Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$8.9K
$-3.6K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.8¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$7.12 | 59% 61872-42853 (104725) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | $-3.9K | 56% 3612-2802 (6414) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 87.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$39.88 | 57% 7436-5708 (13144) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 44.7¢ | $422.66 | $791.19 | +$368.54 | 58% 37338-26566 (63904) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.4¢ | $476.77 | $453.31 | -$23.46 | 54% 15136-12685 (27821) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 63.1¢ | $224.76 | $232.58 | +$7.82 | 49% 4881-5050 (9931) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 57.3¢ | $140.58 | $245.44 | +$104.86 | 57% 11656-8669 (20325) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 47.3¢ | $93.46 | $186.84 | +$93.38 | 55% 8297-6733 (15030) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 77.8¢ | $133.73 | $147.13 | +$13.4 | 60% 11842-7764 (19606) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $112.51 | $100 | -$12.51 | 51% 16906-16492 (33398) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $59.05 | — | -$59.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $53.46 | $100 | +$46.54 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 38.3¢ | $146.3 | — | -$146.3 | 56% 13389-10698 (24087) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $89.28 | $85.14 | -$4.14 | 56% 12123-9356 (21479) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $77.85 | — | -$77.85 | 12% 17890-132710 (150600) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.9¢ | $80.95 | — | -$80.95 | 54% 10215-8684 (18899) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $61.2 | — | -$61.2 | 66% 98405-50847 (149252) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.8¢ | $44.51 | — | -$44.51 | 55% 7052-5774 (12826) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $24.48 | $33.46 | +$8.98 | 52% 89030-83502 (172532) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $24.1 | $51.25 | +$27.15 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $17.18 | $36.35 | +$19.17 | 61% 93527-58804 (152331) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $14.96 | $22 | +$7.04 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $5 | +$1.25 | 65% 123835-66215 (190050) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 8.7¢ | $34.3 | — | -$34.3 | 46% 37757-44204 (81961) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 48% 22972-25014 (47986) |
Invested
$5,440.65
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$7.12
Record
59%
61872-42853 (104725)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
$-3.9K
Record
56%
3612-2802 (6414)
Invested
$1,046.97
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$39.88
Record
57%
7436-5708 (13144)
Invested
$422.66
Value
$791.19
PnL
+$368.54
Record
58%
37338-26566 (63904)
Invested
$476.77
Value
$453.31
PnL
-$23.46
Record
54%
15136-12685 (27821)
Invested
$224.76
Value
$232.58
PnL
+$7.82
Record
49%
4881-5050 (9931)
Invested
$140.58
Value
$245.44
PnL
+$104.86
Record
57%
11656-8669 (20325)
machinelearnedInvested
$93.46
Value
$186.84
PnL
+$93.38
Record
55%
8297-6733 (15030)
Invested
$133.73
Value
$147.13
PnL
+$13.4
Record
60%
11842-7764 (19606)
Invested
$112.51
Value
$100
PnL
-$12.51
Record
51%
16906-16492 (33398)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.3
Value
—
PnL
-$146.3
Record
56%
13389-10698 (24087)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$89.28
Value
$85.14
PnL
-$4.14
Record
56%
12123-9356 (21479)
Invested
$77.85
Value
—
PnL
-$77.85
Record
12%
17890-132710 (150600)
Invested
$80.95
Value
—
PnL
-$80.95
Record
54%
10215-8684 (18899)
Invested
$61.2
Value
—
PnL
-$61.2
Record
66%
98405-50847 (149252)
Invested
$44.51
Value
—
PnL
-$44.51
Record
55%
7052-5774 (12826)
Invested
$24.48
Value
$33.46
PnL
+$8.98
Record
52%
89030-83502 (172532)
Invested
$24.1
Value
$51.25
PnL
+$27.15
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
Invested
$17.18
Value
$36.35
PnL
+$19.17
Record
61%
93527-58804 (152331)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$14.96
Value
$22
PnL
+$7.04
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.25
Record
65%
123835-66215 (190050)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$34.3
Value
—
PnL
-$34.3
Record
46%
37757-44204 (81961)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
48%
22972-25014 (47986)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $5.4K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
Down — $1.1K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $791.19
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $453.31
ply-pm0
Down — $232.58
EZTRADENL2
Down — $245.44
machinelearned
Down — $186.84
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $147.13
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded