Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 29%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Signal

7 of 22 top traders (32%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,263

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Down15 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,602

Combined PnL+$803.11

Up — 32%Down — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Upavg 41.8¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	51% 865-838 (1703)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$842.22	$899.91	+$57.69	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.7¢	$555.33	$899.91	+$344.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.5¢	$286.89	—	-$286.89
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$373.51	$379.86	+$6.35	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.3¢	$141.35	—	-$141.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$232.16	$379.86	+$147.69
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$339.24	$478.32	+$139.09	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.5¢	$270.46	$478.32	+$207.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 17¢	$68.78	—	-$68.78
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$417.62	$447.64	+$30.02	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$269.43	$447.64	+$178.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.4¢	$148.19	—	-$148.19
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 41.9¢	$417.18	—	-$417.18	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
NIULAI4	Downavg 92.5¢	$500.63	$541.42	+$40.8	77% 9228-2692 (11920)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$288.53	$350	+$61.47	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.7¢	$195.1	$350	+$154.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$93.43	—	-$93.43
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$310.33	$290.92	-$19.41	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.9¢	$217.94	$290.92	+$72.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$92.39	—	-$92.39
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 67.9¢	$289.72	$311.82	+$24.6	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.9¢	$211.76	$311.82	+$100.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$76.13	—	-$75.46
pspspsps5	Downavg 58.3¢	$212.38	$364.32	+$151.94	46% 37757-44204 (81961)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$167.06	$232.97	+$65.92	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.9¢	$137.31	$232.97	+$95.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 35¢	$29.75	—	-$29.75
HO hoodquant	Downavg 94¢	$273.43	$291	+$17.57	93% 22338-1719 (24057)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Upavg 44¢	$132	—	-$132	63% 1748-1011 (2759)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 59¢	$149.25	$252.77	+$103.51	56% 57437-44370 (101807)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 18.9¢	$83.15	$50	-$33.15	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.9¢	$50.65	—	-$50.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$32.5	$50	+$17.5
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 51.9¢	$141.01	$235.97	+$94.97	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 54.4¢	$115.01	$211.57	+$96.56	58% 59994-43795 (103789)
RL RLWGCTR	Upavg 42.6¢	$119.35	—	-$119.35	50% 7589-7613 (15202)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 49.3¢	$109.96	$160	+$50.04	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 50.6¢	$74.3	$139.98	+$65.68	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
ohioism	Downavg 50¢	$76.6	$153.2	+$76.6	64% 39618-22602 (62220)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$50	—	-$50	58% 12461-9128 (21589)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 50¢	$30.6	$61.2	+$30.6	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$30.98	$57.15	+$26.17	66% 124118-63886 (188004)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Invested

$1,483.93

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

865-838 (1703)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$842.22

Value

$899.91

PnL

+$57.69

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Down$555.3361.7¢+$344.58

Up$286.8936.5¢-$286.89

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$373.51

Value

$379.86

PnL

+$6.35

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

Both legs:

Up$141.3515.3¢-$141.35

Down$232.1661.1¢+$147.69

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$339.24

Value

$478.32

PnL

+$139.09

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

Both legs:

Down$270.4656.5¢+$207.87

Up$68.7817¢-$68.78

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$417.62

Value

$447.64

PnL

+$30.02

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

Both legs:

Down$269.4360.2¢+$178.21

Up$148.1934.4¢-$148.19

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$417.18

Value

—

PnL

-$417.18

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$500.63

Value

$541.42

PnL

+$40.8

Record

77%

9228-2692 (11920)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$288.53

Value

$350

PnL

+$61.47

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

Both legs:

Down$195.155.7¢+$154.9

Up$93.4338.4¢-$93.43

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$310.33

Value

$290.92

PnL

-$19.41

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

Both legs:

Down$217.9474.9¢+$72.98

Up$92.3936.9¢-$92.39

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$289.72

Value

$311.82

PnL

+$24.6

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

Both legs:

Down$211.7667.9¢+$100.06

Up$76.1336.7¢-$75.46

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$212.38

Value

$364.32

PnL

+$151.94

Record

46%

37757-44204 (81961)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$167.06

Value

$232.97

PnL

+$65.92

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Down$137.3158.9¢+$95.67

Up$29.7535¢-$29.75

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$273.43

Value

$291

PnL

+$17.57

Record

93%

22338-1719 (24057)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Invested

$132

Value

—

PnL

-$132

Record

63%

1748-1011 (2759)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$149.25

Value

$252.77

PnL

+$103.51

Record

56%

57437-44370 (101807)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$83.15

Value

$50

PnL

-$33.15

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

Both legs:

Invested

$141.01

Value

$235.97

PnL

+$94.97

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$115.01

Value

$211.57

PnL

+$96.56

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

RLWGCTR

Invested

$119.35

Value

—

PnL

-$119.35

Record

50%

7589-7613 (15202)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$109.96

Value

$160

PnL

+$50.04

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$74.3

Value

$139.98

PnL

+$65.68

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$76.6

Value

$153.2

PnL

+$76.6

Record

64%

39618-22602 (62220)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

—

PnL

-$50

Record

58%

12461-9128 (21589)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$30.6

Value

$61.2

PnL

+$30.6

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$30.98

Value

$57.15

PnL

+$26.17

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

Smart Money Signal

7 of 22 top traders (32%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe874c963...ec9675

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793145300

Traders in this Market

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.5K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Up — $0

NIULAI4

Down — $541.42

+$40.8

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$61.47

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.41

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$24.6

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