Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 52%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$316.63

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,386

Combined PnL+$716.81

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,598

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 55.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$129.44	66% 98450-50905 (149355)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 35.6¢	$598.3	$548.25	-$50.06	56% 13426-10728 (24154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.6¢	$324.86	—	-$324.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$273.44	$548.25	+$274.81
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$551.8	$484.85	-$66.95	57% 7485-5749 (13234)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$313.38	—	-$313.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$238.42	$484.85	+$246.43
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$503.87	$388.36	-$115.52	56% 12161-9384 (21545)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$313.87	—	-$313.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$190.01	$388.36	+$198.35
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 47.1¢	$410.45	—	-$410.45	49% 4915-5086 (10001)
NIULAI4	Upavg 74.2¢	$670.07	$902.94	+$232.88	77% 9247-2703 (11950)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 75.6¢	$510.97	$489.08	-$21.89	57% 11697-8698 (20395)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.6¢	$369.9	$489.08	+$119.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.6¢	$141.07	—	-$141.07
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 44.3¢	$309.87	—	-$309.87	68% 98678-46986 (145664)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$220.64	$175.53	-$41.66	60% 11881-7798 (19679)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.6¢	$138.87	—	-$138.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$78.39	$175.53	+$97.14
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 57.5¢	$209.49	$302.49	+$92.99	55% 7092-5806 (12898)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 48.6¢	$145.74	$300	+$154.26	48% 22997-25056 (48053)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 78.6¢	$205.07	$184.62	-$20.45	66% 124265-63963 (188228)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.6¢	$145.05	$184.62	+$39.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$60.02	—	-$60.02
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 54¢	$134.13	$135	+$0.87	12% 17911-132734 (150645)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$79.95	—	-$79.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$54.19	$135	+$80.81
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$136.01	$153.27	+$17.26	55% 23571-19073 (42644)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$109.42	$153.27	+$43.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.5¢	$26.59	—	-$26.59
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 34.3¢	$50.4	—	-$50.4	57% 69319-52768 (122087)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 29.3¢	$90.39	—	-$90.39	66% 111403-57662 (169065)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$21.54	—	-$21.54	52% 89153-83609 (172762)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$44.35	—	-$44.35	55% 8329-6768 (15097)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$81.32	$43.74	-$31.48	61% 93655-58890 (152545)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 17.4¢	$11.97	$68.82	+$56.85	46% 37796-44311 (82107)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$23.01	$28.44	+$5.43	63% 50924-30036 (80960)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Downavg 87¢	$29.74	—	-$29.74	50% 644-644 (1288)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$26.92	—	-$19.15	65% 21160-11608 (32768)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 32.1¢	$15.4	$28.15	+$12.75	56% 57485-44407 (101892)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 13.9¢	$6.83	$49	+$42.17	49% 77370-80568 (157938)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,497.72

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$129.44

Record

66%

98450-50905 (149355)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$598.3

Value

$548.25

PnL

-$50.06

Record

56%

13426-10728 (24154)

Both legs:

Down$324.8635.6¢-$324.86

Up$273.4449.9¢+$274.81

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$551.8

Value

$484.85

PnL

-$66.95

Record

57%

7485-5749 (13234)

Both legs:

Down$313.3846.6¢-$313.38

Up$238.4249.2¢+$246.43

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$503.87

Value

$388.36

PnL

-$115.52

Record

56%

12161-9384 (21545)

Both legs:

Down$313.8753.5¢-$313.87

Up$190.0148.9¢+$198.35

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$410.45

Value

—

PnL

-$410.45

Record

49%

4915-5086 (10001)

NIULAI4

Invested

$670.07

Value

$902.94

PnL

+$232.88

Record

77%

9247-2703 (11950)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$510.97

Value

$489.08

PnL

-$21.89

Record

57%

11697-8698 (20395)

Both legs:

Up$369.975.6¢+$119.18

Down$141.0766.6¢-$141.07

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$309.87

Value

—

PnL

-$309.87

Record

68%

98678-46986 (145664)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$220.64

Value

$175.53

PnL

-$41.66

Record

60%

11881-7798 (19679)

Both legs:

Down$138.8767.6¢-$138.8

Up$78.3944.7¢+$97.14

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$209.49

Value

$302.49

PnL

+$92.99

Record

55%

7092-5806 (12898)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$145.74

Value

$300

PnL

+$154.26

Record

48%

22997-25056 (48053)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$205.07

Value

$184.62

PnL

-$20.45

Record

66%

124265-63963 (188228)

Both legs:

Up$145.0578.6¢+$39.57

Down$60.0249.5¢-$60.02

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$134.13

Value

$135

PnL

+$0.87

Record

12%

17911-132734 (150645)

Both legs:

Down$79.9554¢-$79.95

Up$54.1940.1¢+$80.81

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$136.01

Value

$153.27

PnL

+$17.26

Record

55%

23571-19073 (42644)

Both legs:

Up$109.4271.4¢+$43.85

Down$26.5938.5¢-$26.59

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.4

Value

—

PnL

-$50.4

Record

57%

69319-52768 (122087)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$90.39

Value

—

PnL

-$90.39

Record

66%

111403-57662 (169065)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.54

Value

—

PnL

-$21.54

Record

52%

89153-83609 (172762)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.35

Value

—

PnL

-$44.35

Record

55%

8329-6768 (15097)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$81.32

Value

$43.74

PnL

-$31.48

Record

61%

93655-58890 (152545)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$11.97

Value

$68.82

PnL

+$56.85

Record

46%

37796-44311 (82107)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$23.01

Value

$28.44

PnL

+$5.43

Record

63%

50924-30036 (80960)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.74

Value

—

PnL

-$29.74

Record

50%

644-644 (1288)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.92

Value

—

PnL

-$19.15

Record

65%

21160-11608 (32768)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$15.4

Value

$28.15

PnL

+$12.75

Record

56%

57485-44407 (101892)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$6.83

Value

$49

PnL

+$42.17

Record

49%

77370-80568 (157938)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7a666348...7fe700

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793163900

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $1.6K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $0

NIULAI4

Up — $902.94

+$232.88

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$21.89

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

-$309.87

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$41.66

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $302.49

+$92.99

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