Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
27
Up 56%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$-4.6K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 27 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 73¢ | $2.6K | — | $-2.6K | 66% 98433-50894 (149327) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 76.8¢ | $413.29 | — | -$413.29 | 56% 13416-10721 (24137) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 79.9¢ | $581.73 | — | -$581.73 | 57% 69318-52757 (122075) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 94.5¢ | $666.94 | $383.96 | -$282.98 | 77% 9244-2700 (11944) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR | Upavg 73.4¢ | $386.97 | — | -$386.97 | 12% 17904-132728 (150632) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 35.4¢ | $229.79 | $435.95 | +$206.16 | 56% 12150-9378 (21528) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 14.4¢ | $58.53 | $338.86 | +$280.33 | 55% 8321-6761 (15082) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 60.3¢ | $293.21 | — | -$293.21 | 49% 4911-5073 (9984) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 77.7¢ | $200.39 | — | -$200.39 | 57% 11689-8690 (20379) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Upavg 92.6¢ | $143.42 | — | -$143.42 | 60% 11871-7789 (19660) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 81.8¢ | $295.06 | $122 | -$173.06 | 57% 7475-5735 (13210) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 9¢ | $10.98 | $122 | +$111.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.8¢ | $284.08 | — | -$284.08 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $211.27 | $119.36 | -$91.91 | 55% 7079-5800 (12879) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.9¢ | $23.77 | $119.36 | +$95.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.8¢ | $187.5 | — | -$187.5 | |
30 0x3089...35e4CTR | Upavg 84.2¢ | $220.23 | — | -$220.23 | — |
SI sir-upalotCTR | Upavg 79.7¢ | $227.88 | — | -$227.88 | 55% 23564-19066 (42630) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $66.4 | — | -$66.4 | 57% 10065-7554 (17619) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 54.1¢ | $55.81 | $68 | +$12.19 | 55% 43879-36307 (80186) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 8.6¢ | $16.03 | $185.99 | +$169.96 | 46% 37786-44290 (82076) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $22.35 | $28.41 | +$6.06 | 63% 50900-30030 (80930) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $27.27 | — | -$23.2 | 61% 93625-58870 (152495) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $30.24 | — | -$30.24 | 66% 124228-63947 (188175) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $12.8 | — | -$12.8 | 65% 21119-11585 (32704) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 14.3¢ | $10.45 | $73 | +$62.55 | 49% 77370-80568 (157938) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $15 | $45.45 | +$30.45 | 66% 111385-57646 (169031) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 16.6¢ | $6.81 | $41.04 | +$34.23 | 52% 89117-83588 (172705) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $1.08 | $2.3 | +$1.22 | 58% 50720-36853 (87573) |
Invested
$2,572.2
Value
—
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
66%
98433-50894 (149327)
Invested
$413.29
Value
—
PnL
-$413.29
Record
56%
13416-10721 (24137)
Invested
$581.73
Value
—
PnL
-$581.73
Record
57%
69318-52757 (122075)
NIULAI4Invested
$666.94
Value
$383.96
PnL
-$282.98
Record
77%
9244-2700 (11944)
Invested
$386.97
Value
—
PnL
-$386.97
Record
12%
17904-132728 (150632)
FairValueMachineInvested
$229.79
Value
$435.95
PnL
+$206.16
Record
56%
12150-9378 (21528)
machinelearnedInvested
$58.53
Value
$338.86
PnL
+$280.33
Record
55%
8321-6761 (15082)
Invested
$293.21
Value
—
PnL
-$293.21
Record
49%
4911-5073 (9984)
Invested
$200.39
Value
—
PnL
-$200.39
Record
57%
11689-8690 (20379)
Invested
$143.42
Value
—
PnL
-$143.42
Record
60%
11871-7789 (19660)
Invested
$295.06
Value
$122
PnL
-$173.06
Record
57%
7475-5735 (13210)
Both legs:
Invested
$211.27
Value
$119.36
PnL
-$91.91
Record
55%
7079-5800 (12879)
Both legs:
Invested
$220.23
Value
—
PnL
-$220.23
Record
—
Invested
$227.88
Value
—
PnL
-$227.88
Record
55%
23564-19066 (42630)
Invested
$66.4
Value
—
PnL
-$66.4
Record
57%
10065-7554 (17619)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$55.81
Value
$68
PnL
+$12.19
Record
55%
43879-36307 (80186)
pspspsps5Invested
$16.03
Value
$185.99
PnL
+$169.96
Record
46%
37786-44290 (82076)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$22.35
Value
$28.41
PnL
+$6.06
Record
63%
50900-30030 (80930)
Invested
$27.27
Value
—
PnL
-$23.2
Record
61%
93625-58870 (152495)
Invested
$30.24
Value
—
PnL
-$30.24
Record
66%
124228-63947 (188175)
Invested
$12.8
Value
—
PnL
-$12.8
Record
65%
21119-11585 (32704)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$10.45
Value
$73
PnL
+$62.55
Record
49%
77370-80568 (157938)
Invested
$15
Value
$45.45
PnL
+$30.45
Record
66%
111385-57646 (169031)
Invested
$6.81
Value
$41.04
PnL
+$34.23
Record
52%
89117-83588 (172705)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$1.22
Record
58%
50720-36853 (87573)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
NIULAI4
Down — $383.96
Hsilverbasher
CTRUp — $0
FairValueMachine
Down — $435.95
machinelearned
Down — $338.86
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
EZTRADENL2
CTRUp — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRUp — $0