Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$63.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,256

Combined PnL+$224.54

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,014

Combined PnL-$287.67

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$28.75	56% 29201-23026 (52227)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$22.37	74% 102066-36293 (138359)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 69.7¢	$961.04	$939	-$22.04	66% 98450-50905 (149355)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 69.1¢	$159.87	$189.2	+$29.33	12% 17911-132734 (150645)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 48.4¢	$141.39	$244.46	+$103.07	57% 11697-8698 (20395)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 88.8¢	$183.17	$181	-$2.17	60% 11881-7798 (19679)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$108.56	$98.95	-$9.6	49% 4915-5086 (10001)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$54.33	$98.95	+$44.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.6¢	$54.22	—	-$54.22
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$102.03	$87.91	-$14.12	57% 7485-5749 (13234)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$58.49	$87.91	+$29.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$43.54	—	-$43.54
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$102.33	$93.91	-$8.41	56% 13426-10728 (24154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$52.76	$93.91	+$41.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.4¢	$49.57	—	-$49.57
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 23.3¢	$86.57	—	-$61.57	48% 22997-25056 (48053)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 89.8¢	$119.53	$91.92	-$27.61	55% 7092-5806 (12898)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 77.3¢	$110.43	$105.94	-$4.49	66% 124265-63963 (188228)
13 13897651	Downavg 67.7¢	$112.37	$165.65	+$53.28	—
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$59.78	$92.08	+$32.3	56% 12161-9384 (21545)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$67.34	$35.83	-$31.51	66% 111403-57662 (169065)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.7¢	$42.69	—	-$42.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$24.65	$35.83	+$11.18
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 75¢	$51.5	$50	-$1.5	55% 23571-19073 (42644)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 92¢	$47.8	$48.43	+$0.63	49% 77370-80568 (157938)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$29.02	—	-$29.02	58% 60038-43826 (103864)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$38.71	—	-$38.71	52% 89153-83609 (172762)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 22.5¢	$98.35	—	-$98.35	55% 8329-6768 (15097)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$47.79	—	-$26.51	61% 93655-58890 (152545)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$25	—	-$25	53% 158-139 (297)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$2.79	—	-$2.79	46% 37796-44311 (82107)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50¢	$12.51	$25.01	+$12.51	58% 50724-36860 (87584)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$10.89	$11	+$0.11	93% 22430-1725 (24155)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,846.25

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$28.75

Record

56%

29201-23026 (52227)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,214.79

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$22.37

Record

74%

102066-36293 (138359)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$961.04

Value

$939

PnL

-$22.04

Record

66%

98450-50905 (149355)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$159.87

Value

$189.2

PnL

+$29.33

Record

12%

17911-132734 (150645)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$141.39

Value

$244.46

PnL

+$103.07

Record

57%

11697-8698 (20395)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$183.17

Value

$181

PnL

-$2.17

Record

60%

11881-7798 (19679)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.56

Value

$98.95

PnL

-$9.6

Record

49%

4915-5086 (10001)

Both legs:

Down$54.3354.9¢+$44.62

Up$54.2229.6¢-$54.22

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.03

Value

$87.91

PnL

-$14.12

Record

57%

7485-5749 (13234)

Both legs:

Down$58.4966.5¢+$29.42

Up$43.5429.2¢-$43.54

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.33

Value

$93.91

PnL

-$8.41

Record

56%

13426-10728 (24154)

Both legs:

Down$52.7656.2¢+$41.15

Up$49.5739.4¢-$49.57

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$86.57

Value

—

PnL

-$61.57

Record

48%

22997-25056 (48053)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$119.53

Value

$91.92

PnL

-$27.61

Record

55%

7092-5806 (12898)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$110.43

Value

$105.94

PnL

-$4.49

Record

66%

124265-63963 (188228)

13897651

Down

Invested

$112.37

Value

$165.65

PnL

+$53.28

Record

—

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$59.78

Value

$92.08

PnL

+$32.3

Record

56%

12161-9384 (21545)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$67.34

Value

$35.83

PnL

-$31.51

Record

66%

111403-57662 (169065)

Both legs:

Up$42.6954.7¢-$42.69

Down$24.6568.8¢+$11.18

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$51.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$1.5

Record

55%

23571-19073 (42644)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$47.8

Value

$48.43

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

77370-80568 (157938)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$29.02

Value

—

PnL

-$29.02

Record

58%

60038-43826 (103864)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$38.71

Value

—

PnL

-$38.71

Record

52%

89153-83609 (172762)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$98.35

Value

—

PnL

-$98.35

Record

55%

8329-6768 (15097)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$47.79

Value

—

PnL

-$26.51

Record

61%

93655-58890 (152545)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR<$100

Invested

$25

Value

—

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

158-139 (297)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.79

Value

—

PnL

-$2.79

Record

46%

37796-44311 (82107)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$12.51

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$12.51

Record

58%

50724-36860 (87584)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.11

Record

93%

22430-1725 (24155)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2f961ae6...c6282f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793162400

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.9K

+$28.75

BoneOhio

Down — $2.2K

+$22.37

Bonereaper

Down — $939

-$22.04

Hsilverbasher

Down — $189.2

+$29.33

EZTRADENL2

Down — $244.46

+$103.07

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $181

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

-$61.57

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