Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$609.91

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,115

Combined PnL+$866.71

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares291

Combined PnL-$256.81

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 24.4¢	$617.87	$534.97	-$82.91	57% 69604-52928 (122532)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.4¢	$336.92	—	-$336.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$280.95	$534.97	+$254.02
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$623.43	$613.37	-$10.05	56% 13447-10742 (24189)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$319.61	$613.37	+$293.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.8¢	$303.82	—	-$303.82
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$542.18	$552.9	+$10.72	49% 4932-5104 (10036)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.6¢	$262.9	$552.9	+$290
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$279.28	—	-$279.28
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$663.21	$450.25	-$212.97	55% 7111-5821 (12932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$219.99	$450.25	+$230.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$443.23	—	-$443.23
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 54.3¢	$414.92	$582.7	+$167.78	66% 111454-57709 (169163)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$356.02	$425.43	+$69.41	56% 12179-9399 (21578)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$235.5	$425.43	+$189.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$120.51	—	-$120.51
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$349.95	$336	-$13.95	57% 7509-5775 (13284)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.3¢	$158.84	$336	+$177.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$191.11	—	-$191.11
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 53.1¢	$290.32	$491.12	+$200.81	60% 11899-7814 (19713)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$361.2	$301.35	-$59.85	67% 53084-26509 (79593)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.6¢	$197.64	$301.35	+$103.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$163.57	—	-$163.57
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 95¢	$177.83	$105.17	-$72.66	49% 77469-80748 (158217)
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.5¢	$77.92	—	-$77.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 95¢	$99.91	$105.17	+$5.26
pspspsps5	Upavg 95.8¢	$264.35	$257.8	-$6.55	46% 37814-44371 (82185)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 39.1¢	$170.86	$132	-$38.86	57% 11716-8714 (20430)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.1¢	$110.47	—	-$110.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.8¢	$60.39	$132	+$71.61
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 96.6¢	$206.38	$173.71	-$32.67	52% 89215-83682 (172897)
└ Up leg	Upavg 96.6¢	$167.76	$173.71	+$5.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.2¢	$38.62	—	-$38.62
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 80.7¢	$137.71	$114	-$23.71	66% 124340-64008 (188348)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.7¢	$91.96	$114	+$22.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.4¢	$45.75	—	-$45.75
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR	Downavg 86.7¢	$159.94	—	-$159.94	59% 22806-15999 (38805)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 99¢	$154.27	$106	-$41.76	61% 93726-58934 (152660)
└ Up leg	Upavg 99¢	$104.94	$106	+$1.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.9¢	$26.44	—	-$42.78
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$89.8	$87	-$2.8	12% 17934-132761 (150695)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$47.64	$87	+$39.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.1¢	$42.16	—	-$42.16
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 29.1¢	$174.86	$599.99	+$425.13	48% 23010-25080 (48090)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$96.46	—	-$96.46	55% 8349-6783 (15132)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$40.45	$35.59	-$4.86	55% 43943-36416 (80359)
ohioism	Upavg 23¢	$23.01	$100.04	+$77.03	64% 39676-22644 (62320)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 87.5¢	$25.21	$23.23	-$1.98	65% 21441-11773 (33214)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.41	—	-$0.41	77% 9255-2712 (11967)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 97¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	93% 22483-1729 (24212)
RL RLWG<$100	Upavg 54¢	$10.8	$20	+$9.2	50% 7625-7648 (15273)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$617.87

Value

$534.97

PnL

-$82.91

Record

57%

69604-52928 (122532)

Both legs:

Down$336.9224.4¢-$336.92

Up$280.9552.5¢+$254.02

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$623.43

Value

$613.37

PnL

-$10.05

Record

56%

13447-10742 (24189)

Both legs:

Up$319.6152.1¢+$293.77

Down$303.8239.8¢-$303.82

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$542.18

Value

$552.9

PnL

+$10.72

Record

49%

4932-5104 (10036)

Both legs:

Up$262.947.6¢+$290

Down$279.2835.5¢-$279.28

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$663.21

Value

$450.25

PnL

-$212.97

Record

55%

7111-5821 (12932)

Both legs:

Up$219.9948.9¢+$230.26

Down$443.2356.9¢-$443.23

antsaslyku

Invested

$414.92

Value

$582.7

PnL

+$167.78

Record

66%

111454-57709 (169163)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$356.02

Value

$425.43

PnL

+$69.41

Record

56%

12179-9399 (21578)

Both legs:

Up$235.555.4¢+$189.92

Down$120.5139¢-$120.51

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$349.95

Value

$336

PnL

-$13.95

Record

57%

7509-5775 (13284)

Both legs:

Up$158.8447.3¢+$177.16

Down$191.1147.2¢-$191.11

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$290.32

Value

$491.12

PnL

+$200.81

Record

60%

11899-7814 (19713)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$361.2

Value

$301.35

PnL

-$59.85

Record

67%

53084-26509 (79593)

Both legs:

Up$197.6465.6¢+$103.72

Down$163.5750.9¢-$163.57

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$177.83

Value

$105.17

PnL

-$72.66

Record

49%

77469-80748 (158217)

Both legs:

Down$77.9221.5¢-$77.92

Up$99.9195¢+$5.26

pspspsps5

Invested

$264.35

Value

$257.8

PnL

-$6.55

Record

46%

37814-44371 (82185)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$170.86

Value

$132

PnL

-$38.86

Record

57%

11716-8714 (20430)

Both legs:

Down$110.4739.1¢-$110.47

Up$60.3945.8¢+$71.61

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$206.38

Value

$173.71

PnL

-$32.67

Record

52%

89215-83682 (172897)

Both legs:

Up$167.7696.6¢+$5.95

Down$38.6222.2¢-$38.62

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$137.71

Value

$114

PnL

-$23.71

Record

66%

124340-64008 (188348)

Both legs:

Up$91.9680.7¢+$22.04

Down$45.7525.4¢-$45.75

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR

Down

Invested

$159.94

Value

—

PnL

-$159.94

Record

59%

22806-15999 (38805)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$154.27

Value

$106

PnL

-$41.76

Record

61%

93726-58934 (152660)

Both legs:

Up$104.9499¢+$1.02

Down$26.4424.9¢-$42.78

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$89.8

Value

$87

PnL

-$2.8

Record

12%

17934-132761 (150695)

Both legs:

Up$47.6454.8¢+$39.36

Down$42.1630.1¢-$42.16

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$174.86

Value

$599.99

PnL

+$425.13

Record

48%

23010-25080 (48090)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$96.46

Value

—

PnL

-$96.46

Record

55%

8349-6783 (15132)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$40.45

Value

$35.59

PnL

-$4.86

Record

55%

43943-36416 (80359)

ohioism

Invested

$23.01

Value

$100.04

PnL

+$77.03

Record

64%

39676-22644 (62320)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$25.21

Value

$23.23

PnL

-$1.98

Record

65%

21441-11773 (33214)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.41

Value

—

PnL

-$0.41

Record

77%

9255-2712 (11967)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

93%

22483-1729 (24212)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.2

Record

50%

7625-7648 (15273)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x12771a25...cb3cca

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793174100

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$212.97

antsaslyku

Up — $582.7

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $491.12

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

OhioRiskManagement

Arbitrage — excluded