Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 90% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 95%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$468.34

Smart Money Signal

19 of 21 top traders (90%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,699

Combined PnL+$486.34

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$18

Up — 90%Down — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$28.94	56% 29206-23027 (52233)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 92.1¢	$331.18	$326.81	-$4.37	60% 11899-7814 (19713)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$285.8	$275.84	-$9.96	59% 22806-15999 (38805)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$223.43	$275.84	+$52.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.6¢	$62.37	—	-$62.37
NIULAI4	Upavg 93¢	$325.5	$350	+$24.5	77% 9255-2712 (11967)
ST std0	Upavg 87.6¢	$290.62	$281.84	-$8.78	67% 53084-26509 (79593)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 80.7¢	$262.34	$268.22	+$5.88	56% 13447-10742 (24189)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 90.1¢	$225.48	$234	+$8.52	55% 43943-36416 (80359)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 74.6¢	$180.97	$242.41	+$61.43	57% 11716-8714 (20430)
13 13897651	Upavg 56.1¢	$224.16	$399.51	+$175.35	28% 343-872 (1215)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 75.7¢	$131.48	$99.69	-$31.78	57% 7509-5775 (13284)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.7¢	$75.46	$99.69	+$24.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.5¢	$56.01	—	-$56.01
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$165.36	$142.7	-$22.66	49% 4932-5104 (10036)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.3¢	$117.45	$142.7	+$25.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.4¢	$47.92	—	-$47.92
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 88.7¢	$149.22	$137	-$12.22	55% 7111-5821 (12932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.7¢	$121.48	$137	+$15.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.2¢	$27.74	—	-$27.74
machinelearned	Upavg 87.7¢	$129.14	$130	+$0.86	55% 8349-6783 (15132)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 73.9¢	$112.68	$124.13	+$11.45	56% 12179-9399 (21578)
Atomforge	Upavg 98¢	$120.54	$123	+$2.46	65% 3877-2090 (5967)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$70.73	$68	-$2.73	66% 124340-64008 (188348)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.5¢	$61.52	$68	+$6.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 4¢	$9.21	—	-$9.21
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 91¢	$76.29	$68.86	-$7.43	61% 93726-58934 (152660)
└ Up leg	Upavg 91¢	$62.68	$68.86	+$6.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 6.4¢	$13.61	—	-$13.61
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 85.5¢	$41.98	$46.57	+$4.59	52% 89215-83682 (172897)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.5¢	$39.8	$46.57	+$6.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$2.18	—	-$2.18
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$62.06	$83.96	+$21.9	66% 111454-57709 (169163)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 87¢	$59.12	$59.36	+$0.24	12% 17934-132761 (150695)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 87¢	$45.24	$52	+$6.76	49% 77469-80748 (158217)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 51¢	$21.35	$33.63	+$12.28	57% 10093-7573 (17666)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 91.8¢	$33.17	$36.15	+$2.98	65% 21441-11773 (33214)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 78¢	$23.4	$30	+$6.6	64% 39676-22644 (62320)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 90¢	$26.78	$29.75	+$2.98	58% 60064-43843 (103907)

THG.

Invested

$2,865.06

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$28.94

Record

56%

29206-23027 (52233)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$331.18

Value

$326.81

PnL

-$4.37

Record

60%

11899-7814 (19713)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$285.8

Value

$275.84

PnL

-$9.96

Record

59%

22806-15999 (38805)

Both legs:

Up$223.4381¢+$52.42

Down$62.3716.6¢-$62.37

NIULAI4

Invested

$325.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$24.5

Record

77%

9255-2712 (11967)

std0

Invested

$290.62

Value

$281.84

PnL

-$8.78

Record

67%

53084-26509 (79593)

GoodFallen

Invested

$262.34

Value

$268.22

PnL

+$5.88

Record

56%

13447-10742 (24189)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$225.48

Value

$234

PnL

+$8.52

Record

55%

43943-36416 (80359)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$180.97

Value

$242.41

PnL

+$61.43

Record

57%

11716-8714 (20430)

13897651

Invested

$224.16

Value

$399.51

PnL

+$175.35

Record

28%

343-872 (1215)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$131.48

Value

$99.69

PnL

-$31.78

Record

57%

7509-5775 (13284)

Both legs:

Up$75.4675.7¢+$24.23

Down$56.0112.5¢-$56.01

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$165.36

Value

$142.7

PnL

-$22.66

Record

49%

4932-5104 (10036)

Both legs:

Up$117.4582.3¢+$25.26

Down$47.9221.4¢-$47.92

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$149.22

Value

$137

PnL

-$12.22

Record

55%

7111-5821 (12932)

Both legs:

Up$121.4888.7¢+$15.52

Down$27.7416.2¢-$27.74

machinelearned

Invested

$129.14

Value

$130

PnL

+$0.86

Record

55%

8349-6783 (15132)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$112.68

Value

$124.13

PnL

+$11.45

Record

56%

12179-9399 (21578)

Atomforge

Invested

$120.54

Value

$123

PnL

+$2.46

Record

65%

3877-2090 (5967)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$70.73

Value

$68

PnL

-$2.73

Record

66%

124340-64008 (188348)

Both legs:

Up$61.5290.5¢+$6.48

Down$9.214¢-$9.21

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$76.29

Value

$68.86

PnL

-$7.43

Record

61%

93726-58934 (152660)

Both legs:

Up$62.6891¢+$6.18

Down$13.616.4¢-$13.61

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$41.98

Value

$46.57

PnL

+$4.59

Record

52%

89215-83682 (172897)

Both legs:

Up$39.885.5¢+$6.77

Down$2.181¢-$2.18

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$62.06

Value

$83.96

PnL

+$21.9

Record

66%

111454-57709 (169163)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$59.12

Value

$59.36

PnL

+$0.24

Record

12%

17934-132761 (150695)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$45.24

Value

$52

PnL

+$6.76

Record

49%

77469-80748 (158217)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$21.35

Value

$33.63

PnL

+$12.28

Record

57%

10093-7573 (17666)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$33.17

Value

$36.15

PnL

+$2.98

Record

65%

21441-11773 (33214)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$30

PnL

+$6.6

Record

64%

39676-22644 (62320)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$26.78

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$2.98

Record

58%

60064-43843 (103907)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 21 top traders (90%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6fbea5ca...671e84

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793174700

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.9K

+$28.94

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $326.81

-$4.37

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.96

NIULAI4

Up — $350

+$24.5

std0

Up — $281.84

-$8.78

GoodFallen

Up — $268.22

+$5.88

MayorMamdani

Up — $234

+$8.52

EZTRADENL2

Up — $242.41

+$61.43

13897651

Up — $399.51

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded