Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 47%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$492.01

Smart Money Signal

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,276

Combined PnL+$801.47

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,064

Combined PnL-$309.46

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TE Telawin	Upavg 58.9¢	$1.0K	$1.7K	+$698.28	51% 336-326 (662)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$318.71	$335.48	+$16.77	49% 4915-5086 (10001)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.9¢	$121.87	—	-$121.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.7¢	$196.84	$335.48	+$138.65
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$459.74	$421.69	-$38.04	56% 13426-10728 (24154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$210.92	—	-$210.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$248.82	$421.69	+$172.87
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$482.91	$320.03	-$162.88	57% 11697-8698 (20395)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$279.83	—	-$279.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$203.09	$320.03	+$116.95
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$445.69	$543	+$97.31	66% 98450-50905 (149355)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.7¢	$340.39	$543	+$202.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$105.3	—	-$105.3
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 58¢	$272.09	$248.94	-$23.16	55% 8329-6768 (15097)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$127.62	—	-$127.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$144.47	$248.94	+$104.46
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 37¢	$164.93	$148.68	-$16.26	56% 12161-9384 (21545)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$86.51	—	-$86.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$78.42	$148.68	+$70.25
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 6.1¢	$16.99	—	-$16.99	59% 61913-42908 (104821)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$66.63	$55.83	-$10.8	49% 77370-80568 (157938)
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.6¢	$21.51	—	-$21.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.8¢	$45.12	$55.83	+$10.71
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 23.6¢	$47.03	—	-$47.03	46% 37796-44311 (82107)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$189.62	$191.54	+$1.92	74% 102066-36293 (138359)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$79.2	—	-$79.2	—
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 74.5¢	$121.28	$145.89	+$24.62	55% 7092-5806 (12898)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 93.8¢	$144.42	$118.2	-$26.22	66% 124265-63963 (188228)
└ Up leg	Upavg 93.8¢	$110.88	$118.2	+$7.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.2¢	$33.54	—	-$33.54
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 19.9¢	$36.11	—	-$35.91	60% 11881-7798 (19679)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$68.59	$72.05	+$3.46	55% 23571-19073 (42644)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.7¢	$51.64	$72.05	+$20.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.5¢	$16.95	—	-$16.95
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$49.6	—	-$49.6	57% 69319-52768 (122087)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 92.2¢	$62.31	$67.61	+$5.3	61% 93655-58890 (152545)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 44¢	$29.33	$66.66	+$37.33	66% 111403-57662 (169065)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$38.8	$64.35	+$25.55	64% 39652-22624 (62276)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 41.1¢	$26.13	—	-$26.13	55% 43897-36336 (80233)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 41.4¢	$20.78	—	-$20.78	58% 50724-36860 (87584)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$22.56	—	-$22.56	12% 17911-132734 (150645)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 47.4¢	$22.45	$24.73	+$2.28	57% 7485-5749 (13234)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 64¢	$11	$17.19	+$6.19	65% 21160-11608 (32768)

Telawin

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$698.28

Record

51%

336-326 (662)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$318.71

Value

$335.48

PnL

+$16.77

Record

49%

4915-5086 (10001)

Both legs:

Down$121.8720.9¢-$121.87

Up$196.8458.7¢+$138.65

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$459.74

Value

$421.69

PnL

-$38.04

Record

56%

13426-10728 (24154)

Both legs:

Down$210.9244.8¢-$210.92

Up$248.8259¢+$172.87

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$482.91

Value

$320.03

PnL

-$162.88

Record

57%

11697-8698 (20395)

Both legs:

Down$279.8351.3¢-$279.83

Up$203.0963.5¢+$116.95

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$445.69

Value

$543

PnL

+$97.31

Record

66%

98450-50905 (149355)

Both legs:

Up$340.3962.7¢+$202.61

Down$105.340.7¢-$105.3

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$272.09

Value

$248.94

PnL

-$23.16

Record

55%

8329-6768 (15097)

Both legs:

Down$127.6240.4¢-$127.62

Up$144.4758¢+$104.46

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$164.93

Value

$148.68

PnL

-$16.26

Record

56%

12161-9384 (21545)

Both legs:

Invested

$16.99

Value

—

PnL

-$16.99

Record

59%

61913-42908 (104821)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$66.63

Value

$55.83

PnL

-$10.8

Record

49%

77370-80568 (157938)

Both legs:

Down$21.5110.6¢-$21.51

Up$45.1280.8¢+$10.71

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.03

Value

—

PnL

-$47.03

Record

46%

37796-44311 (82107)

BoneOhio

Invested

$189.62

Value

$191.54

PnL

+$1.92

Record

74%

102066-36293 (138359)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.2

Value

—

PnL

-$79.2

Record

—

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$121.28

Value

$145.89

PnL

+$24.62

Record

55%

7092-5806 (12898)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$144.42

Value

$118.2

PnL

-$26.22

Record

66%

124265-63963 (188228)

Both legs:

Up$110.8893.8¢+$7.32

Down$33.5474.2¢-$33.54

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.11

Value

—

PnL

-$35.91

Record

60%

11881-7798 (19679)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$68.59

Value

$72.05

PnL

+$3.46

Record

55%

23571-19073 (42644)

Both legs:

Up$51.6471.7¢+$20.41

Down$16.9537.5¢-$16.95

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.6

Value

—

PnL

-$49.6

Record

57%

69319-52768 (122087)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$62.31

Value

$67.61

PnL

+$5.3

Record

61%

93655-58890 (152545)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$29.33

Value

$66.66

PnL

+$37.33

Record

66%

111403-57662 (169065)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$38.8

Value

$64.35

PnL

+$25.55

Record

64%

39652-22624 (62276)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.13

Value

—

PnL

-$26.13

Record

55%

43897-36336 (80233)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.78

Value

—

PnL

-$20.78

Record

58%

50724-36860 (87584)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.56

Value

—

PnL

-$22.56

Record

12%

17911-132734 (150645)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$22.45

Value

$24.73

PnL

+$2.28

Record

57%

7485-5749 (13234)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$17.19

PnL

+$6.19

Record

65%

21160-11608 (32768)

Smart Money Signal

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0f688aee...ae6261

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793161500

Traders in this Market

Telawin

Up — $1.7K

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Down — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Down — $0