Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$70.92

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 25 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,106

Combined PnL+$268.2

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$197.28

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 52.1¢	$647.18	$745.14	+$97.97	56% 13408-10714 (24122)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 57.4¢	$423.36	$488.97	+$65.61	57% 7465-5727 (13192)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 81.1¢	$463.94	$337.82	-$126.12	60% 11862-7780 (19642)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 55.2¢	$301.25	$314.41	+$13.15	49% 4903-5064 (9967)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 47.6¢	$259.79	$160	-$99.8	56% 12142-9373 (21515)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$99.5	$160	+$60.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.6¢	$160.3	—	-$160.3
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 62.8¢	$150.21	$195.87	+$48.15	55% 7072-5790 (12862)
NIULAI4	Downavg 91¢	$182.4	$175	-$7.4	77% 9240-2696 (11936)
MO mo-money	Downavg 69.3¢	$159.97	$176.19	+$16.22	55% 49928-40557 (90485)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$115.32	$124	+$8.68	55% 47865-39475 (87340)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$77.5	$124	+$46.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$37.82	—	-$37.82
BO bosona	Downavg 62.5¢	$106.82	$124	+$17.18	56% 49132-39393 (88525)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$152.44	$100	-$52.44	55% 23513-19032 (42545)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$62.5	$100	+$37.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.3¢	$89.94	—	-$89.94
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 34¢	$28.9	$85	+$56.1	56% 57463-44387 (101850)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$64.09	$63.71	-$0.38	55% 8312-6754 (15066)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$48	$60.13	+$12.13	65% 123904-66250 (190154)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 63¢	$63.03	$100.05	+$37.02	58% 60017-43815 (103832)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 94¢	$70.4	$60	-$10.4	57% 10059-7541 (17600)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 43.2¢	$117.38	—	-$117.38	57% 11675-8685 (20360)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 39.9¢	$43.93	$72.95	+$29.02	66% 111247-57501 (168748)
SP spartacrayCTR<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$37.2	—	-$37.2	53% 26809-23884 (50693)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 77¢	$24.03	$24	-$0.03	52% 89083-83565 (172648)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.9¢	$24.72	$30.57	+$5.85	66% 124187-63928 (188115)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$18.6	—	-$18.6	51% 16910-16497 (33407)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$21.4	—	-$21.4	55% 43850-36279 (80129)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$16.45	$32.82	+$16.37	66% 98425-50873 (149298)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$2.71	—	-$2.71	46% 37781-44261 (82042)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$647.18

Value

$745.14

PnL

+$97.97

Record

56%

13408-10714 (24122)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$423.36

Value

$488.97

PnL

+$65.61

Record

57%

7465-5727 (13192)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$463.94

Value

$337.82

PnL

-$126.12

Record

60%

11862-7780 (19642)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$301.25

Value

$314.41

PnL

+$13.15

Record

49%

4903-5064 (9967)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$259.79

Value

$160

PnL

-$99.8

Record

56%

12142-9373 (21515)

Both legs:

Down$99.562.2¢+$60.5

Up$160.347.6¢-$160.3

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$150.21

Value

$195.87

PnL

+$48.15

Record

55%

7072-5790 (12862)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$182.4

Value

$175

PnL

-$7.4

Record

77%

9240-2696 (11936)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$159.97

Value

$176.19

PnL

+$16.22

Record

55%

49928-40557 (90485)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.32

Value

$124

PnL

+$8.68

Record

55%

47865-39475 (87340)

Both legs:

Invested

$106.82

Value

$124

PnL

+$17.18

Record

56%

49132-39393 (88525)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$152.44

Value

$100

PnL

-$52.44

Record

55%

23513-19032 (42545)

Both legs:

Down$62.562.5¢+$37.5

Up$89.9459.3¢-$89.94

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$28.9

Value

$85

PnL

+$56.1

Record

56%

57463-44387 (101850)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$64.09

Value

$63.71

PnL

-$0.38

Record

55%

8312-6754 (15066)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$48

Value

$60.13

PnL

+$12.13

Record

65%

123904-66250 (190154)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$63.03

Value

$100.05

PnL

+$37.02

Record

58%

60017-43815 (103832)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$70.4

Value

$60

PnL

-$10.4

Record

57%

10059-7541 (17600)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$117.38

Value

—

PnL

-$117.38

Record

57%

11675-8685 (20360)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$43.93

Value

$72.95

PnL

+$29.02

Record

66%

111247-57501 (168748)

spartacrayCTR<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

—

PnL

-$37.2

Record

53%

26809-23884 (50693)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$24.03

Value

$24

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

89083-83565 (172648)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$24.72

Value

$30.57

PnL

+$5.85

Record

66%

124187-63928 (188115)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

—

PnL

-$18.6

Record

51%

16910-16497 (33407)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$21.4

Value

—

PnL

-$21.4

Record

55%

43850-36279 (80129)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$16.45

Value

$32.82

PnL

+$16.37

Record

66%

98425-50873 (149298)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

—

PnL

-$2.71

Record

46%

37781-44261 (82042)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 25 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4e48bacf...403cb7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793152200

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Down — $745.14

+$97.97

wzbbb

Down — $488.97

+$65.61

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $337.82

-$126.12

ply-pm0

Down — $314.41

+$13.15

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$99.8

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $195.87

+$48.15

NIULAI4

Down — $175

-$7.4

mo-money

Down — $176.19

+$16.22

almach

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.68

bosona

Down — $124

+$17.18

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