Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$203.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares6,562

Combined PnL+$222.61

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares393

Combined PnL-$18.93

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17.21	93% 22362-1721 (24083)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0.8	54% 15150-12689 (27839)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 63.2¢	$836.65	$895.32	+$58.67	57% 7452-5716 (13168)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 60.3¢	$639.79	$709.39	+$69.6	49% 4891-5058 (9949)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 78.7¢	$691.92	$681.87	-$10.05	55% 7064-5780 (12844)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 56.6¢	$496.07	$447.04	-$49.03	56% 13401-10703 (24104)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.6¢	$252.92	$447.04	+$194.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.5¢	$243.15	—	-$243.15
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 80.1¢	$517.91	$488.71	-$27.7	60% 11852-7772 (19624)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 35¢	$55.15	$100.39	+$45.24	62% 43530-26454 (69984)
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$20.01	—	-$20.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$35.14	$100.39	+$65.25
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$430.12	$357.15	-$72.97	77% 9234-2693 (11927)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$213.99	$357.15	+$143.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$216.13	—	-$216.13
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 63.3¢	$276.6	$285.75	+$9.15	57% 11665-8678 (20343)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 39.1¢	$183.99	$265.68	+$81.68	56% 12131-9366 (21497)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$244.92	$209.21	-$35.71	57% 10052-7532 (17584)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.5¢	$149.52	$209.21	+$59.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 21¢	$95.4	—	-$95.4
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 88.5¢	$225.21	$200	-$25.21	51% 16907-16495 (33402)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.5¢	$177	$200	+$23
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.9¢	$48.21	—	-$48.21
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 72¢	$234.54	$217.83	-$16.71	66% 124150-63912 (188062)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$156.74	$217.83	+$61.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.1¢	$77.8	—	-$77.8
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 77.7¢	$164.24	$150	-$14.24	55% 23513-19032 (42545)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 63¢	$67.98	$100.29	+$32.31	58% 60004-43803 (103807)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$63.18	$100.29	+$37.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 1.2¢	$4.8	—	-$4.8
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 19.4¢	$137.01	$75	-$62.02	55% 8301-6747 (15048)
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.4¢	$83.5	—	-$83.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.3¢	$53.51	$75	+$21.49
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 35.8¢	$117.92	$84.25	-$33.67	59% 22751-15967 (38718)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$34.26	$84.25	+$49.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.8¢	$83.66	—	-$83.66
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$77.2	$96.96	+$52.86	61% 93558-58834 (152392)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$54.56	$96.96	+$50.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 3.2¢	$6.65	—	+$2.32
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 76.1¢	$75.8	$86.44	+$10.64	52% 89056-83535 (172591)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.1¢	$65.76	$86.44	+$20.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 4.9¢	$10.04	—	-$10.04
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 83.8¢	$89.89	$107.33	+$17.44	66% 111247-57501 (168748)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$86.6	$131	+$44.4	66% 98415-50861 (149276)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$64.1	$131	+$66.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$22.5	—	-$22.5
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 9.6¢	$25.37	—	-$25.37	46% 37771-44231 (82002)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$45.01	$50.01	+$11.8	65% 21027-11533 (32560)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Upavg 33.7¢	$194.48	—	+$15.8	65% 123874-66232 (190106)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,704.21

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17.21

Record

93%

22362-1721 (24083)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,163.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0.8

Record

54%

15150-12689 (27839)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$836.65

Value

$895.32

PnL

+$58.67

Record

57%

7452-5716 (13168)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$639.79

Value

$709.39

PnL

+$69.6

Record

49%

4891-5058 (9949)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$691.92

Value

$681.87

PnL

-$10.05

Record

55%

7064-5780 (12844)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$496.07

Value

$447.04

PnL

-$49.03

Record

56%

13401-10703 (24104)

Both legs:

Down$252.9256.6¢+$194.12

Up$243.1534.5¢-$243.15

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$517.91

Value

$488.71

PnL

-$27.7

Record

60%

11852-7772 (19624)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$55.15

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$45.24

Record

62%

43530-26454 (69984)

Both legs:

Up$20.011¢-$20.01

Down$35.1435¢+$65.25

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$430.12

Value

$357.15

PnL

-$72.97

Record

77%

9234-2693 (11927)

Both legs:

Down$213.9959.9¢+$143.16

Up$216.1337.3¢-$216.13

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$276.6

Value

$285.75

PnL

+$9.15

Record

57%

11665-8678 (20343)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$183.99

Value

$265.68

PnL

+$81.68

Record

56%

12131-9366 (21497)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$244.92

Value

$209.21

PnL

-$35.71

Record

57%

10052-7532 (17584)

Both legs:

Down$149.5271.5¢+$59.69

Up$95.421¢-$95.4

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$225.21

Value

$200

PnL

-$25.21

Record

51%

16907-16495 (33402)

Both legs:

Invested

$234.54

Value

$217.83

PnL

-$16.71

Record

66%

124150-63912 (188062)

Both legs:

Down$156.7472¢+$61.09

Up$77.825.1¢-$77.8

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$164.24

Value

$150

PnL

-$14.24

Record

55%

23513-19032 (42545)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$67.98

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$32.31

Record

58%

60004-43803 (103807)

Both legs:

Down$63.1863¢+$37.11

Up$4.81.2¢-$4.8

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$137.01

Value

$75

PnL

-$62.02

Record

55%

8301-6747 (15048)

Both legs:

Up$83.519.4¢-$83.5

Down$53.5171.3¢+$21.49

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$117.92

Value

$84.25

PnL

-$33.67

Record

59%

22751-15967 (38718)

Both legs:

Down$34.2640.7¢+$49.99

Up$83.6635.8¢-$83.66

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$77.2

Value

$96.96

PnL

+$52.86

Record

61%

93558-58834 (152392)

Both legs:

Down$54.5656.3¢+$50.55

Up$6.653.2¢+$2.32

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$75.8

Value

$86.44

PnL

+$10.64

Record

52%

89056-83535 (172591)

Both legs:

Down$65.7676.1¢+$20.68

Up$10.044.9¢-$10.04

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$89.89

Value

$107.33

PnL

+$17.44

Record

66%

111247-57501 (168748)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.6

Value

$131

PnL

+$44.4

Record

66%

98415-50861 (149276)

Both legs:

Down$64.148.9¢+$66.9

Up$22.550¢-$22.5

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$25.37

Value

—

PnL

-$25.37

Record

46%

37771-44231 (82002)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$45.01

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$11.8

Record

65%

21027-11533 (32560)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR

Invested

$194.48

Value

—

PnL

+$15.8

Record

65%

123874-66232 (190106)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x664e02ae...f98eb7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793147100

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.7K

+$17.21

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.2K

-$0.8

wzbbb

Down — $895.32

+$58.67

ply-pm0

Down — $709.39

+$69.6

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $681.87

-$10.05

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$49.03

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $488.71

G-Penis-Monster

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Down — $285.75

+$9.15

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