Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$233.96

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 22 top traders (55%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,260

Combined PnL+$78.35

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares872

Combined PnL-$312.31

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 34.7¢	$527.59	$504.08	-$23.51	57% 7452-5716 (13168)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$243.5	$504.08	+$260.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$284.1	—	-$284.1
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$399.07	$350.88	-$48.19	54% 15150-12689 (27839)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$256.46	$350.88	+$94.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.5¢	$142.6	—	-$142.6
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 53.4¢	$275.29	$269.44	-$5.85	49% 4891-5058 (9949)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 73.7¢	$262.78	$230.39	-$31.75	60% 11852-7772 (19624)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 61.1¢	$160.47	$222.93	+$62.46	57% 11665-8678 (20343)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 75.6¢	$208.88	$203	-$5.88	55% 7064-5780 (12844)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$153.99	$178.68	+$24.7	55% 8301-6747 (15048)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$77.64	$178.68	+$101.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$76.35	—	-$76.35
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$200.6	$167.99	-$32.61	56% 13401-10703 (24104)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.8¢	$125.62	$167.99	+$42.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.8¢	$74.98	—	-$74.98
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 59¢	$65.49	$63.05	-$2.44	65% 123874-66232 (190106)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$177.56	$55.71	-$121.85	57% 10052-7532 (17584)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88¢	$49.02	$55.71	+$6.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.9¢	$128.53	—	-$128.53
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$71.35	$80.56	+$9.21	66% 124150-63912 (188062)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 19.3¢	$55.66	—	-$55.66	46% 37771-44231 (82002)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$72.82	$31	-$41.83	55% 43829-36245 (80074)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$57.94	—	-$57.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$14.88	$31	+$16.12
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$54.67	$45.15	-$9.52	56% 12131-9366 (21497)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 79¢	$78.99	—	-$78.99	58% 60004-43803 (103807)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 71¢	$55.04	—	-$55.04	48% 22979-25022 (48001)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$31.34	$34.19	+$2.85	61% 93558-58834 (152392)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 40.4¢	$26.27	$33.94	+$7.67	52% 89056-83535 (172591)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 19¢	$9.51	$50.05	+$40.54	64% 39626-22607 (62233)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$44.17	—	-$44.17	55% 23513-19032 (42545)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$41.22	—	-$41.22	56% 57449-44380 (101829)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 60¢	$16.58	$27.63	+$11.05	74% 102021-36286 (138307)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 16.7¢	$20.97	—	-$20.97	51% 16907-16495 (33402)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$4.32	—	-$4.32	77% 9234-2693 (11927)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$5.4	—	-$5.4	65% 21027-11533 (32560)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$527.59

Value

$504.08

PnL

-$23.51

Record

57%

7452-5716 (13168)

Both legs:

Down$243.548.3¢+$260.58

Up$284.134.7¢-$284.1

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$399.07

Value

$350.88

PnL

-$48.19

Record

54%

15150-12689 (27839)

Both legs:

Down$256.4673.1¢+$94.42

Up$142.627.5¢-$142.6

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$275.29

Value

$269.44

PnL

-$5.85

Record

49%

4891-5058 (9949)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$262.78

Value

$230.39

PnL

-$31.75

Record

60%

11852-7772 (19624)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$160.47

Value

$222.93

PnL

+$62.46

Record

57%

11665-8678 (20343)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$208.88

Value

$203

PnL

-$5.88

Record

55%

7064-5780 (12844)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.99

Value

$178.68

PnL

+$24.7

Record

55%

8301-6747 (15048)

Both legs:

Down$77.6443.5¢+$101.04

Up$76.3524.2¢-$76.35

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$200.6

Value

$167.99

PnL

-$32.61

Record

56%

13401-10703 (24104)

Both legs:

Down$125.6274.8¢+$42.38

Up$74.9826.8¢-$74.98

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$65.49

Value

$63.05

PnL

-$2.44

Record

65%

123874-66232 (190106)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$177.56

Value

$55.71

PnL

-$121.85

Record

57%

10052-7532 (17584)

Both legs:

Down$49.0288¢+$6.69

Up$128.5374.9¢-$128.53

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$71.35

Value

$80.56

PnL

+$9.21

Record

66%

124150-63912 (188062)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$55.66

Value

—

PnL

-$55.66

Record

46%

37771-44231 (82002)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$72.82

Value

$31

PnL

-$41.83

Record

55%

43829-36245 (80074)

Both legs:

Up$57.9455.4¢-$57.94

Down$14.8848¢+$16.12

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$54.67

Value

$45.15

PnL

-$9.52

Record

56%

12131-9366 (21497)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$78.99

Value

—

PnL

-$78.99

Record

58%

60004-43803 (103807)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$55.04

Value

—

PnL

-$55.04

Record

48%

22979-25022 (48001)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$31.34

Value

$34.19

PnL

+$2.85

Record

61%

93558-58834 (152392)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$26.27

Value

$33.94

PnL

+$7.67

Record

52%

89056-83535 (172591)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$9.51

Value

$50.05

PnL

+$40.54

Record

64%

39626-22607 (62233)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$44.17

Value

—

PnL

-$44.17

Record

55%

23513-19032 (42545)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$41.22

Value

—

PnL

-$41.22

Record

56%

57449-44380 (101829)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$16.58

Value

$27.63

PnL

+$11.05

Record

74%

102021-36286 (138307)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$20.97

Value

—

PnL

-$20.97

Record

51%

16907-16495 (33402)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$4.32

Value

—

PnL

-$4.32

Record

77%

9234-2693 (11927)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

—

PnL

-$5.4

Record

65%

21027-11533 (32560)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 22 top traders (55%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4c347835...42e520

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793146500

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.51

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$48.19

ply-pm0

Down — $269.44

-$5.85

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $230.39

-$31.75

EZTRADENL2

Down — $222.93

+$62.46

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $203

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $63.05

trdyugiolkw

Arbitrage — excluded