Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$544.74

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 28 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,643

Combined PnL+$939.01

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,552

Combined PnL-$394.27

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 34.5¢	$209.31	$420.62	+$211.31	56% 13426-10728 (24154)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 53.8¢	$267.05	$328.24	+$61.19	57% 11697-8698 (20395)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 46.5¢	$301.12	$503	+$201.88	66% 98450-50905 (149355)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 50.1¢	$189.54	—	-$189.54	49% 4915-5086 (10001)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 31.7¢	$117.04	$286.34	+$169.29	56% 12161-9384 (21545)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 65.4¢	$163.28	$88	-$75.28	60% 11881-7798 (19679)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.4¢	$118.4	—	-$118.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$44.88	$88	+$43.12
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 65.6¢	$95.06	$141.5	+$46.44	55% 7092-5806 (12898)
machinelearned	Downavg 60¢	$78.49	$125.07	+$46.58	55% 8329-6768 (15097)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 90.6¢	$147.72	$112.94	-$34.78	66% 124265-63963 (188228)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$78.78	—	-$78.78	12% 17911-132734 (150645)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$60.81	$93.11	+$32.29	57% 69319-52768 (122087)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 46.8¢	$73.59	—	-$73.59	74% 102066-36293 (138359)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$56.19	$74	+$17.81	57% 7485-5749 (13234)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 87.8¢	$58.07	$66.12	+$8.05	62% 43544-26468 (70012)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.7¢	$39.33	—	-$39.33	59% 61913-42908 (104821)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 47¢	$56.85	$78.88	+$22.03	66% 111403-57662 (169065)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 99¢	$51.52	$52.04	+$0.52	63% 50924-30036 (80960)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$50	$95.09	+$45.09	53% 158-139 (297)
ohioism	Downavg 50¢	$50.2	$100.39	+$50.2	64% 39652-22624 (62276)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 13¢	$6.65	$26	+$19.35	49% 77370-80568 (157938)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 85¢	$14.88	$17.51	+$2.63	65% 3868-2085 (5953)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 94¢	$33.25	$16.65	-$15.4	65% 21160-11608 (32768)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$18.04	$24.07	+$6.48	61% 93655-58890 (152545)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 21¢	$6.64	$31.64	+$25	55% 23571-19073 (42644)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$13.02	—	-$13.02	55% 43897-36336 (80233)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$209.31

Value

$420.62

PnL

+$211.31

Record

56%

13426-10728 (24154)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$267.05

Value

$328.24

PnL

+$61.19

Record

57%

11697-8698 (20395)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$301.12

Value

$503

PnL

+$201.88

Record

66%

98450-50905 (149355)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$189.54

Value

—

PnL

-$189.54

Record

49%

4915-5086 (10001)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$117.04

Value

$286.34

PnL

+$169.29

Record

56%

12161-9384 (21545)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$163.28

Value

$88

PnL

-$75.28

Record

60%

11881-7798 (19679)

Both legs:

Up$118.465.4¢-$118.4

Down$44.8851¢+$43.12

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$95.06

Value

$141.5

PnL

+$46.44

Record

55%

7092-5806 (12898)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$78.49

Value

$125.07

PnL

+$46.58

Record

55%

8329-6768 (15097)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$147.72

Value

$112.94

PnL

-$34.78

Record

66%

124265-63963 (188228)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$78.78

Value

—

PnL

-$78.78

Record

12%

17911-132734 (150645)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$60.81

Value

$93.11

PnL

+$32.29

Record

57%

69319-52768 (122087)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$73.59

Value

—

PnL

-$73.59

Record

74%

102066-36293 (138359)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$56.19

Value

$74

PnL

+$17.81

Record

57%

7485-5749 (13234)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$58.07

Value

$66.12

PnL

+$8.05

Record

62%

43544-26468 (70012)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$39.33

Value

—

PnL

-$39.33

Record

59%

61913-42908 (104821)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$56.85

Value

$78.88

PnL

+$22.03

Record

66%

111403-57662 (169065)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$51.52

Value

$52.04

PnL

+$0.52

Record

63%

50924-30036 (80960)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584<$100

Down

Invested

$50

Value

$95.09

PnL

+$45.09

Record

53%

158-139 (297)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$50.2

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$50.2

Record

64%

39652-22624 (62276)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$6.65

Value

$26

PnL

+$19.35

Record

49%

77370-80568 (157938)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$14.88

Value

$17.51

PnL

+$2.63

Record

65%

3868-2085 (5953)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$33.25

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$15.4

Record

65%

21160-11608 (32768)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$18.04

Value

$24.07

PnL

+$6.48

Record

61%

93655-58890 (152545)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$6.64

Value

$31.64

PnL

+$25

Record

55%

23571-19073 (42644)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$13.02

Value

—

PnL

-$13.02

Record

55%

43897-36336 (80233)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 28 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x07a9b3b8...e2c852

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793162700

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Down — $420.62

+$211.31

EZTRADENL2

Down — $328.24

+$61.19

Bonereaper

Down — $503

+$201.88

ply-pm0

CTR

Up — $0

-$189.54

FairValueMachine

Down — $286.34

+$169.29

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$75.28

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $141.5

+$46.44

machinelearned

Down — $125.07

+$46.58

asdaefef

Down — $112.94

Hsilverbasher

Up — $0