Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$668.95

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 30 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,502

Combined PnL+$777.49

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,327

Combined PnL-$108.54

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 61.8¢	$435.88	$523.36	+$87.48	57% 7465-5727 (13192)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60.7¢	$395.39	$340.61	-$54.78	56% 13408-10714 (24122)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 35.7¢	$165.76	$464	+$298.24	66% 98425-50873 (149298)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 70¢	$194.61	$227.59	+$32.99	55% 7072-5790 (12862)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 58.4¢	$128.46	$185.01	+$56.55	56% 12142-9373 (21515)
ohioism	Downavg 60¢	$154.18	$257.03	+$102.85	64% 39631-22613 (62244)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 63.6¢	$166.85	$132.34	-$34.51	49% 4903-5064 (9967)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 72.2¢	$165.56	$119.64	-$41.98	60% 11862-7780 (19642)
SP spartacray	Downavg 71.8¢	$136.01	$123.94	-$12.07	53% 26809-23884 (50693)
Atomforge	Downavg 80.4¢	$103.05	$128.19	+$25.14	65% 3861-2079 (5940)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 32.2¢	$124.11	$86.31	-$37.8	57% 11675-8685 (20360)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.3¢	$50.35	$86.31	+$35.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$73.76	—	-$73.76
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.3¢	$28.68	—	-$28.68	59% 61890-42888 (104778)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 50¢	$76.59	$153.18	+$76.59	56% 57463-44387 (101850)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 56.1¢	$88.06	$121.24	+$33.18	66% 111247-57501 (168748)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 78.5¢	$100.01	$121.97	+$21.96	57% 10059-7541 (17600)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$63.52	$82.12	+$18.6	55% 8312-6754 (15066)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 48.4¢	$66.19	$136.8	+$70.61	58% 50713-36842 (87555)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 77.8¢	$82.02	$105.42	+$23.41	62% 43532-26459 (69991)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$47.71	$59.07	+$11.36	52% 89083-83565 (172648)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 48.3¢	$46.13	$58.69	+$12.56	66% 124187-63928 (188115)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$67.25	$60.1	-$3.15	65% 123904-66250 (190154)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50¢	$37.53	$75.06	+$37.53	58% 60017-43815 (103832)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$30.38	—	-$30.38	55% 47865-39475 (87340)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$28	—	-$28	55% 49928-40557 (90485)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 8.2¢	$18.13	—	-$18.13	46% 37781-44261 (82042)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$435.88

Value

$523.36

PnL

+$87.48

Record

57%

7465-5727 (13192)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$395.39

Value

$340.61

PnL

-$54.78

Record

56%

13408-10714 (24122)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$165.76

Value

$464

PnL

+$298.24

Record

66%

98425-50873 (149298)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$194.61

Value

$227.59

PnL

+$32.99

Record

55%

7072-5790 (12862)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$128.46

Value

$185.01

PnL

+$56.55

Record

56%

12142-9373 (21515)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$154.18

Value

$257.03

PnL

+$102.85

Record

64%

39631-22613 (62244)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$166.85

Value

$132.34

PnL

-$34.51

Record

49%

4903-5064 (9967)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$165.56

Value

$119.64

PnL

-$41.98

Record

60%

11862-7780 (19642)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$136.01

Value

$123.94

PnL

-$12.07

Record

53%

26809-23884 (50693)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$103.05

Value

$128.19

PnL

+$25.14

Record

65%

3861-2079 (5940)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$124.11

Value

$86.31

PnL

-$37.8

Record

57%

11675-8685 (20360)

Both legs:

Down$50.3558.3¢+$35.96

Up$73.7632.2¢-$73.76

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$28.68

Value

—

PnL

-$28.68

Record

59%

61890-42888 (104778)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$76.59

Value

$153.18

PnL

+$76.59

Record

56%

57463-44387 (101850)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$88.06

Value

$121.24

PnL

+$33.18

Record

66%

111247-57501 (168748)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$100.01

Value

$121.97

PnL

+$21.96

Record

57%

10059-7541 (17600)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$63.52

Value

$82.12

PnL

+$18.6

Record

55%

8312-6754 (15066)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$66.19

Value

$136.8

PnL

+$70.61

Record

58%

50713-36842 (87555)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$82.02

Value

$105.42

PnL

+$23.41

Record

62%

43532-26459 (69991)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$47.71

Value

$59.07

PnL

+$11.36

Record

52%

89083-83565 (172648)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$46.13

Value

$58.69

PnL

+$12.56

Record

66%

124187-63928 (188115)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$67.25

Value

$60.1

PnL

-$3.15

Record

65%

123904-66250 (190154)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$37.53

Value

$75.06

PnL

+$37.53

Record

58%

60017-43815 (103832)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$30.38

Value

—

PnL

-$30.38

Record

55%

47865-39475 (87340)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$28

Value

—

PnL

-$28

Record

55%

49928-40557 (90485)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$18.13

Value

—

PnL

-$18.13

Record

46%

37781-44261 (82042)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 30 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0dec1d0d...49aac9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793151900

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $523.36

+$87.48

GoodFallen

Down — $340.61

-$54.78

Bonereaper

Down — $464

+$298.24

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $227.59

+$32.99

FairValueMachine

Down — $185.01

+$56.55

ohioism

Down — $257.03

+$102.85

ply-pm0

Down — $132.34

-$34.51

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $119.64

-$41.98

spartacray

Down — $123.94

-$12.07

Atomforge

Down — $128.19

+$25.14

Trade on Polymarket