Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 71%
2 arb excluded
$6.0K
$226.53
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$2.16 | 59% 61913-42908 (104821) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 93.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$57.72 | 57% 7485-5749 (13234) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78.2¢ | $671.99 | $683.68 | +$11.7 | 66% 98450-50905 (149355) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 82.4¢ | $778.77 | $945.14 | +$166.37 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $171.26 | $230.99 | +$59.73 | 57% 11697-8698 (20395) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 76.9¢ | $154.77 | $145.53 | -$9.24 | 49% 4915-5086 (10001) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 93¢ | $197.07 | $211.91 | +$14.83 | 48% 22997-25056 (48053) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 87.1¢ | $115.53 | $132.67 | +$17.14 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.5¢ | $14.32 | — | -$14.32 | 46% 37796-44311 (82107) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $92.29 | $81.88 | -$10.41 | 56% 13426-10728 (24154) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.4¢ | $59.31 | $81.88 | +$22.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.9¢ | $32.98 | — | -$32.98 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $85.6 | $55 | -$30.6 | 55% 8329-6768 (15097) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39¢ | $39 | — | -$39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.7¢ | $46.6 | $55 | +$8.4 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.6¢ | $13.17 | — | -$13.17 | 49% 77370-80568 (157938) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $50.68 | $55.76 | +$5.08 | 61% 93655-58890 (152545) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $47.06 | $54.25 | +$7.19 | 66% 124265-63963 (188228) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $47.29 | $33.33 | -$13.96 | 55% 7092-5806 (12898) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $21.3 | $20 | -$1.3 | 56% 12161-9384 (21545) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $42 | $50 | +$8 | 55% 23571-19073 (42644) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $22.14 | $21.53 | -$0.61 | 52% 89153-83609 (172762) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $14.75 | $25 | +$10.25 | 66% 111403-57662 (169065) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $10.01 | — | -$10.01 | 56% 57485-44407 (101892) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $9.72 | — | -$9.72 | 58% 50724-36860 (87584) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.2¢ | $10.31 | — | -$8.81 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $56.36 | — | -$51.36 | — |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $2.48 | — | -$1.13 | 60% 11881-7798 (19679) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3622-2807 (6429) |
Invested
$2,155.05
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$2.16
Record
59%
61913-42908 (104821)
Invested
$1,019.55
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$57.72
Record
57%
7485-5749 (13234)
Invested
$671.99
Value
$683.68
PnL
+$11.7
Record
66%
98450-50905 (149355)
Invested
$778.77
Value
$945.14
PnL
+$166.37
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
Invested
$171.26
Value
$230.99
PnL
+$59.73
Record
57%
11697-8698 (20395)
Invested
$154.77
Value
$145.53
PnL
-$9.24
Record
49%
4915-5086 (10001)
Invested
$197.07
Value
$211.91
PnL
+$14.83
Record
48%
22997-25056 (48053)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$115.53
Value
$132.67
PnL
+$17.14
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$14.32
Value
—
PnL
-$14.32
Record
46%
37796-44311 (82107)
Invested
$92.29
Value
$81.88
PnL
-$10.41
Record
56%
13426-10728 (24154)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$85.6
Value
$55
PnL
-$30.6
Record
55%
8329-6768 (15097)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$13.17
Value
—
PnL
-$13.17
Record
49%
77370-80568 (157938)
Invested
$50.68
Value
$55.76
PnL
+$5.08
Record
61%
93655-58890 (152545)
Invested
$47.06
Value
$54.25
PnL
+$7.19
Record
66%
124265-63963 (188228)
Invested
$47.29
Value
$33.33
PnL
-$13.96
Record
55%
7092-5806 (12898)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$21.3
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.3
Record
56%
12161-9384 (21545)
Invested
$42
Value
$50
PnL
+$8
Record
55%
23571-19073 (42644)
Invested
$22.14
Value
$21.53
PnL
-$0.61
Record
52%
89153-83609 (172762)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$10.25
Record
66%
111403-57662 (169065)
Invested
$10.01
Value
—
PnL
-$10.01
Record
56%
57485-44407 (101892)
Invested
$9.72
Value
—
PnL
-$9.72
Record
58%
50724-36860 (87584)
Invested
$10.31
Value
—
PnL
-$8.81
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
Invested
$56.36
Value
—
PnL
-$51.36
Record
—
Invested
$2.48
Value
—
PnL
-$1.13
Record
60%
11881-7798 (19679)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3622-2807 (6429)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $2.2K
wzbbb
Down — $1.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $683.68
uninformedfloww
Down — $945.14
EZTRADENL2
Down — $230.99
ply-pm0
Down — $145.53
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $211.91
MayorMamdani
Down — $132.67
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded