Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Up 64%
2 arb excluded
$6.3K
-$329.18
Smart Money Signal
16 of 26 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$28.77 | 56% 29201-23026 (52227) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 96.3¢ | $728.15 | $730.09 | +$1.94 | 57% 7485-5749 (13234) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 92.7¢ | $575.8 | $344.99 | -$230.81 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $390.72 | $443.53 | +$52.82 | 66% 98450-50905 (149355) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73¢ | $323.59 | $443.53 | +$119.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.9¢ | $67.13 | — | -$67.13 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 84.1¢ | $268.17 | $246.74 | -$21.44 | 49% 4915-5086 (10001) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 53.7¢ | $135.88 | $236.18 | +$100.3 | 55% 8329-6768 (15097) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 99¢ | $231.1 | $224 | -$7.1 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 90.6¢ | $197.19 | $198.32 | +$1.14 | 55% 7092-5806 (12898) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 87.6¢ | $253.9 | $277.57 | +$23.67 | 12% 17911-132734 (150645) |
13 13897651CTR | Downavg 61.8¢ | $198.82 | — | -$198.82 | — |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 54¢ | $161.79 | — | -$161.79 | 57% 11697-8698 (20395) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 87.2¢ | $169.88 | $194.75 | +$24.87 | 74% 102066-36293 (138359) |
 ohioism | Upavg 88¢ | $132.16 | $150.18 | +$18.02 | 64% 39652-22624 (62276) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 35.4¢ | $62.01 | $60 | -$2.01 | 56% 13426-10728 (24154) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.4¢ | $31.41 | — | -$31.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $30.6 | $60 | +$29.4 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $107.44 | $119.22 | +$11.78 | 58% 60038-43826 (103864) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 83.1¢ | $66.87 | $58.72 | +$11.33 | 61% 93655-58890 (152545) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $42.79 | — | -$42.79 | 66% 111403-57662 (169065) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $36.09 | $39.65 | +$3.56 | 52% 89153-83609 (172762) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 83.1¢ | $52.72 | $63.41 | +$10.69 | 66% 124265-63963 (188228) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.7¢ | $8.13 | — | -$8.13 | 55% 23571-19073 (42644) |
VE Vega7CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 74% 2941-1025 (3966) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $19.74 | — | -$19.74 | 56% 12161-9384 (21545) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Downavg 3¢ | $144.03 | — | +$146 | 48% 22997-25056 (48053) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 62.4¢ | $16.37 | $19.07 | +$2.7 | 60% 11881-7798 (19679) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $23 | $26.44 | +$3.44 | 65% 3868-2085 (5953) |
Invested
$2,848.23
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$28.77
Record
56%
29201-23026 (52227)
Invested
$728.15
Value
$730.09
PnL
+$1.94
Record
57%
7485-5749 (13234)
Invested
$575.8
Value
$344.99
PnL
-$230.81
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
Invested
$390.72
Value
$443.53
PnL
+$52.82
Record
66%
98450-50905 (149355)
Both legs:
Invested
$268.17
Value
$246.74
PnL
-$21.44
Record
49%
4915-5086 (10001)
machinelearnedInvested
$135.88
Value
$236.18
PnL
+$100.3
Record
55%
8329-6768 (15097)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$231.1
Value
$224
PnL
-$7.1
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
Invested
$197.19
Value
$198.32
PnL
+$1.14
Record
55%
7092-5806 (12898)
Invested
$253.9
Value
$277.57
PnL
+$23.67
Record
12%
17911-132734 (150645)
Invested
$198.82
Value
—
PnL
-$198.82
Record
—
Invested
$161.79
Value
—
PnL
-$161.79
Record
57%
11697-8698 (20395)
BoneOhioInvested
$169.88
Value
$194.75
PnL
+$24.87
Record
74%
102066-36293 (138359)
ohioismInvested
$132.16
Value
$150.18
PnL
+$18.02
Record
64%
39652-22624 (62276)
Invested
$62.01
Value
$60
PnL
-$2.01
Record
56%
13426-10728 (24154)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.44
Value
$119.22
PnL
+$11.78
Record
58%
60038-43826 (103864)
Invested
$66.87
Value
$58.72
PnL
+$11.33
Record
61%
93655-58890 (152545)
Invested
$42.79
Value
—
PnL
-$42.79
Record
66%
111403-57662 (169065)
Invested
$36.09
Value
$39.65
PnL
+$3.56
Record
52%
89153-83609 (172762)
Invested
$52.72
Value
$63.41
PnL
+$10.69
Record
66%
124265-63963 (188228)
Invested
$8.13
Value
—
PnL
-$8.13
Record
55%
23571-19073 (42644)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
74%
2941-1025 (3966)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$19.74
Value
—
PnL
-$19.74
Record
56%
12161-9384 (21545)
Invested
$144.03
Value
—
PnL
+$146
Record
48%
22997-25056 (48053)
Invested
$16.37
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$2.7
Record
60%
11881-7798 (19679)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$23
Value
$26.44
PnL
+$3.44
Record
65%
3868-2085 (5953)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Up — $2.9K
wzbbb
Up — $730.09
uninformedfloww
Up — $344.99
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $246.74
machinelearned
Up — $236.18
MayorMamdani
Up — $224
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $198.32
Hsilverbasher
Up — $277.57
13897651
CTRDown — $0