Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

-$770.37

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,135

Combined PnL-$161.03

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,614

Combined PnL-$609.34

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bisonarcticARB<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$13.4K	$14.4K	+$990.9	47% 22-25 (47)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$8.2K	$14.4K	+$6.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.8¢	$5.2K	—	$-5.2K
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$336.71	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$787.96	$1.5K	+$756.9
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$27.44	59% 61872-42853 (104725)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$69.63	52% 1958-1772 (3730)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$888	$1.5K	+$566.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.2¢	$497.33	—	-$497.33
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 86.5¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$216.03	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
machinelearned	Upavg 58.1¢	$934.75	$879.66	-$55.09	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 56.1¢	$738.31	$849.12	+$110.81	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 70.5¢	$854.72	$827.02	-$27.7	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$645.38	$658.55	+$13.17	93% 22338-1719 (24057)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 60.8¢	$395.99	$393.15	-$2.84	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 77.1¢	$364.36	$339.84	-$24.51	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 38.6¢	$410.01	—	-$410.01	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 85.4¢	$308.83	$291.08	-$17.75	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 79¢	$239	$200	-$39	51% 16906-16492 (33398)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79¢	$158	$200	+$42
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$81	—	-$81
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 72.6¢	$242.52	$221.55	-$17.97	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 79.6¢	$211.42	$252.41	+$40.99	58% 59994-43795 (103789)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$263.52	$161.96	-$101.56	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$91.09	$161.96	+$70.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$172.42	—	-$172.42
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 67.8¢	$148.69	$157.91	+$9.22	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 78¢	$148.23	$154.04	+$5.81	56% 57437-44370 (101807)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 28.8¢	$91.94	—	-$84.64	48% 22972-25014 (47986)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 82¢	$129.25	$90	-$39.25	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82¢	$73.8	$90	+$16.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.9¢	$55.45	—	-$55.45
ohioism	Upavg 77.6¢	$117.69	$151.6	+$33.91	64% 39618-22602 (62220)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$84.84	$96.19	+$11.35	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 78.6¢	$58.1	$67.59	+$9.49	61% 93527-58804 (152331)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$37.8	—	-$37.8	58% 12461-9128 (21589)

bisonarcticARB<$100

Invested

$13,441.62

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$990.9

Record

47%

22-25 (47)

Both legs:

Up$8,239.1857.1¢+$6.2K

Down$5,202.4436.8¢$-5.2K

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,881.57

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$336.71

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

Both legs:

Down$1,093.6138¢$-1.1K

Up$787.9651¢+$756.9

0x50f7

Invested

$1,750.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$27.44

Record

59%

61872-42853 (104725)

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$1,385.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$69.63

Record

52%

1958-1772 (3730)

Both legs:

Up$88861¢+$566.96

Down$497.3335.2¢-$497.33

wzbbb

Invested

$1,232.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$216.03

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

machinelearned

Invested

$934.75

Value

$879.66

PnL

-$55.09

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$738.31

Value

$849.12

PnL

+$110.81

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

ply-pm0

Invested

$854.72

Value

$827.02

PnL

-$27.7

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

hoodquant

Invested

$645.38

Value

$658.55

PnL

+$13.17

Record

93%

22338-1719 (24057)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$395.99

Value

$393.15

PnL

-$2.84

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$364.36

Value

$339.84

PnL

-$24.51

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$410.01

Value

—

PnL

-$410.01

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$308.83

Value

$291.08

PnL

-$17.75

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$239

Value

$200

PnL

-$39

Record

51%

16906-16492 (33398)

Both legs:

Up$15879¢+$42

Down$8127¢-$81

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$242.52

Value

$221.55

PnL

-$17.97

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$211.42

Value

$252.41

PnL

+$40.99

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$263.52

Value

$161.96

PnL

-$101.56

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

Both legs:

Up$91.0956.2¢+$70.87

Down$172.4257¢-$172.42

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$148.69

Value

$157.91

PnL

+$9.22

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$148.23

Value

$154.04

PnL

+$5.81

Record

56%

57437-44370 (101807)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$91.94

Value

—

PnL

-$84.64

Record

48%

22972-25014 (47986)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$129.25

Value

$90

PnL

-$39.25

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

Both legs:

Up$73.882¢+$16.2

Down$55.4535.9¢-$55.45

ohioism

Invested

$117.69

Value

$151.6

PnL

+$33.91

Record

64%

39618-22602 (62220)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$84.84

Value

$96.19

PnL

+$11.35

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$58.1

Value

$67.59

PnL

+$9.49

Record

61%

93527-58804 (152331)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.8

Value

—

PnL

-$37.8

Record

58%

12461-9128 (21589)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfb4b48ee...9b9a50

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793142600

Traders in this Market

bisonarctic

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Up — $1.7K

-$27.44

0xdc27...afdd9a

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$69.63

wzbbb

Up — $1.0K

-$216.03

machinelearned

Up — $879.66

-$55.09

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $849.12

+$110.81

ply-pm0

Up — $827.02

-$27.7

hoodquant

Up — $658.55

+$13.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $393.15

-$2.84

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