Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 85%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$197.26

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,704

Combined PnL+$468.42

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares434

Combined PnL-$271.16

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$12.27	77% 9255-2712 (11967)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$805.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$793.12	—	-$793.12
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$54.92	49% 4932-5104 (10036)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$606.13	$1.1K	+$491.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$436.9	—	-$436.9
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$747.05	$570.32	-$176.73	56% 13447-10742 (24189)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$486.84	—	-$486.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$260.21	$570.32	+$310.11
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 56.8¢	$576.42	$730.99	+$154.57	57% 7509-5775 (13284)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$679.26	$657.78	-$21.49	57% 11716-8714 (20430)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$360.83	$657.78	+$296.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$318.44	—	-$318.44
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$346.46	$210.42	-$136.04	57% 69604-52928 (122532)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.5¢	$255.66	—	-$255.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.2¢	$90.8	$210.42	+$119.62
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$353.28	$368.29	+$15.01	67% 53084-26509 (79593)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$174.81	$368.29	+$193.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$178.48	—	-$178.48
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$345.39	$304.64	-$40.76	56% 12179-9399 (21578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$194.92	—	-$194.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$150.48	$304.64	+$154.16
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 46¢	$285.93	$320.61	+$34.68	60% 11899-7814 (19713)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$147.53	$320.61	+$173.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$138.4	—	-$138.4
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 82¢	$325.86	$275.55	-$48.81	55% 7111-5821 (12932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82¢	$225.92	$275.55	+$47.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.3¢	$95.85	—	-$95.85
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$193.33	$219.22	+$25.89	46% 37814-44371 (82185)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$132.83	$219.22	+$86.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.9¢	$60.5	—	-$60.5
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$180.19	$222.24	+$42.05	49% 77469-80748 (158217)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$130.6	$222.24	+$91.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$49.59	—	-$49.59
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 30.8¢	$93.12	$281.63	+$198.17	48% 23010-25080 (48090)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 86.3¢	$205.91	$238.55	+$32.64	12% 17934-132761 (150695)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 47.5¢	$223.05	—	-$223.05	55% 8349-6783 (15132)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 48.9¢	$80.42	$88.95	+$8.53	66% 111454-57709 (169163)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$43.48	$88.95	+$45.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$36.93	—	-$36.93
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Upavg 98.7¢	$108.17	$86.11	-$22.06	63% 51064-30076 (81140)
└ Up leg	Upavg 98.7¢	$85.02	$86.11	+$1.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$23.15	—	-$23.15
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 65.2¢	$65.88	$101	+$35.12	58% 60064-43843 (103907)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$71.21	—	-$48.11	65% 21441-11773 (33214)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 95¢	$73.26	$77.12	+$3.86	61% 93726-58934 (152660)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 96¢	$73.26	$76.31	+$3.05	66% 124340-64008 (188348)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 96¢	$73.26	$76.31	+$3.05	52% 89215-83682 (172897)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$29.05	$55.16	+$26.11	28% 343-872 (1215)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 88.3¢	$35.34	$40	+$4.66	55% 43943-36416 (80359)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 67¢	$13.95	$20.82	+$6.87	56% 57515-44418 (101933)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,951.2

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$12.27

Record

77%

9255-2712 (11967)

Both legs:

Up$1,158.0859¢+$805.39

Down$793.1252.9¢-$793.12

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$1,043.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$54.92

Record

49%

4932-5104 (10036)

Both legs:

Up$606.1355.2¢+$491.82

Down$436.942.9¢-$436.9

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$747.05

Value

$570.32

PnL

-$176.73

Record

56%

13447-10742 (24189)

Both legs:

Down$486.8451.5¢-$486.84

Up$260.2145.6¢+$310.11

wzbbb

Invested

$576.42

Value

$730.99

PnL

+$154.57

Record

57%

7509-5775 (13284)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$679.26

Value

$657.78

PnL

-$21.49

Record

57%

11716-8714 (20430)

Both legs:

Up$360.8354.9¢+$296.95

Down$318.4449.7¢-$318.44

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$346.46

Value

$210.42

PnL

-$136.04

Record

57%

69604-52928 (122532)

Both legs:

Down$255.6644.5¢-$255.66

Up$90.843.2¢+$119.62

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$353.28

Value

$368.29

PnL

+$15.01

Record

67%

53084-26509 (79593)

Both legs:

Up$174.8147.5¢+$193.48

Down$178.4849.7¢-$178.48

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$345.39

Value

$304.64

PnL

-$40.76

Record

56%

12179-9399 (21578)

Both legs:

Down$194.9249¢-$194.92

Up$150.4849.4¢+$154.16

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$285.93

Value

$320.61

PnL

+$34.68

Record

60%

11899-7814 (19713)

Both legs:

Up$147.5346¢+$173.08

Down$138.455¢-$138.4

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$325.86

Value

$275.55

PnL

-$48.81

Record

55%

7111-5821 (12932)

Both legs:

Up$225.9282¢+$47.04

Down$95.8545.3¢-$95.85

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$193.33

Value

$219.22

PnL

+$25.89

Record

46%

37814-44371 (82185)

Both legs:

Up$132.8360.6¢+$86.39

Down$60.553.9¢-$60.5

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$180.19

Value

$222.24

PnL

+$42.05

Record

49%

77469-80748 (158217)

Both legs:

Up$130.658.8¢+$91.64

Down$49.5954.6¢-$49.59

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$93.12

Value

$281.63

PnL

+$198.17

Record

48%

23010-25080 (48090)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$205.91

Value

$238.55

PnL

+$32.64

Record

12%

17934-132761 (150695)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$223.05

Value

—

PnL

-$223.05

Record

55%

8349-6783 (15132)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$80.42

Value

$88.95

PnL

+$8.53

Record

66%

111454-57709 (169163)

Both legs:

Up$43.4848.9¢+$45.47

Down$36.9353.8¢-$36.93

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$108.17

Value

$86.11

PnL

-$22.06

Record

63%

51064-30076 (81140)

Both legs:

Up$85.0298.7¢+$1.09

Down$23.1547.2¢-$23.15

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$65.88

Value

$101

PnL

+$35.12

Record

58%

60064-43843 (103907)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$71.21

Value

—

PnL

-$48.11

Record

65%

21441-11773 (33214)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$73.26

Value

$77.12

PnL

+$3.86

Record

61%

93726-58934 (152660)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$73.26

Value

$76.31

PnL

+$3.05

Record

66%

124340-64008 (188348)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$73.26

Value

$76.31

PnL

+$3.05

Record

52%

89215-83682 (172897)

13897651<$100

Invested

$29.05

Value

$55.16

PnL

+$26.11

Record

28%

343-872 (1215)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$35.34

Value

$40

PnL

+$4.66

Record

55%

43943-36416 (80359)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

$20.82

PnL

+$6.87

Record

56%

57515-44418 (101933)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x719ab6da...d8fa6c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793172900

Traders in this Market

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Up — $730.99

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$34.68

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$48.81

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