Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$85.87

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 18 top traders (72%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,307

Combined PnL+$188.7

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares873

Combined PnL-$274.57

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.7¢	$537.32	$580.7	+$43.39	49% 4932-5104 (10036)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 72.2¢	$502.11	$464.77	-$37.35	57% 11716-8714 (20430)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.2¢	$335.63	$464.77	+$129.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.7¢	$166.48	—	-$166.48
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 71.5¢	$349.37	$391.33	+$45	55% 7111-5821 (12932)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$261.5	$237.69	-$23.81	56% 13447-10742 (24189)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.8¢	$151.66	$237.69	+$86.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.1¢	$109.84	—	-$109.84
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 65.6¢	$321.95	$271.52	-$50.43	60% 11899-7814 (19713)
NIULAI4	Downavg 87.4¢	$267.2	$305.86	+$38.66	77% 9255-2712 (11967)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$209.53	$210.94	+$1.41	67% 53084-26509 (79593)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$147.32	$210.94	+$63.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$62.21	—	-$62.21
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$220.12	$184	-$36.12	57% 7509-5775 (13284)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$124.52	$184	+$59.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$95.61	—	-$95.61
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$196.16	$197.6	+$1.44	56% 12179-9399 (21578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.2¢	$138.76	$197.6	+$58.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.4¢	$57.4	—	-$57.4
pspspsps5	Downavg 66.9¢	$181.93	$199.51	+$17.59	46% 37814-44371 (82185)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$117.29	$124	+$6.71	55% 8349-6783 (15132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$88.74	$124	+$35.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$28.55	—	-$28.55
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	$94.1	$98.56	+$4.46	63% 51064-30076 (81140)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 26.5¢	$93.24	—	-$93.24	57% 69604-52928 (122532)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 20.1¢	$69.1	—	-$69.1	48% 23010-25080 (48090)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 62.1¢	$105.67	—	-$105.67	28% 343-872 (1215)
ohioism	Downavg 74¢	$76.11	$102.85	+$26.74	64% 39676-22644 (62320)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 72¢	$73.11	$101.54	+$28.43	56% 57515-44418 (101933)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 73.9¢	$74.11	$100.34	+$26.23	58% 60064-43843 (103907)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$88.25	$75.31	-$12.94	49% 77469-80748 (158217)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 73.8¢	$44.26	$60	+$15.74	65% 21441-11773 (33214)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$9.93	$14.15	+$4.22	66% 111454-57709 (169163)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$6.55	—	-$6.55	55% 43943-36416 (80359)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 68¢	$3.4	$5	+$1.6	50% 7625-7648 (15273)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3622-2807 (6429)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$537.32

Value

$580.7

PnL

+$43.39

Record

49%

4932-5104 (10036)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$502.11

Value

$464.77

PnL

-$37.35

Record

57%

11716-8714 (20430)

Both legs:

Down$335.6372.2¢+$129.13

Up$166.4863.7¢-$166.48

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$349.37

Value

$391.33

PnL

+$45

Record

55%

7111-5821 (12932)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$261.5

Value

$237.69

PnL

-$23.81

Record

56%

13447-10742 (24189)

Both legs:

Down$151.6663.8¢+$86.03

Up$109.8426.1¢-$109.84

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$321.95

Value

$271.52

PnL

-$50.43

Record

60%

11899-7814 (19713)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$267.2

Value

$305.86

PnL

+$38.66

Record

77%

9255-2712 (11967)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$209.53

Value

$210.94

PnL

+$1.41

Record

67%

53084-26509 (79593)

Both legs:

Down$147.3269.8¢+$63.62

Up$62.2130.2¢-$62.21

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$220.12

Value

$184

PnL

-$36.12

Record

57%

7509-5775 (13284)

Both legs:

Down$124.5267.7¢+$59.48

Up$95.6139.3¢-$95.61

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.16

Value

$197.6

PnL

+$1.44

Record

56%

12179-9399 (21578)

Both legs:

Down$138.7670.2¢+$58.84

Up$57.433.4¢-$57.4

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$181.93

Value

$199.51

PnL

+$17.59

Record

46%

37814-44371 (82185)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$117.29

Value

$124

PnL

+$6.71

Record

55%

8349-6783 (15132)

Both legs:

Down$88.7471.6¢+$35.26

Up$28.5533.1¢-$28.55

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$94.1

Value

$98.56

PnL

+$4.46

Record

63%

51064-30076 (81140)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$93.24

Value

—

PnL

-$93.24

Record

57%

69604-52928 (122532)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$69.1

Value

—

PnL

-$69.1

Record

48%

23010-25080 (48090)

13897651CTR

Invested

$105.67

Value

—

PnL

-$105.67

Record

28%

343-872 (1215)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$76.11

Value

$102.85

PnL

+$26.74

Record

64%

39676-22644 (62320)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$73.11

Value

$101.54

PnL

+$28.43

Record

56%

57515-44418 (101933)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$74.11

Value

$100.34

PnL

+$26.23

Record

58%

60064-43843 (103907)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$88.25

Value

$75.31

PnL

-$12.94

Record

49%

77469-80748 (158217)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$44.26

Value

$60

PnL

+$15.74

Record

65%

21441-11773 (33214)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$9.93

Value

$14.15

PnL

+$4.22

Record

66%

111454-57709 (169163)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

—

PnL

-$6.55

Record

55%

43943-36416 (80359)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$3.4

Value

PnL

+$1.6

Record

50%

7625-7648 (15273)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3622-2807 (6429)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 18 top traders (72%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe6d37da5...98d029

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793172600

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Down — $580.7

+$43.39

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$37.35

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $391.33

+$45

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.81

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $271.52

-$50.43

NIULAI4

Down — $305.86

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Down — $199.51

+$17.59

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