

+$48.2

uninformedfloww

Down — $195.11

+$17.66

GoodFallen

Down — $140

+$40.6

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