Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 55%
3 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$822.19
Smart Money Signal
12 of 21 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7CTR | Downavg 1.6¢ | $111.41 | — | -$111.41 | 59% 61872-42853 (104725) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 34.4¢ | $702.82 | — | -$702.82 | 58% 37338-26566 (63904) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 67¢ | $299.31 | $311.61 | +$12.3 | 54% 15136-12685 (27821) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $130.95 | $230.99 | +$100.04 | 57% 11656-8669 (20325) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 53.7¢ | $133.3 | $189.87 | +$56.57 | 56% 13389-10698 (24087) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 64.3¢ | $151.23 | $137.81 | -$13.41 | 49% 4881-5050 (9931) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.3¢ | $88.59 | $137.81 | +$49.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.8¢ | $62.64 | — | -$62.64 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Upavg 74.8¢ | $146.27 | $136.32 | -$9.95 | 65% 123835-66215 (190050) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58¢ | $44.25 | — | -$44.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.8¢ | $102.02 | $136.32 | +$34.3 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 72.2¢ | $74.34 | $101.68 | +$27.34 | 55% 7052-5774 (12826) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $27 | — | -$27 | 51% 16906-16492 (33398) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $46.55 | — | -$46.55 | 58% 50695-36819 (87514) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $54.13 | — | -$54.13 | 54% 10215-8684 (18899) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $30 | — | -$30 | 48% 22972-25014 (47986) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Upavg 55.5¢ | $51.84 | $57.18 | +$5.34 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.6¢ | $20.08 | — | -$20.08 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.5¢ | $31.76 | $57.18 | +$25.42 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 6.8¢ | $17.76 | — | -$17.76 | 46% 37757-44204 (81961) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.4¢ | $13.57 | — | -$13.57 | 55% 8297-6733 (15030) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 68.1¢ | $46.74 | $39.99 | -$6.75 | 56% 12123-9356 (21479) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $39 | $50.14 | +$11.14 | 58% 59994-43795 (103789) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $11.4 | — | -$11.4 | 57% 7436-5708 (13144) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $17.92 | $13.11 | +$0.23 | 61% 93527-58804 (152331) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $4.61 | $5.38 | +$0.77 | 60% 11842-7764 (19606) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.3¢ | $10.45 | — | -$10.45 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $5.36 | $8 | +$2.64 | 56% 57437-44370 (101807) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $1.38 | — | -$1.38 | 65% 20975-11511 (32486) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3612-2802 (6414) |
Invested
$111.41
Value
—
PnL
-$111.41
Record
59%
61872-42853 (104725)
Invested
$702.82
Value
—
PnL
-$702.82
Record
58%
37338-26566 (63904)
Invested
$299.31
Value
$311.61
PnL
+$12.3
Record
54%
15136-12685 (27821)
Invested
$130.95
Value
$230.99
PnL
+$100.04
Record
57%
11656-8669 (20325)
Invested
$133.3
Value
$189.87
PnL
+$56.57
Record
56%
13389-10698 (24087)
Invested
$151.23
Value
$137.81
PnL
-$13.41
Record
49%
4881-5050 (9931)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.27
Value
$136.32
PnL
-$9.95
Record
65%
123835-66215 (190050)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.34
Value
$101.68
PnL
+$27.34
Record
55%
7052-5774 (12826)
Invested
$27
Value
—
PnL
-$27
Record
51%
16906-16492 (33398)
Invested
$46.55
Value
—
PnL
-$46.55
Record
58%
50695-36819 (87514)
Invested
$54.13
Value
—
PnL
-$54.13
Record
54%
10215-8684 (18899)
Invested
$30
Value
—
PnL
-$30
Record
48%
22972-25014 (47986)
Invested
$51.84
Value
$57.18
PnL
+$5.34
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$17.76
Value
—
PnL
-$17.76
Record
46%
37757-44204 (81961)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$13.57
Value
—
PnL
-$13.57
Record
55%
8297-6733 (15030)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$46.74
Value
$39.99
PnL
-$6.75
Record
56%
12123-9356 (21479)
Invested
$39
Value
$50.14
PnL
+$11.14
Record
58%
59994-43795 (103789)
Invested
$11.4
Value
—
PnL
-$11.4
Record
57%
7436-5708 (13144)
Invested
$17.92
Value
$13.11
PnL
+$0.23
Record
61%
93527-58804 (152331)
Invested
$4.61
Value
$5.38
PnL
+$0.77
Record
60%
11842-7764 (19606)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$10.45
Value
—
PnL
-$10.45
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
$5.36
Value
$8
PnL
+$2.64
Record
56%
57437-44370 (101807)
Invested
$1.38
Value
—
PnL
-$1.38
Record
65%
20975-11511 (32486)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3612-2802 (6414)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $311.61
EZTRADENL2
Up — $230.99
GoodFallen
Up — $189.87
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $101.68
gansinimen
CTRDown — $0
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0