Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 60%
2 arb excluded
$4.6K
$69.44
Smart Money Signal
12 of 21 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 95¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$39.3 | 57% 7436-5708 (13144) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.92 | 74% 102017-36283 (138300) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 59¢ | $434.11 | $404.99 | -$29.13 | 54% 15136-12685 (27821) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 42.1¢ | $356.8 | $259.18 | -$97.62 | 58% 37338-26566 (63904) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.1¢ | $231.26 | — | -$231.26 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.4¢ | $125.53 | $259.18 | +$133.65 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $133.09 | $121.98 | -$11.1 | 54% 10215-8684 (18899) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18¢ | $54.34 | — | -$54.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.6¢ | $78.74 | $121.98 | +$43.24 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 56.7¢ | $151.37 | $217.65 | +$66.29 | 55% 7052-5774 (12826) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $118.62 | $193.91 | +$75.29 | 57% 11656-8669 (20325) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 78.1¢ | $131.26 | $161.76 | +$30.5 | 55% 8297-6733 (15030) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $151.53 | $150 | -$1.53 | 49% 4881-5050 (9931) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 56.7¢ | $117.27 | $175 | +$57.73 | 56% 12123-9356 (21479) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.3¢ | $90.18 | — | -$90.18 | 56% 13389-10698 (24087) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 68.9¢ | $60.23 | $64.42 | +$4.19 | 60% 11842-7764 (19606) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.4¢ | $24.26 | — | -$24.26 | 59% 61872-42853 (104725) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.9¢ | $6.74 | — | -$6.74 | 46% 37757-44204 (81961) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.3¢ | $34.01 | — | -$34.01 | 58% 50695-36819 (87514) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $24.37 | $30.28 | +$5.91 | 65% 20975-11511 (32486) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $40.15 | — | -$40.15 | 65% 123835-66215 (190050) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $6.3 | $7 | +$0.7 | 61% 93527-58804 (152331) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $4.74 | $10.31 | +$5.57 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.5¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 52% 89030-83502 (172532) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.51 | — | -$0.51 | 62% 43524-26450 (69974) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $1.14 | — | -$1.14 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3612-2802 (6414) |
Invested
$1,496.71
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$39.3
Record
57%
7436-5708 (13144)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,278.94
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.92
Record
74%
102017-36283 (138300)
Invested
$434.11
Value
$404.99
PnL
-$29.13
Record
54%
15136-12685 (27821)
Invested
$356.8
Value
$259.18
PnL
-$97.62
Record
58%
37338-26566 (63904)
Both legs:
Invested
$133.09
Value
$121.98
PnL
-$11.1
Record
54%
10215-8684 (18899)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.37
Value
$217.65
PnL
+$66.29
Record
55%
7052-5774 (12826)
Invested
$118.62
Value
$193.91
PnL
+$75.29
Record
57%
11656-8669 (20325)
machinelearnedInvested
$131.26
Value
$161.76
PnL
+$30.5
Record
55%
8297-6733 (15030)
Invested
$151.53
Value
$150
PnL
-$1.53
Record
49%
4881-5050 (9931)
FairValueMachineInvested
$117.27
Value
$175
PnL
+$57.73
Record
56%
12123-9356 (21479)
Invested
$90.18
Value
—
PnL
-$90.18
Record
56%
13389-10698 (24087)
Invested
$60.23
Value
$64.42
PnL
+$4.19
Record
60%
11842-7764 (19606)
Invested
$24.26
Value
—
PnL
-$24.26
Record
59%
61872-42853 (104725)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$6.74
Value
—
PnL
-$6.74
Record
46%
37757-44204 (81961)
Invested
$34.01
Value
—
PnL
-$34.01
Record
58%
50695-36819 (87514)
Invested
$24.37
Value
$30.28
PnL
+$5.91
Record
65%
20975-11511 (32486)
Invested
$40.15
Value
—
PnL
-$40.15
Record
65%
123835-66215 (190050)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.7
Record
61%
93527-58804 (152331)
Invested
$4.74
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$5.57
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
52%
89030-83502 (172532)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.51
Value
—
PnL
-$0.51
Record
62%
43524-26450 (69974)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.14
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3612-2802 (6414)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $1.5K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $404.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $217.65
EZTRADENL2
Down — $193.91
machinelearned
Down — $161.76
ply-pm0
Down — $150
FairValueMachine
Down — $175