Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 92% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 92%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$156.72

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 25 top traders (92%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,326

Combined PnL+$545.76

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares602

Combined PnL-$389.04

Down — 92%Up — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$28.88	56% 29206-23027 (52233)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$27.83	93% 22483-1729 (24212)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Downavg 63¢	$434.59	$689.97	+$255.38	51% 866-841 (1707)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 64.3¢	$398.65	$415.01	+$16.35	57% 11716-8714 (20430)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 91.4¢	$312.77	$304.57	-$8.2	57% 7509-5775 (13284)
ST std0	Downavg 83.3¢	$276.52	$257.4	-$19.12	67% 53084-26509 (79593)
pspspsps5	Downavg 85.5¢	$292.17	$267.91	-$24.26	46% 37814-44371 (82185)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 70.9¢	$240.16	$238.38	-$1.78	49% 4932-5104 (10036)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 98.6¢	$231.4	$232.07	+$0.67	63% 51064-30076 (81140)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$146.01	$229.99	+$83.98	56% 13447-10742 (24189)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$93.81	$229.99	+$136.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.6¢	$52.2	—	-$52.2
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 70.1¢	$189.87	$209.07	+$19.21	60% 11899-7814 (19713)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 39¢	$117	$287.81	+$180.56	48% 23010-25080 (48090)
Atomforge	Downavg 63.7¢	$167.96	$182.68	+$14.72	65% 3877-2090 (5967)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 61.2¢	$223.75	—	-$223.75	28% 343-872 (1215)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 63.1¢	$150	$170.9	+$20.9	66% 111454-57709 (169163)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$103.12	$135	+$31.88	56% 12179-9399 (21578)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$44.82	—	-$44.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$58.3	$135	+$76.7
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 25.4¢	$175.8	$82.88	-$92.92	57% 69604-52928 (122532)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$44.8	$82.88	+$38.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.4¢	$131	—	-$131
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 81.9¢	$124.61	$109.28	-$15.33	55% 7111-5821 (12932)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 84¢	$142.17	$124.24	-$17.94	49% 77469-80748 (158217)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 70¢	$165.29	—	-$165.29	55% 8349-6783 (15132)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 39¢	$23.4	$59.99	+$36.6	50% 7625-7648 (15273)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 90¢	$23.87	$17.47	-$6.4	65% 21441-11773 (33214)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 72¢	$17.9	$15	-$2.9	55% 43943-36416 (80359)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 39¢	$11.76	$30.15	+$18.39	61% 93726-58934 (152660)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 39¢	$10.92	$28	+$17.08	52% 89215-83682 (172897)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,859.12

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$28.88

Record

56%

29206-23027 (52233)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,755.17

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$27.83

Record

93%

22483-1729 (24212)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down

Invested

$434.59

Value

$689.97

PnL

+$255.38

Record

51%

866-841 (1707)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$398.65

Value

$415.01

PnL

+$16.35

Record

57%

11716-8714 (20430)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$312.77

Value

$304.57

PnL

-$8.2

Record

57%

7509-5775 (13284)

std0

Down

Invested

$276.52

Value

$257.4

PnL

-$19.12

Record

67%

53084-26509 (79593)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$292.17

Value

$267.91

PnL

-$24.26

Record

46%

37814-44371 (82185)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$240.16

Value

$238.38

PnL

-$1.78

Record

49%

4932-5104 (10036)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$231.4

Value

$232.07

PnL

+$0.67

Record

63%

51064-30076 (81140)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.01

Value

$229.99

PnL

+$83.98

Record

56%

13447-10742 (24189)

Both legs:

Down$93.8140.8¢+$136.18

Up$52.231.6¢-$52.2

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$189.87

Value

$209.07

PnL

+$19.21

Record

60%

11899-7814 (19713)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$117

Value

$287.81

PnL

+$180.56

Record

48%

23010-25080 (48090)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$167.96

Value

$182.68

PnL

+$14.72

Record

65%

3877-2090 (5967)

13897651CTR

Invested

$223.75

Value

—

PnL

-$223.75

Record

28%

343-872 (1215)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$150

Value

$170.9

PnL

+$20.9

Record

66%

111454-57709 (169163)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$103.12

Value

$135

PnL

+$31.88

Record

56%

12179-9399 (21578)

Both legs:

Up$44.8239.9¢-$44.82

Down$58.343.2¢+$76.7

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$175.8

Value

$82.88

PnL

-$92.92

Record

57%

69604-52928 (122532)

Both legs:

Down$44.854.1¢+$38.08

Up$13125.4¢-$131

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$124.61

Value

$109.28

PnL

-$15.33

Record

55%

7111-5821 (12932)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$142.17

Value

$124.24

PnL

-$17.94

Record

49%

77469-80748 (158217)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$165.29

Value

—

PnL

-$165.29

Record

55%

8349-6783 (15132)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$23.4

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$36.6

Record

50%

7625-7648 (15273)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$23.87

Value

$17.47

PnL

-$6.4

Record

65%

21441-11773 (33214)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$17.9

Value

$15

PnL

-$2.9

Record

55%

43943-36416 (80359)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$11.76

Value

$30.15

PnL

+$18.39

Record

61%

93726-58934 (152660)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$10.92

Value

$28

PnL

+$17.08

Record

52%

89215-83682 (172897)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 25 top traders (92%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0fa36ba1...8eb970

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793173200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.9K

+$28.88

hoodquant

Down — $2.8K

+$27.83

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down — $689.97

+$255.38

EZTRADENL2

Down — $415.01

+$16.35

wzbbb

Down — $304.57

-$8.2

std0

Down — $257.4

-$19.12

pspspsps5

Down — $267.91

-$24.26

ply-pm0

Down — $238.38

-$1.78

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $232.07

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded