Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 35 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares12,371

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,148

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 97.2¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$107	81% 162-38 (200)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 71.1¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$419.43	49% 4911-5073 (9984)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 58.2¢	$708.43	$1.2K	+$508.3	53% 315-279 (594)
Bossgirl	Downavg 78.5¢	$563.78	$717.81	+$154.03	54% 4591-3917 (8508)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 25.2¢	$592.96	—	-$592.96	55% 8321-6761 (15082)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 43.5¢	$291.45	—	-$189.8	48% 22992-25043 (48035)
TE TelawinCTR	Upavg 52.4¢	$500	—	-$500	51% 336-326 (662)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 47.8¢	$246.23	—	-$246.23	46% 37786-44290 (82076)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 76.2¢	$417.65	$445.55	+$27.9	55% 7079-5800 (12879)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 76.5¢	$482.76	$412.32	-$70.44	60% 11871-7789 (19660)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$1.2K	$290.99	-$911.51	66% 98433-50894 (149327)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$146.07	$290.99	+$144.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 42.5¢	$321.41	$399.53	+$78.12	56% 13416-10721 (24137)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 38.4¢	$174.42	$339.94	+$165.52	56% 12150-9378 (21528)
OhioRiskManagementCTR	Upavg 30.2¢	$115.84	—	-$115.84	49% 77370-80568 (157938)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 96¢	$259.2	$270	+$10.8	50% 634-639 (1273)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 99¢	$363.91	$253	-$110.91	57% 7475-5735 (13210)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 7.4¢	$65.43	—	-$65.43	59% 61899-42898 (104797)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Upavg 73.4¢	$171.83	—	-$171.83	12% 17904-132728 (150632)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 11.5¢	$172.33	$85.56	-$86.77	77% 9244-2700 (11944)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77¢	$65.88	$85.56	+$19.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.5¢	$106.45	—	-$106.45
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 63.9¢	$127.97	$123.78	-$4.19	55% 23564-19066 (42630)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e	Downavg 75.9¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$344.94	54% 1586-1367 (2953)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Downavg 77.2¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$325.71	57% 1303-965 (2268)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 18.4¢	$117.02	—	-$117.02	57% 69318-52757 (122075)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 97.6¢	$103.02	$103.2	+$0.18	63% 50900-30030 (80930)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 29.2¢	$67.08	—	-$67.08	66% 111385-57646 (169031)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$3,692.98

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$107

Record

81%

162-38 (200)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,572.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$419.43

Record

49%

4911-5073 (9984)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$708.43

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$508.3

Record

53%

315-279 (594)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$563.78

Value

$717.81

PnL

+$154.03

Record

54%

4591-3917 (8508)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$592.96

Value

—

PnL

-$592.96

Record

55%

8321-6761 (15082)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$291.45

Value

—

PnL

-$189.8

Record

48%

22992-25043 (48035)

TelawinCTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

51%

336-326 (662)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$246.23

Value

—

PnL

-$246.23

Record

46%

37786-44290 (82076)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$417.65

Value

$445.55

PnL

+$27.9

Record

55%

7079-5800 (12879)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$482.76

Value

$412.32

PnL

-$70.44

Record

60%

11871-7789 (19660)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$1,202.51

Value

$290.99

PnL

-$911.51

Record

66%

98433-50894 (149327)

Both legs:

Down$146.0750.2¢+$144.93

Up$1,056.4449¢$-1.1K

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$321.41

Value

$399.53

PnL

+$78.12

Record

56%

13416-10721 (24137)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$174.42

Value

$339.94

PnL

+$165.52

Record

56%

12150-9378 (21528)

OhioRiskManagementCTR

Invested

$115.84

Value

—

PnL

-$115.84

Record

49%

77370-80568 (157938)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$259.2

Value

$270

PnL

+$10.8

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$363.91

Value

$253

PnL

-$110.91

Record

57%

7475-5735 (13210)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$65.43

Value

—

PnL

-$65.43

Record

59%

61899-42898 (104797)

HsilverbasherCTR

Invested

$171.83

Value

—

PnL

-$171.83

Record

12%

17904-132728 (150632)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$172.33

Value

$85.56

PnL

-$86.77

Record

77%

9244-2700 (11944)

Both legs:

Down$65.8877¢+$19.68

Up$106.4511.5¢-$106.45

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$127.97

Value

$123.78

PnL

-$4.19

Record

55%

23564-19066 (42630)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Down

Invested

$1,086.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$344.94

Record

54%

1586-1367 (2953)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down

Invested

$1,104.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$325.71

Record

57%

1303-965 (2268)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$117.02

Value

—

PnL

-$117.02

Record

57%

69318-52757 (122075)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$103.02

Value

$103.2

PnL

+$0.18

Record

63%

50900-30030 (80930)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$67.08

Value

—

PnL

-$67.08

Record

66%

111385-57646 (169031)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 35 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa040fc6b...21ae82

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793160900

Traders in this Market

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $3.8K

+$107

ply-pm0

Down — $1.2K

-$419.43

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $1.2K

+$508.3

Bossgirl

Down — $717.81

+$154.03

machinelearned

CTR

Up — $0

-$592.96

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $0

Telawin

Up — $0

pspspsps5

Up — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $445.55

+$27.9

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $412.32

-$70.44

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