Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$38

Smart Money Signal

19 of 25 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,676

Combined PnL+$432.35

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,045

Combined PnL-$470.35

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 73.5¢	$275.81	$365	+$89.19	57% 7509-5775 (13284)
ST std0	Upavg 68.9¢	$228.81	$253.32	+$24.5	67% 53084-26509 (79593)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 64.7¢	$273.12	$296.99	+$23.87	57% 11716-8714 (20430)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.2¢	$246.53	$242.52	-$4	49% 4932-5104 (10036)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 81.3¢	$219.78	$233.09	+$13.31	60% 11899-7814 (19713)
UpandDownSyndrome	Upavg 98.4¢	$186.86	$189.99	+$3.13	63% 51064-30076 (81140)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Downavg 29¢	$113.4	—	-$109.43	63% 1752-1016 (2768)
pspspsps5	Upavg 68.8¢	$139.36	$202.54	+$63.17	46% 37814-44371 (82185)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 66.9¢	$174.23	$182	+$7.77	56% 13447-10742 (24189)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.9¢	$121.7	$182	+$60.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$52.53	—	-$52.53
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 49¢	$147	$300	+$153	48% 23010-25080 (48090)
machinelearned	Upavg 76.8¢	$141.47	$152.89	+$11.42	55% 8349-6783 (15132)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Downavg 14.7¢	$129.91	—	-$129.91	51% 866-841 (1707)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 87.7¢	$116.64	$94.41	-$22.23	55% 7111-5821 (12932)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 29.5¢	$192.08	—	-$192.08	57% 69604-52928 (122532)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 82¢	$79.4	$60	-$19.4	56% 12179-9399 (21578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$30.2	—	-$30.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 82¢	$49.2	$60	+$10.8
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 67.3¢	$84.39	$125.44	+$41.05	49% 77469-80748 (158217)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 85.5¢	$51.28	$60	+$8.72	65% 21441-11773 (33214)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 29.6¢	$30.93	—	-$30.93	66% 111454-57709 (169163)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 98¢	$42.14	$43	+$0.86	61% 93726-58934 (152660)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 82¢	$45.56	$55.56	+$10	56% 57515-44418 (101933)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89.9¢	$22.68	$25.24	+$2.56	66% 124340-64008 (188348)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 51¢	$11.42	$22.39	+$10.97	12% 17934-132761 (150695)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$6.2	—	-$6.2	50% 7625-7648 (15273)
TH THG.<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	56% 29206-23027 (52233)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 69.3¢	$6.28	$9.06	+$2.78	55% 43943-36416 (80359)

wzbbb

Invested

$275.81

Value

$365

PnL

+$89.19

Record

57%

7509-5775 (13284)

std0

Invested

$228.81

Value

$253.32

PnL

+$24.5

Record

67%

53084-26509 (79593)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$273.12

Value

$296.99

PnL

+$23.87

Record

57%

11716-8714 (20430)

ply-pm0

Invested

$246.53

Value

$242.52

PnL

-$4

Record

49%

4932-5104 (10036)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$219.78

Value

$233.09

PnL

+$13.31

Record

60%

11899-7814 (19713)

UpandDownSyndrome

Invested

$186.86

Value

$189.99

PnL

+$3.13

Record

63%

51064-30076 (81140)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Down

Invested

$113.4

Value

—

PnL

-$109.43

Record

63%

1752-1016 (2768)

pspspsps5

Invested

$139.36

Value

$202.54

PnL

+$63.17

Record

46%

37814-44371 (82185)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$174.23

Value

$182

PnL

+$7.77

Record

56%

13447-10742 (24189)

Both legs:

Up$121.766.9¢+$60.3

Down$52.5333.6¢-$52.53

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$147

Value

$300

PnL

+$153

Record

48%

23010-25080 (48090)

machinelearned

Invested

$141.47

Value

$152.89

PnL

+$11.42

Record

55%

8349-6783 (15132)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Down

Invested

$129.91

Value

—

PnL

-$129.91

Record

51%

866-841 (1707)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$116.64

Value

$94.41

PnL

-$22.23

Record

55%

7111-5821 (12932)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$192.08

Value

—

PnL

-$192.08

Record

57%

69604-52928 (122532)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$79.4

Value

$60

PnL

-$19.4

Record

56%

12179-9399 (21578)

Both legs:

Down$30.233.6¢-$30.2

Up$49.282¢+$10.8

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$84.39

Value

$125.44

PnL

+$41.05

Record

49%

77469-80748 (158217)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$51.28

Value

$60

PnL

+$8.72

Record

65%

21441-11773 (33214)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.93

Value

—

PnL

-$30.93

Record

66%

111454-57709 (169163)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$42.14

Value

$43

PnL

+$0.86

Record

61%

93726-58934 (152660)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$45.56

Value

$55.56

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

57515-44418 (101933)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$22.68

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$2.56

Record

66%

124340-64008 (188348)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$11.42

Value

$22.39

PnL

+$10.97

Record

12%

17934-132761 (150695)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.2

Value

—

PnL

-$6.2

Record

50%

7625-7648 (15273)

THG.<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

29206-23027 (52233)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$6.28

Value

$9.06

PnL

+$2.78

Record

55%

43943-36416 (80359)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 25 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe2c523e5...3f39aa

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793172300

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $365

+$89.19

std0

Up — $253.32

+$24.5

EZTRADENL2

Up — $296.99

+$23.87

ply-pm0

Up — $242.52

-$4

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $233.09

+$13.31

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $189.99

+$3.13

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

CTR

Down — $0

-$109.43

pspspsps5

Up — $202.54

+$63.17

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.77

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

+$153

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