Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 70%
1 arb excluded
$8.9K
-$368.42
Smart Money Signal
16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barrister | Up | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$32.9 | 56% 3612-2802 (6414) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.24 | 74% 102017-36283 (138300) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 87.4¢ | $400.77 | $444.67 | +$43.9 | 57% 7436-5708 (13144) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 96.6¢ | $380.13 | $385.46 | +$5.33 | 54% 10215-8684 (18899) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 28.4¢ | $351.57 | — | -$351.57 | 58% 37338-26566 (63904) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 73.3¢ | $260.68 | $299.52 | +$38.84 | 54% 15136-12685 (27821) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 80.8¢ | $175.06 | $186 | +$10.94 | 60% 11842-7764 (19606) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $182.06 | $161.38 | -$20.68 | 49% 4881-5050 (9931) |
SE seeeeeeb | Upavg 86¢ | $196.48 | $228.46 | +$31.98 | 50% 626-637 (1263) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $172 | $100 | -$72 | 51% 16906-16492 (33398) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 91¢ | $91 | $100 | +$9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27¢ | $81 | — | -$81 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 41.1¢ | $118.37 | — | -$118.37 | 66% 98405-50847 (149252) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 70.6¢ | $106.59 | $126.79 | +$20.2 | 56% 13389-10698 (24087) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 87.3¢ | $117.27 | $112.62 | -$4.66 | 55% 7052-5774 (12826) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 64.2¢ | $90.39 | $129.99 | +$39.6 | 56% 12123-9356 (21479) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 99¢ | $102.79 | $103 | +$0.21 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $66.09 | — | -$66.09 | 58% 50695-36819 (87514) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $35.99 | $47.6 | +$11.61 | 57% 11656-8669 (20325) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 82.9¢ | $37.59 | $45.32 | +$7.73 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 90.9¢ | $38.96 | $42.85 | +$3.89 | 61% 93527-58804 (152331) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.2¢ | $27.59 | — | -$27.59 | 59% 61872-42853 (104725) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $25.74 | $26 | +$0.26 | 52% 89030-83502 (172532) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $13.36 | — | -$13.36 | 48% 22972-25014 (47986) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5.2¢ | $22.73 | — | -$22.73 | 46% 37757-44204 (81961) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 55% 8297-6733 (15030) |
Invested
$4,990
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$32.9
Record
56%
3612-2802 (6414)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,409.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.24
Record
74%
102017-36283 (138300)
Invested
$400.77
Value
$444.67
PnL
+$43.9
Record
57%
7436-5708 (13144)
Invested
$380.13
Value
$385.46
PnL
+$5.33
Record
54%
10215-8684 (18899)
Invested
$351.57
Value
—
PnL
-$351.57
Record
58%
37338-26566 (63904)
Invested
$260.68
Value
$299.52
PnL
+$38.84
Record
54%
15136-12685 (27821)
Invested
$175.06
Value
$186
PnL
+$10.94
Record
60%
11842-7764 (19606)
Invested
$182.06
Value
$161.38
PnL
-$20.68
Record
49%
4881-5050 (9931)
Invested
$196.48
Value
$228.46
PnL
+$31.98
Record
50%
626-637 (1263)
Invested
$172
Value
$100
PnL
-$72
Record
51%
16906-16492 (33398)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.37
Value
—
PnL
-$118.37
Record
66%
98405-50847 (149252)
Invested
$106.59
Value
$126.79
PnL
+$20.2
Record
56%
13389-10698 (24087)
Invested
$117.27
Value
$112.62
PnL
-$4.66
Record
55%
7052-5774 (12826)
FairValueMachineInvested
$90.39
Value
$129.99
PnL
+$39.6
Record
56%
12123-9356 (21479)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$102.79
Value
$103
PnL
+$0.21
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
$66.09
Value
—
PnL
-$66.09
Record
58%
50695-36819 (87514)
Invested
$35.99
Value
$47.6
PnL
+$11.61
Record
57%
11656-8669 (20325)
Invested
$37.59
Value
$45.32
PnL
+$7.73
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
Invested
$38.96
Value
$42.85
PnL
+$3.89
Record
61%
93527-58804 (152331)
Invested
$27.59
Value
—
PnL
-$27.59
Record
59%
61872-42853 (104725)
Invested
$25.74
Value
$26
PnL
+$0.26
Record
52%
89030-83502 (172532)
Invested
$13.36
Value
—
PnL
-$13.36
Record
48%
22972-25014 (47986)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$22.73
Value
—
PnL
-$22.73
Record
46%
37757-44204 (81961)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
55%
8297-6733 (15030)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
BoneOhio
Up — $1.4K
wzbbb
Up — $444.67
thesidehustle
Up — $385.46
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $299.52
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $186
ply-pm0
Up — $161.38
seeeeeeb
Up — $228.46
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded