Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,469

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Down11 traders

Total Value$831.03

Total Shares831

Combined PnL+$194.37

Up — 42%Down — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	$-3.6K	56% 3621-2807 (6428)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$159.39	66% 98433-50894 (149327)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.5¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$367.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.7¢	$207.83	—	-$207.83
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4.7¢	$82.49	—	-$82.49	59% 61899-42898 (104797)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 91¢	$405.93	$352	-$53.93	55% 8321-6761 (15082)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91¢	$320.3	$352	+$31.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.3¢	$85.63	—	-$85.63
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 78¢	$220.06	$240	+$19.94	49% 4911-5073 (9984)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78¢	$187.2	$240	+$52.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.4¢	$32.86	—	-$32.86
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 69.8¢	$121.62	$159.99	+$38.37	56% 13416-10721 (24137)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 28.9¢	$99.15	$35.65	-$63.5	57% 11689-8690 (20379)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.9¢	$74.26	—	-$74.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$24.89	$35.65	+$10.77
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$15	—	-$15	48% 22992-25043 (48035)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 95¢	$91.52	$88	-$3.52	60% 11871-7789 (19660)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95¢	$83.6	$88	+$4.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 9¢	$7.92	—	-$7.92
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 83¢	$103.7	$125	+$21.3	57% 7475-5735 (13210)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 78¢	$93.95	$101.88	+$7.92	55% 7079-5800 (12879)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 62.9¢	$63.09	$100.3	+$37.21	58% 60028-43822 (103850)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 7.6¢	$17.9	—	-$17.9	46% 37786-44290 (82076)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$73.23	$89.98	+$16.75	57% 69318-52757 (122075)
30 0x3089...35e4	Downavg 65.3¢	$77.01	$117.99	+$40.98	—
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$46.69	$67.01	+$20.32	55% 49133-39395 (88528)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 24¢	$43.5	$31.55	-$11.95	56% 12150-9378 (21528)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24¢	$24	—	-$24
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$19.5	$31.55	+$12.05
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 10.8¢	$16.78	—	-$16.78	49% 77370-80568 (157938)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 12.8¢	$11.4	—	-$11.4	55% 43879-36307 (80186)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 23.9¢	$12.18	—	-$12.18	12% 17904-132728 (150632)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87¢	$32.76	$37.66	+$4.9	66% 124228-63947 (188175)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 91¢	$16.76	$18.42	+$1.66	65% 21119-11585 (32704)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 25.3¢	$5.58	—	-$5.58	52% 89117-83588 (172705)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 62¢	$4.84	$7.81	+$2.97	66% 111385-57646 (169031)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 60¢	$3	$5	+$2	64% 39642-22617 (62259)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

56%

3621-2807 (6428)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,071.58

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$159.39

Record

66%

98433-50894 (149327)

Both legs:

Down$1,863.7583.5¢+$367.22

Up$207.8315.7¢-$207.83

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$82.49

Value

—

PnL

-$82.49

Record

59%

61899-42898 (104797)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$405.93

Value

$352

PnL

-$53.93

Record

55%

8321-6761 (15082)

Both legs:

Invested

$220.06

Value

$240

PnL

+$19.94

Record

49%

4911-5073 (9984)

Both legs:

Invested

$121.62

Value

$159.99

PnL

+$38.37

Record

56%

13416-10721 (24137)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$99.15

Value

$35.65

PnL

-$63.5

Record

57%

11689-8690 (20379)

Both legs:

Up$74.2628.9¢-$74.26

Down$24.8969.8¢+$10.77

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

48%

22992-25043 (48035)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91.52

Value

$88

PnL

-$3.52

Record

60%

11871-7789 (19660)

Both legs:

Invested

$103.7

Value

$125

PnL

+$21.3

Record

57%

7475-5735 (13210)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$93.95

Value

$101.88

PnL

+$7.92

Record

55%

7079-5800 (12879)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$63.09

Value

$100.3

PnL

+$37.21

Record

58%

60028-43822 (103850)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$17.9

Value

—

PnL

-$17.9

Record

46%

37786-44290 (82076)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$73.23

Value

$89.98

PnL

+$16.75

Record

57%

69318-52757 (122075)

0x3089...35e4

Down

Invested

$77.01

Value

$117.99

PnL

+$40.98

Record

—

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$46.69

Value

$67.01

PnL

+$20.32

Record

55%

49133-39395 (88528)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$43.5

Value

$31.55

PnL

-$11.95

Record

56%

12150-9378 (21528)

Both legs:

Up$2424¢-$24

Down$19.561.8¢+$12.05

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$16.78

Value

—

PnL

-$16.78

Record

49%

77370-80568 (157938)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

—

PnL

-$11.4

Record

55%

43879-36307 (80186)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

—

PnL

-$12.18

Record

12%

17904-132728 (150632)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$32.76

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$4.9

Record

66%

124228-63947 (188175)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$16.76

Value

$18.42

PnL

+$1.66

Record

65%

21119-11585 (32704)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

—

PnL

-$5.58

Record

52%

89117-83588 (172705)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.84

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$2.97

Record

66%

111385-57646 (169031)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

Value

PnL

+$2

Record

64%

39642-22617 (62259)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xad77aa0a...0d451f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793159700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Up — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Down — $159.99

+$38.37

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$63.5

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

-$15

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$3.52

wzbbb

Down — $125

+$21.3

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