Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,173

Combined PnL+$19.52

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,864

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 53.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.71	54% 15150-12689 (27839)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$865.37	$874.11	+$8.74	74% 102021-36286 (138307)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60.1¢	$791.89	$773.53	-$18.36	56% 13401-10703 (24104)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 50.7¢	$699.91	—	-$699.91	57% 7452-5716 (13168)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.2¢	$546.69	$531.56	-$15.12	49% 4891-5058 (9949)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$454.47	$603.93	+$149.46	56% 12131-9366 (21497)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.7¢	$372.55	$603.93	+$231.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.8¢	$81.92	—	-$81.92
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 51.7¢	$281.19	—	-$281.19	55% 7064-5780 (12844)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 85.7¢	$402.06	$432.7	+$30.64	77% 9234-2693 (11927)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.7¢	$370.67	$432.7	+$62.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$31.39	—	-$31.39
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$243.77	$236.59	-$5.42	60% 11852-7772 (19624)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$104.37	—	-$105.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$136.52	$236.59	+$100.08
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 63¢	$263.88	$325.58	+$61.7	57% 11665-8678 (20343)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$205.13	$325.58	+$120.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.5¢	$58.75	—	-$58.75
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 56.1¢	$147.29	$168.95	+$21.66	55% 23513-19032 (42545)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 83.9¢	$132.38	$157.85	+$25.46	55% 43829-36245 (80074)
GA gansinimenCTR	Downavg 24¢	$135.37	—	-$135.37	51% 16907-16495 (33402)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$71.81	—	-$71.81	48% 22979-25022 (48001)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 73.2¢	$101.08	$81.51	-$19.57	57% 10052-7532 (17584)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98¢	$73.11	$62.35	-$10.76	66% 124150-63912 (188062)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$51.85	—	-$51.85	66% 98415-50861 (149276)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 95.5¢	$84.02	$50	-$34.02	55% 8301-6747 (15048)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 65¢	$42	$36	-$6	52% 89056-83535 (172591)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 26.4¢	$15.55	$58.98	+$43.44	46% 37771-44231 (82002)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$41.73	—	-$24.6	61% 93558-58834 (152392)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 73.5¢	$29.4	$40	+$10.6	65% 21027-11533 (32560)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$9.25	$15	+$5.75	65% 123874-66232 (190106)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 11¢	$1.48	—	-$1.48	63% 50847-30010 (80857)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3612-2803 (6415)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,315.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.71

Record

54%

15150-12689 (27839)

BoneOhio

Invested

$865.37

Value

$874.11

PnL

+$8.74

Record

74%

102021-36286 (138307)

GoodFallen

Invested

$791.89

Value

$773.53

PnL

-$18.36

Record

56%

13401-10703 (24104)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$699.91

Value

—

PnL

-$699.91

Record

57%

7452-5716 (13168)

ply-pm0

Invested

$546.69

Value

$531.56

PnL

-$15.12

Record

49%

4891-5058 (9949)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$454.47

Value

$603.93

PnL

+$149.46

Record

56%

12131-9366 (21497)

Both legs:

Up$372.5561.7¢+$231.38

Down$81.9231.8¢-$81.92

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$281.19

Value

—

PnL

-$281.19

Record

55%

7064-5780 (12844)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$402.06

Value

$432.7

PnL

+$30.64

Record

77%

9234-2693 (11927)

Both legs:

Up$370.6785.7¢+$62.03

Down$31.3932¢-$31.39

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$243.77

Value

$236.59

PnL

-$5.42

Record

60%

11852-7772 (19624)

Both legs:

Down$104.3757.5¢-$105.5

Up$136.5257.7¢+$100.08

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$263.88

Value

$325.58

PnL

+$61.7

Record

57%

11665-8678 (20343)

Both legs:

Up$205.1363¢+$120.45

Down$58.7564.5¢-$58.75

sir-upalot

Invested

$147.29

Value

$168.95

PnL

+$21.66

Record

55%

23513-19032 (42545)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$132.38

Value

$157.85

PnL

+$25.46

Record

55%

43829-36245 (80074)

gansinimenCTR

Down

Invested

$135.37

Value

—

PnL

-$135.37

Record

51%

16907-16495 (33402)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$71.81

Value

—

PnL

-$71.81

Record

48%

22979-25022 (48001)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$101.08

Value

$81.51

PnL

-$19.57

Record

57%

10052-7532 (17584)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$73.11

Value

$62.35

PnL

-$10.76

Record

66%

124150-63912 (188062)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.85

Value

—

PnL

-$51.85

Record

66%

98415-50861 (149276)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$84.02

Value

$50

PnL

-$34.02

Record

55%

8301-6747 (15048)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$36

PnL

-$6

Record

52%

89056-83535 (172591)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$15.55

Value

$58.98

PnL

+$43.44

Record

46%

37771-44231 (82002)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.73

Value

—

PnL

-$24.6

Record

61%

93558-58834 (152392)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$40

PnL

+$10.6

Record

65%

21027-11533 (32560)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$15

PnL

+$5.75

Record

65%

123874-66232 (190106)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.48

Value

—

PnL

-$1.48

Record

63%

50847-30010 (80857)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3612-2803 (6415)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa7cebefd...25937c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793146200

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.3K

+$7.71

BoneOhio

Up — $874.11

+$8.74

GoodFallen

Up — $773.53

-$18.36

wzbbb

CTR

Down — $0

-$699.91

ply-pm0

Up — $531.56

-$15.12

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$149.46

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $0

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded