Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$23.33

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 23 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,380

Combined PnL+$284.16

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,437

Combined PnL-$260.82

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 96.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$54.12	74% 102021-36286 (138307)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 97.3¢	$453.39	$465.88	+$12.49	50% 631-639 (1270)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 11.7¢	$167.62	—	-$167.62	55% 8301-6747 (15048)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$463.22	$485	+$21.77	57% 7452-5716 (13168)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.5¢	$400.18	$485	+$84.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.9¢	$63.04	—	-$63.04
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 85.3¢	$336.1	$308.02	-$28.08	49% 4891-5058 (9949)
RO Rock.San	Downavg 92.6¢	$548.09	$592.17	+$44.07	89% 11872-1412 (13284)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 89.8¢	$325.99	$316.58	-$9.41	60% 11852-7772 (19624)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.8¢	$284.15	$316.58	+$32.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.4¢	$41.84	—	-$41.84
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$296.89	$303.77	+$6.88	54% 15150-12689 (27839)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$173.14	$303.77	+$130.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$123.75	—	-$123.75
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$206.61	$208.7	+$2.09	56% 29196-23025 (52221)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 99¢	$267.99	$200	-$67.99	51% 16907-16495 (33402)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 10.8¢	$40.17	—	-$40.17	46% 37771-44231 (82002)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 67.3¢	$131.59	$151.71	+$23.97	55% 7064-5780 (12844)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.8¢	$26.13	—	-$26.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.3¢	$102.09	$151.71	+$50.1
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 99¢	$148.58	$150.08	+$1.5	56% 57449-44380 (101829)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 87.7¢	$263.05	$300	+$36.95	48% 22979-25022 (48001)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$129.79	$117	-$12.79	56% 13401-10703 (24104)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$71.58	—	-$71.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$58.21	$117	+$58.79
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 76.5¢	$187.95	$245.84	+$57.89	57% 10052-7532 (17584)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 73.7¢	$144.91	$190.45	+$45.55	57% 11665-8678 (20343)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 7.2¢	$10.97	—	-$10.97	55% 43829-36245 (80074)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 50.6¢	$73.49	$145.23	+$71.74	66% 98415-50861 (149276)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 39.8¢	$58.65	$43.04	-$15.61	56% 12131-9366 (21497)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$37.85	—	-$37.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$20.8	$43.04	+$22.24
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$26.4	—	-$26.4	65% 123874-66232 (190106)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$31.39	$47.93	+$16.54	52% 89056-83535 (172591)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$27.84	$36.57	+$8.73	66% 124150-63912 (188062)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$7.56	—	-$7.56	58% 60004-43803 (103807)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$25.53	$32.25	+$7.52	61% 93558-58834 (152392)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,363.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$54.12

Record

74%

102021-36286 (138307)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$453.39

Value

$465.88

PnL

+$12.49

Record

50%

631-639 (1270)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$167.62

Value

—

PnL

-$167.62

Record

55%

8301-6747 (15048)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$463.22

Value

$485

PnL

+$21.77

Record

57%

7452-5716 (13168)

Both legs:

Down$400.1882.5¢+$84.81

Up$63.0423.9¢-$63.04

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$336.1

Value

$308.02

PnL

-$28.08

Record

49%

4891-5058 (9949)

Rock.San

Down

Invested

$548.09

Value

$592.17

PnL

+$44.07

Record

89%

11872-1412 (13284)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$325.99

Value

$316.58

PnL

-$9.41

Record

60%

11852-7772 (19624)

Both legs:

Down$284.1589.8¢+$32.43

Up$41.8416.4¢-$41.84

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$296.89

Value

$303.77

PnL

+$6.88

Record

54%

15150-12689 (27839)

Both legs:

Down$173.1457¢+$130.63

Up$123.7546.7¢-$123.75

THG.

Down

Invested

$206.61

Value

$208.7

PnL

+$2.09

Record

56%

29196-23025 (52221)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$267.99

Value

$200

PnL

-$67.99

Record

51%

16907-16495 (33402)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$40.17

Value

—

PnL

-$40.17

Record

46%

37771-44231 (82002)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$131.59

Value

$151.71

PnL

+$23.97

Record

55%

7064-5780 (12844)

Both legs:

Up$26.1315.8¢-$26.13

Down$102.0967.3¢+$50.1

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$148.58

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

57449-44380 (101829)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$263.05

Value

$300

PnL

+$36.95

Record

48%

22979-25022 (48001)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$129.79

Value

$117

PnL

-$12.79

Record

56%

13401-10703 (24104)

Both legs:

Up$71.5843.1¢-$71.58

Down$58.2149.8¢+$58.79

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$187.95

Value

$245.84

PnL

+$57.89

Record

57%

10052-7532 (17584)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$144.91

Value

$190.45

PnL

+$45.55

Record

57%

11665-8678 (20343)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

—

PnL

-$10.97

Record

55%

43829-36245 (80074)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$73.49

Value

$145.23

PnL

+$71.74

Record

66%

98415-50861 (149276)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$58.65

Value

$43.04

PnL

-$15.61

Record

56%

12131-9366 (21497)

Both legs:

Up$37.8539.8¢-$37.85

Down$20.848.3¢+$22.24

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

—

PnL

-$26.4

Record

65%

123874-66232 (190106)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$31.39

Value

$47.93

PnL

+$16.54

Record

52%

89056-83535 (172591)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$27.84

Value

$36.57

PnL

+$8.73

Record

66%

124150-63912 (188062)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$7.56

Value

—

PnL

-$7.56

Record

58%

60004-43803 (103807)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$25.53

Value

$32.25

PnL

+$7.52

Record

61%

93558-58834 (152392)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 23 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0fd351ff...5689bf

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793145900

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $1.4K

+$54.12

seeeeeeb

Down — $465.88

machinelearned

Up — $0

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $308.02

-$28.08

Rock.San

Down — $592.17

+$44.07

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.41

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$6.88

THG.

Down — $208.7

+$2.09

gansinimen

Down — $200

-$67.99

Trade on Polymarket