Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

-$107.9

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,680

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,498

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc40f1e7c7b6392a4c4fe95b468c7f3448ca05a84-1792966481551ARB<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$12.8K	$17.6K	+$4.7K	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$6.4K	$17.6K	+$11.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$6.4K	—	$-6.4K
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$7.2K	$3.7K	$-3.5K	53% 322-287 (609)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$2.4K	$3.7K	+$1.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$4.8K	—	$-4.8K
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$99.03	49% 4932-5104 (10036)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$1.1K	$2.2K	+$1.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 40.4¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$323.38	51% 16918-16510 (33428)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.4¢	$425.99	$1.5K	+$1.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$750.58	—	-$750.58
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghARB<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$78.34	58% 1310-967 (2277)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.8¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$547.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$625.93	—	-$625.93
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202eARB<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$40.1	54% 1590-1367 (2957)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$594.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.3¢	$634.32	—	-$634.32
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 39.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$58.19	56% 13447-10742 (24189)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$671.45	$1.3K	+$643.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$701.42	—	-$701.42
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 50.1¢	$988.51	$1.5K	+$559.57	57% 69604-52928 (122532)
Bossgirl	Upavg 47.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$219.02	54% 4596-3917 (8513)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$989.32	$1.1K	+$109.74	56% 12179-9399 (21578)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.2¢	$518.79	$1.1K	+$580.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.6¢	$470.53	—	-$470.53
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$1.0K	$995.53	-$22.99	67% 53084-26509 (79593)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$512.17	$995.53	+$483.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$506.36	—	-$506.36
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$731.7	$784.77	+$53.07	55% 8349-6783 (15132)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$272.1	$784.77	+$512.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$459.59	—	-$459.59
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Downavg 34.6¢	$510.86	$366.88	-$143.98	53% 1987-1791 (3778)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.4¢	$247.22	$366.88	+$119.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$263.64	—	-$263.64
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$393.65	$427.72	+$34.07	57% 7509-5775 (13284)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$172.4	$427.72	+$255.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$221.26	—	-$221.26
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 30.1¢	$228.45	$479.56	+$251.1	46% 37814-44371 (82185)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.1¢	$144.18	$479.56	+$335.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.8¢	$84.27	—	-$84.27
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 53.3¢	$319.8	$600	+$280.2	48% 23010-25080 (48090)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 53.9¢	$291.52	$272.15	-$19.37	57% 11716-8714 (20430)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.9¢	$146.65	$272.15	+$125.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.3¢	$144.87	—	-$144.87
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 56.7¢	$516.77	—	-$516.77	77% 9255-2712 (11967)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 26.4¢	$113.85	$266.39	+$152.54	49% 77469-80748 (158217)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.4¢	$70.27	$266.39	+$196.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.1¢	$43.58	—	-$43.58
BE berlinskiesCTR	Downavg 85¢	$638.8	—	-$638.8	58% 5757-4225 (9982)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 73¢	$267.36	$264.09	-$3.28	59% 22806-15999 (38805)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$192.67	$264.09	+$71.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$74.7	—	-$74.7
AS asdaefef	Upavg 40¢	$148.6	$248.11	+$99.5	66% 124340-64008 (188348)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 32¢	$151.87	—	-$151.87	58% 60064-43843 (103907)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$127	$161.12	+$34.12	57% 10093-7573 (17666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.8¢	$85	$161.12	+$76.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.5¢	$42	—	-$42
13 13897651	Upavg 64.3¢	$138.3	$215.15	+$76.85	28% 343-872 (1215)

0xc40f1e7c7b6392a4c4fe95b468c7f3448ca05a84-1792966481551ARB<$100

Invested

$12,829.44

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$6,442.6736.7¢+$11.1K

Down$6,386.7754.7¢$-6.4K

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$7,166.28

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

53%

322-287 (609)

Both legs:

Up$2,355.7564¢+$1.3K

Down$4,810.5363.9¢$-4.8K

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$2,106.73

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$99.03

Record

49%

4932-5104 (10036)

Both legs:

Up$1,086.6149.3¢+$1.1K

Down$1,020.1246.3¢$-1.0K

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,176.57

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$323.38

Record

51%

16918-16510 (33428)

Both legs:

Up$425.9928.4¢+$1.1K

Down$750.5840.4¢-$750.58

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghARB<$100

Invested

$1,833.86

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$78.34

Record

58%

1310-967 (2277)

Both legs:

Up$1,207.9268.8¢+$547.6

Down$625.9353.4¢-$625.93

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202eARB<$100

Invested

$1,796.13

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$40.1

Record

54%

1590-1367 (2957)

Both legs:

Up$1,161.8166.2¢+$594.22

Down$634.3254.3¢-$634.32

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,372.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$58.19

Record

56%

13447-10742 (24189)

Both legs:

Up$671.4551.1¢+$643.24

Down$701.4239.4¢-$701.42

uninformedfloww

Invested

$988.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$559.57

Record

57%

69604-52928 (122532)

Bossgirl

Invested

$1,246.88

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$219.02

Record

54%

4596-3917 (8513)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$989.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$109.74

Record

56%

12179-9399 (21578)

Both legs:

Up$518.7947.2¢+$580.27

Down$470.5339.6¢-$470.53

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$1,018.52

Value

$995.53

PnL

-$22.99

Record

67%

53084-26509 (79593)

Both legs:

Up$512.1751.4¢+$483.36

Down$506.3650.6¢-$506.36

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$731.7

Value

$784.77

PnL

+$53.07

Record

55%

8349-6783 (15132)

Both legs:

Up$272.134.7¢+$512.67

Down$459.5935.5¢-$459.59

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Down

Invested

$510.86

Value

$366.88

PnL

-$143.98

Record

53%

1987-1791 (3778)

Both legs:

Up$247.2267.4¢+$119.66

Down$263.6434.6¢-$263.64

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$393.65

Value

$427.72

PnL

+$34.07

Record

57%

7509-5775 (13284)

Both legs:

Up$172.440.3¢+$255.32

Down$221.2644.9¢-$221.26

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$228.45

Value

$479.56

PnL

+$251.1

Record

46%

37814-44371 (82185)

Both legs:

Up$144.1830.1¢+$335.38

Down$84.2726.8¢-$84.27

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$319.8

Value

$600

PnL

+$280.2

Record

48%

23010-25080 (48090)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$291.52

Value

$272.15

PnL

-$19.37

Record

57%

11716-8714 (20430)

Both legs:

Up$146.6553.9¢+$125.5

Down$144.8729.3¢-$144.87

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$516.77

Value

—

PnL

-$516.77

Record

77%

9255-2712 (11967)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$113.85

Value

$266.39

PnL

+$152.54

Record

49%

77469-80748 (158217)

Both legs:

Up$70.2726.4¢+$196.12

Down$43.5823.1¢-$43.58

berlinskiesCTR

Down

Invested

$638.8

Value

—

PnL

-$638.8

Record

58%

5757-4225 (9982)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$267.36

Value

$264.09

PnL

-$3.28

Record

59%

22806-15999 (38805)

Both legs:

Up$192.6773¢+$71.42

Down$74.745¢-$74.7

asdaefef

Invested

$148.6

Value

$248.11

PnL

+$99.5

Record

66%

124340-64008 (188348)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$151.87

Value

—

PnL

-$151.87

Record

58%

60064-43843 (103907)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$127

Value

$161.12

PnL

+$34.12

Record

57%

10093-7573 (17666)

Both legs:

Up$8552.8¢+$76.12

Down$4238.5¢-$42

13897651

Invested

$138.3

Value

$215.15

PnL

+$76.85

Record

28%

343-872 (1215)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x013d3436...ee369a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793175000

Traders in this Market

0xc40f1e7c7b6392a4c4fe95b468c7f3448ca05a84-1792966481551

Arbitrage — excluded

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$78.34

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.5K

+$559.57

Bossgirl

Up — $1.5K

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded