Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 22 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares13,711

Combined PnL+$680.36

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,950

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$266.53	56% 3612-2802 (6414)
0X 0x50f7ARB<$100	Downavg 98.6¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$97.73	59% 61872-42853 (104725)
└ Up leg	Upavg 3.9¢	$140.95	—	-$140.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 98.6¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$43.23
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.81	93% 22338-1719 (24057)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$954.37	$1.1K	+$152.81	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$475.55	—	-$475.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$478.83	$1.1K	+$628.36
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35.01	74% 102017-36283 (138300)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 56.6¢	$820.2	—	-$820.2	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
TH THG.	Downavg 94.2¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$183.87	56% 29188-23025 (52213)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 24.6¢	$306.28	—	-$306.28	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$477.28	$512.33	+$35.05	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$265.33	—	-$265.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$211.95	$512.33	+$300.38
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$558.92	$515.23	-$43.69	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$255.42	—	-$255.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.9¢	$303.5	$515.23	+$211.73
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 43.1¢	$309.18	—	-$309.18	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Upavg 49.2¢	$229.45	—	-$228.3	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 45.2¢	$201.29	$264.24	+$62.95	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.4¢	$81.92	—	-$81.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$119.37	$264.24	+$144.86
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 39.4¢	$91.88	—	-$91.88	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 65.9¢	$126.8	$143.32	+$16.52	54% 10215-8684 (18899)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 29¢	$18.6	$60	+$41.4	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$66.8	—	-$66.8	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$46.37	—	-$46.37	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$73.99	$61.51	-$12.48	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 39¢	$31.66	$74.56	+$42.9	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 49¢	$24.52	$50.05	+$25.53	58% 50695-36819 (87514)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 68¢	$40.8	$60	+$19.2	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 36.3¢	$11.45	$31.56	+$20.11	52% 89030-83502 (172532)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 63¢	$25.94	$30	+$8.2	65% 20975-11511 (32486)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 65¢	$19.35	$25.75	+$9.16	61% 93527-58804 (152331)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,957.63

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$266.53

Record

56%

3612-2802 (6414)

0x50f7ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$3,105.74

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$97.73

Record

59%

61872-42853 (104725)

Both legs:

Up$140.953.9¢-$140.95

Down$2,964.7898.6¢+$43.23

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,524.68

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.81

Record

93%

22338-1719 (24057)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$954.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$152.81

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Up$475.5554.8¢-$475.55

Down$478.8343.2¢+$628.36

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,465.89

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35.01

Record

74%

102017-36283 (138300)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$820.2

Value

—

PnL

-$820.2

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,977.13

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$183.87

Record

56%

29188-23025 (52213)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$306.28

Value

—

PnL

-$306.28

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$477.28

Value

$512.33

PnL

+$35.05

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

Both legs:

Up$265.3350.2¢-$265.33

Down$211.9541.4¢+$300.38

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$558.92

Value

$515.23

PnL

-$43.69

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

Both legs:

Up$255.4261.4¢-$255.42

Down$303.558.9¢+$211.73

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$309.18

Value

—

PnL

-$309.18

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Invested

$229.45

Value

—

PnL

-$228.3

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$201.29

Value

$264.24

PnL

+$62.95

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

Both legs:

Up$81.9246.4¢-$81.92

Down$119.3745.2¢+$144.86

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$91.88

Value

—

PnL

-$91.88

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$126.8

Value

$143.32

PnL

+$16.52

Record

54%

10215-8684 (18899)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$18.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$41.4

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$66.8

Value

—

PnL

-$66.8

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$46.37

Value

—

PnL

-$46.37

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$73.99

Value

$61.51

PnL

-$12.48

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$31.66

Value

$74.56

PnL

+$42.9

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$24.52

Value

$50.05

PnL

+$25.53

Record

58%

50695-36819 (87514)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$40.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$19.2

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$11.45

Value

$31.56

PnL

+$20.11

Record

52%

89030-83502 (172532)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$25.94

Value

$30

PnL

+$8.2

Record

65%

20975-11511 (32486)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$19.35

Value

$25.75

PnL

+$9.16

Record

61%

93527-58804 (152331)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 22 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc94612e4...b4b04e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793143200

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$266.53

0x50f7

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$97.73

hoodquant

Down — $1.5K

+$15.81

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$152.81

BoneOhio

Down — $3.5K

+$35.01

wzbbb

CTR

Up — $0

-$820.2

THG.

Down — $3.2K

ply-pm0

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded