Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 42%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.0K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 13 top traders (38%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,033

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares729

Combined PnL-$368.76

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bisonarcticARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$8.0K	$12.4K	+$4.3K	47% 22-25 (47)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$5.9K	—	$-5.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.6¢	$2.2K	$12.4K	+$10.2K
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 57.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$35.84	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.2¢	$743.54	—	-$743.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.9¢	$553.85	$1.3K	+$707.7
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 70.7¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$212.11	51% 16906-16492 (33398)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.7¢	$918.97	—	-$918.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$537.56	$1.2K	+$706.86
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 78.9¢	$1.6K	$821.33	-$779.28	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.9¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$387.61	$821.33	+$433.72
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$797.46	$1.0K	+$226.7	52% 1958-1772 (3730)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$624.25	—	-$624.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.9¢	$173.21	$1.0K	+$850.95
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$3.6	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.7¢	$713.65	—	-$713.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$387.34	$1.1K	+$717.25
Atomforge	Downavg 17.4¢	$492.91	$2.2K	+$1.7K	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$832.33	$903.43	+$71.1	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.5¢	$438.5	—	-$438.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$393.83	$903.43	+$509.6
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 37.3¢	$847.64	$1.8K	+$982.97	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$682.02	$1.8K	+$1.1K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$165.62	—	-$165.62
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$720.58	$515.97	-$204.62	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.8¢	$392.61	—	-$392.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$327.97	$515.97	+$188
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$619.23	$591.27	-$27.96	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$294.42	—	-$294.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$324.82	$591.27	+$266.45
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 72.7¢	$612.52	$494.4	-$118.12	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.7¢	$365.81	—	-$365.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$246.71	$494.4	+$247.69
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$535.44	$594.74	+$61.5	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$311.21	$594.74	+$283.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$221.21	—	-$222.02
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 75.6¢	$502.41	$278.72	-$223.7	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.6¢	$348.82	—	-$348.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$153.59	$278.72	+$125.12
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 83.1¢	$468.26	$315.01	-$153.25	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.1¢	$319.03	—	-$319.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$149.23	$315.01	+$165.78
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 45.9¢	$412.77	$900	+$487.23	48% 22972-25014 (47986)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 6.6¢	$54.96	$832.57	+$777.61	59% 61872-42853 (104725)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 47¢	$230.65	$281.5	+$50.85	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$98.25	—	-$98.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$132.4	$281.5	+$149.1
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 1.7¢	$4.75	—	-$4.75	77% 9228-2692 (11920)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 84.4¢	$196.65	—	-$196.65	58% 59994-43795 (103789)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 78.7¢	$174.91	$231.91	+$57	46% 37757-44204 (81961)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.7¢	$99.78	—	-$99.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.4¢	$75.13	$231.91	+$156.78
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$116.63	$53	-$36.88	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$77.75	—	-$77.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.1¢	$21.24	$53	+$40.87
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$56.67	$52.73	-$3.94	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$31.32	—	-$31.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.1¢	$25.35	$52.73	+$27.38
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$40.35	—	-$40.35	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 43.8¢	$37.87	—	-$29.95	61% 93527-58804 (152331)

bisonarcticARB<$100

Invested

$8,043.76

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

47%

22-25 (47)

Both legs:

Up$5,865.5746.6¢$-5.9K

Down$2,178.1917.6¢+$10.2K

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,297.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$35.84

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Up$743.5457.2¢-$743.54

Down$553.8543.9¢+$707.7

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$1,456.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$212.11

Record

51%

16906-16492 (33398)

Both legs:

Up$918.9770.7¢-$918.97

Down$537.5643.2¢+$706.86

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$1,600.6

Value

$821.33

PnL

-$779.28

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

Both legs:

Up$1,212.9978.9¢$-1.2K

Down$387.6147.2¢+$433.72

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$797.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$226.7

Record

52%

1958-1772 (3730)

Both legs:

Up$624.2549.5¢-$624.25

Down$173.2116.9¢+$850.95

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,100.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$3.6

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Up$713.6564.7¢-$713.65

Down$387.3435.1¢+$717.25

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$492.91

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$832.33

Value

$903.43

PnL

+$71.1

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

Both legs:

Up$438.559.5¢-$438.5

Down$393.8343.6¢+$509.6

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$847.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$982.97

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

Both legs:

Down$682.0237.3¢+$1.1K

Up$165.6250.5¢-$165.62

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$720.58

Value

$515.97

PnL

-$204.62

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

Both legs:

Up$392.6167.8¢-$392.61

Down$327.9763.6¢+$188

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$619.23

Value

$591.27

PnL

-$27.96

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

Both legs:

Up$294.4262.9¢-$294.42

Down$324.8254.9¢+$266.45

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$612.52

Value

$494.4

PnL

-$118.12

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

Both legs:

Up$365.8172.7¢-$365.81

Down$246.7149.9¢+$247.69

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$535.44

Value

$594.74

PnL

+$61.5

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

Both legs:

Down$311.2152.3¢+$283.53

Up$221.2160.3¢-$222.02

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$502.41

Value

$278.72

PnL

-$223.7

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

Both legs:

Up$348.8275.6¢-$348.82

Down$153.5955.1¢+$125.12

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$468.26

Value

$315.01

PnL

-$153.25

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

Both legs:

Up$319.0383.1¢-$319.03

Down$149.2347.4¢+$165.78

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$412.77

Value

$900

PnL

+$487.23

Record

48%

22972-25014 (47986)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$54.96

Value

$832.57

PnL

+$777.61

Record

59%

61872-42853 (104725)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$230.65

Value

$281.5

PnL

+$50.85

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

Both legs:

Up$98.2550.7¢-$98.25

Down$132.447¢+$149.1

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

—

PnL

-$4.75

Record

77%

9228-2692 (11920)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$196.65

Value

—

PnL

-$196.65

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$174.91

Value

$231.91

PnL

+$57

Record

46%

37757-44204 (81961)

Both legs:

Up$99.7878.7¢-$99.78

Down$75.1332.4¢+$156.78

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$116.63

Value

$53

PnL

-$36.88

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

Both legs:

Up$77.7569¢-$77.75

Down$21.2440.1¢+$40.87

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$56.67

Value

$52.73

PnL

-$3.94

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

Both legs:

Up$31.3245.3¢-$31.32

Down$25.3548.1¢+$27.38

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$40.35

Value

—

PnL

-$40.35

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$37.87

Value

—

PnL

-$29.95

Record

61%

93527-58804 (152331)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 13 top traders (38%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x108acd32...059b14

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793142300

Traders in this Market

bisonarctic

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$4.3K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Down — $2.2K

+$1.7K

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$71.1

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$982.97

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$204.62

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