Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$781.88
-$221.14
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 40¢ | $225.96 | — | -$225.96 | 66% 98405-50847 (149252) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 86.3¢ | $219.83 | $242.81 | +$22.98 | 57% 7436-5708 (13144) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $149.18 | $149.99 | +$0.81 | 49% 4881-5050 (9931) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $129.8 | $132 | +$2.2 | 60% 11842-7764 (19606) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79¢ | $104.28 | $132 | +$27.72 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29¢ | $25.52 | — | -$25.52 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $57.19 | $60.49 | +$3.3 | 54% 15136-12685 (27821) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.6¢ | $44.1 | — | -$44.1 | 59% 61872-42853 (104725) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $36.66 | $60.1 | +$23.44 | 57% 10049-7530 (17579) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 91.6¢ | $31.59 | $34.5 | +$2.91 | 65% 123835-66215 (190050) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $21.45 | $33 | +$11.55 | 57% 11656-8669 (20325) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $26.1 | $30 | +$3.9 | 56% 12123-9356 (21479) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 48% 22972-25014 (47986) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.1¢ | $14.63 | — | -$14.63 | 46% 37757-44204 (81961) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $13.65 | $21 | +$7.35 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 51% 16906-16492 (33398) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $8.28 | $12 | +$3.72 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $5.04 | — | -$5.04 | 55% 8297-6733 (15030) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $4.86 | $6 | +$1.14 | 56% 57437-44370 (101807) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $1.24 | — | -$1.24 | 56% 13389-10698 (24087) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $2.22 | — | -$1.67 | 55% 7052-5774 (12826) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3612-2802 (6414) |
Invested
$225.96
Value
—
PnL
-$225.96
Record
66%
98405-50847 (149252)
Invested
$219.83
Value
$242.81
PnL
+$22.98
Record
57%
7436-5708 (13144)
Invested
$149.18
Value
$149.99
PnL
+$0.81
Record
49%
4881-5050 (9931)
Invested
$129.8
Value
$132
PnL
+$2.2
Record
60%
11842-7764 (19606)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.19
Value
$60.49
PnL
+$3.3
Record
54%
15136-12685 (27821)
Invested
$44.1
Value
—
PnL
-$44.1
Record
59%
61872-42853 (104725)
Invested
$36.66
Value
$60.1
PnL
+$23.44
Record
57%
10049-7530 (17579)
Invested
$31.59
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$2.91
Record
65%
123835-66215 (190050)
Invested
$21.45
Value
$33
PnL
+$11.55
Record
57%
11656-8669 (20325)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$26.1
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.9
Record
56%
12123-9356 (21479)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
22972-25014 (47986)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$14.63
Value
—
PnL
-$14.63
Record
46%
37757-44204 (81961)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.65
Value
$21
PnL
+$7.35
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
51%
16906-16492 (33398)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$12
PnL
+$3.72
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
—
PnL
-$5.04
Record
55%
8297-6733 (15030)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.14
Record
56%
57437-44370 (101807)
Invested
$1.24
Value
—
PnL
-$1.24
Record
56%
13389-10698 (24087)
Invested
$2.22
Value
—
PnL
-$1.67
Record
55%
7052-5774 (12826)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3612-2802 (6414)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
Down — $242.81
ply-pm0
Down — $149.99
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $60.49
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
trdyugiolkw
Down — $60.1
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $34.5
EZTRADENL2
Down — $33
FairValueMachine
Down — $30