Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 68%
1 arb excluded
$7.0K
$269.84
Smart Money Signal
18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$2.91 | 59% 61899-42898 (104797) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15.19 | 56% 29199-23025 (52224) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 87.5¢ | $742.29 | $734.9 | -$7.39 | 66% 98433-50894 (149327) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $371.14 | $365.56 | -$5.58 | 49% 4911-5073 (9984) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $178.6 | $264.6 | +$86.01 | 58% 60028-43822 (103850) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 55.9¢ | $193.32 | $248.86 | +$55.55 | 56% 13416-10721 (24137) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 63.1¢ | $131.91 | $205.34 | +$73.43 | 55% 8321-6761 (15082) |
 ohioism | Downavg 73.9¢ | $117.05 | $158.32 | +$41.27 | 64% 39642-22617 (62259) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 81.9¢ | $132.21 | $100.49 | -$31.72 | 60% 11871-7789 (19660) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $108.83 | $212.25 | +$103.42 | 57% 11689-8690 (20379) |
30 0x3089...35e4CTR<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $57.3 | — | -$57.3 | — |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 45.6¢ | $43.38 | $58.46 | +$15.08 | 56% 12150-9378 (21528) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.5¢ | $16.7 | — | -$16.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.6¢ | $26.68 | $58.46 | +$31.78 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $39.96 | $45 | +$5.04 | 52% 89117-83588 (172705) |
VE Vega7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.8¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 74% 2940-1025 (3965) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.8¢ | $10.73 | — | -$10.73 | 46% 37786-44290 (82076) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $31.57 | $32.89 | +$1.32 | 57% 69318-52757 (122075) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $36.45 | $53.3 | +$16.85 | 66% 124228-63947 (188175) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $25.2 | $49.43 | +$24.23 | 55% 43879-36307 (80186) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.9¢ | $12.51 | — | -$12.51 | 49% 77370-80568 (157938) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $21.6 | $36 | +$14.4 | 61% 93625-58870 (152495) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 12% 17904-132728 (150632) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $14.13 | $27.71 | +$13.58 | 55% 7079-5800 (12879) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $21.11 | — | -$21.11 | 57% 7475-5735 (13210) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $12.12 | — | -$12.12 | 48% 22992-25043 (48035) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $12.84 | $20.14 | +$7.3 | 66% 111385-57646 (169031) |
Invested
$2,911.98
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$2.91
Record
59%
61899-42898 (104797)
Invested
$1,503.97
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.19
Record
56%
29199-23025 (52224)
Invested
$742.29
Value
$734.9
PnL
-$7.39
Record
66%
98433-50894 (149327)
Invested
$371.14
Value
$365.56
PnL
-$5.58
Record
49%
4911-5073 (9984)
Invested
$178.6
Value
$264.6
PnL
+$86.01
Record
58%
60028-43822 (103850)
Invested
$193.32
Value
$248.86
PnL
+$55.55
Record
56%
13416-10721 (24137)
machinelearnedInvested
$131.91
Value
$205.34
PnL
+$73.43
Record
55%
8321-6761 (15082)
ohioismInvested
$117.05
Value
$158.32
PnL
+$41.27
Record
64%
39642-22617 (62259)
Invested
$132.21
Value
$100.49
PnL
-$31.72
Record
60%
11871-7789 (19660)
Invested
$108.83
Value
$212.25
PnL
+$103.42
Record
57%
11689-8690 (20379)
Invested
$57.3
Value
—
PnL
-$57.3
Record
—
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$43.38
Value
$58.46
PnL
+$15.08
Record
56%
12150-9378 (21528)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.96
Value
$45
PnL
+$5.04
Record
52%
89117-83588 (172705)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
74%
2940-1025 (3965)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$10.73
Value
—
PnL
-$10.73
Record
46%
37786-44290 (82076)
Invested
$31.57
Value
$32.89
PnL
+$1.32
Record
57%
69318-52757 (122075)
Invested
$36.45
Value
$53.3
PnL
+$16.85
Record
66%
124228-63947 (188175)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$25.2
Value
$49.43
PnL
+$24.23
Record
55%
43879-36307 (80186)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$12.51
Value
—
PnL
-$12.51
Record
49%
77370-80568 (157938)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$36
PnL
+$14.4
Record
61%
93625-58870 (152495)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
12%
17904-132728 (150632)
Invested
$14.13
Value
$27.71
PnL
+$13.58
Record
55%
7079-5800 (12879)
Invested
$21.11
Value
—
PnL
-$21.11
Record
57%
7475-5735 (13210)
Invested
$12.12
Value
—
PnL
-$12.12
Record
48%
22992-25043 (48035)
Invested
$12.84
Value
$20.14
PnL
+$7.3
Record
66%
111385-57646 (169031)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $2.9K
THG.
Down — $1.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $734.9
ply-pm0
Down — $365.56
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $264.6
GoodFallen
Down — $248.86
machinelearned
Down — $205.34
ohioism
Down — $158.32
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $100.49
EZTRADENL2
Down — $212.25