Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,010

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Up7 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,955

Combined PnL+$397.36

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bisonarcticARB<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$11.4K	$12.2K	+$808.17	47% 22-25 (47)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.3¢	$7.2K	—	$-7.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.3¢	$4.2K	$12.2K	+$8.0K
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$2.3K	$4.0K	+$1.7K	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$1.3K	$4.0K	+$2.7K
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$991.42	—	-$991.42
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$79.75	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$814.54	—	-$814.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$572.98	$1.3K	+$734.8
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$50.07	52% 1958-1772 (3730)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$735.53	—	-$735.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$432.56	$1.2K	+$785.61
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 50.6¢	$882.36	—	-$882.36	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$80.21	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.8¢	$596.11	—	-$596.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$469.57	$1.1K	+$676.32
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$958.71	$1.1K	+$100.95	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.2¢	$437.46	—	-$437.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$521.25	$1.1K	+$538.41
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$31.58	56% 29188-23025 (52213)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$809.12	$745.79	-$63.33	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$415.95	—	-$415.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$393.18	$745.79	+$352.62
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$714.49	$775.11	+$60.63	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$398.07	—	-$398.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$316.41	$775.11	+$458.7
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$649.68	$632.3	-$17.39	64% 57400-32165 (89565)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.8¢	$372.75	—	-$372.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$276.93	$632.3	+$355.36
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$586.24	$632.68	+$46.44	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.7¢	$290.68	—	-$290.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$295.56	$632.68	+$337.12
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 46.8¢	$250.05	—	-$250.05	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 46.3¢	$419.39	$577.04	+$157.65	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$151.98	—	-$151.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.3¢	$267.41	$577.04	+$309.63
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$317.34	$307.36	-$7.53	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$150.52	—	-$150.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$164.32	$307.36	+$143.04
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$269.46	$341.99	+$72.53	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.6¢	$107.94	—	-$107.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.2¢	$161.52	$341.99	+$180.48
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 8¢	$23.97	—	-$23.97	59% 61872-42853 (104725)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$238.3	$281.26	+$42.96	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$107.61	—	-$107.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$130.69	$281.26	+$150.57
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 49.5¢	$200.83	$406	+$205.17	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 49¢	$147	—	-$147	48% 22972-25014 (47986)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 51.5¢	$107.5	—	-$107.5	46% 37757-44204 (81961)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$89	$200	+$111	51% 16906-16492 (33398)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$30	—	-$30
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$59	$200	+$141
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$125.84	$141.15	+$15.3	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.1¢	$56.32	—	-$56.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$69.52	$141.15	+$71.63
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Downavg 65¢	$136.06	—	-$92.03	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 53.3¢	$67.13	$90.79	+$23.66	52% 89030-83502 (172532)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.3¢	$48.38	$90.79	+$42.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$18.75	—	-$18.75

bisonarcticARB<$100

Down

Invested

$11,365.07

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$808.17

Record

47%

22-25 (47)

Both legs:

Down$7,187.7254.3¢$-7.2K

Up$4,177.3634.3¢+$8.0K

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$2,293.75

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

Both legs:

Up$1,302.3332.9¢+$2.7K

Down$991.4251.6¢-$991.42

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,387.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$79.75

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Down$814.5460.3¢-$814.54

Up$572.9843.8¢+$734.8

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,168.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$50.07

Record

52%

1958-1772 (3730)

Both legs:

Down$735.5353.7¢-$735.53

Up$432.5635.5¢+$785.61

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$882.36

Value

—

PnL

-$882.36

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,065.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$80.21

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

Both legs:

Down$596.1159.8¢-$596.11

Up$469.5741¢+$676.32

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$958.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$100.95

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

Both legs:

Down$437.4663.2¢-$437.46

Up$521.2549.2¢+$538.41

THG.

Invested

$3,126.42

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$31.58

Record

56%

29188-23025 (52213)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$809.12

Value

$745.79

PnL

-$63.33

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

Both legs:

Down$415.9554.9¢-$415.95

Up$393.1852.7¢+$352.62

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$714.49

Value

$775.11

PnL

+$60.63

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

Both legs:

Down$398.0754.5¢-$398.07

Up$316.4140.8¢+$458.7

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$649.68

Value

$632.3

PnL

-$17.39

Record

64%

57400-32165 (89565)

Both legs:

Down$372.7557.8¢-$372.75

Up$276.9343.8¢+$355.36

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$586.24

Value

$632.68

PnL

+$46.44

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

Both legs:

Down$290.6861.7¢-$290.68

Up$295.5646.7¢+$337.12

trdyugiolkwCTR

Down

Invested

$250.05

Value

—

PnL

-$250.05

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$419.39

Value

$577.04

PnL

+$157.65

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Down$151.9863.1¢-$151.98

Up$267.4146.3¢+$309.63

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$317.34

Value

$307.36

PnL

-$7.53

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

Both legs:

Down$150.5250.1¢-$150.57

Up$164.3253.5¢+$143.04

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$269.46

Value

$341.99

PnL

+$72.53

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

Both legs:

Down$107.9456.6¢-$107.94

Up$161.5247.2¢+$180.48

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.97

Value

—

PnL

-$23.97

Record

59%

61872-42853 (104725)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$238.3

Value

$281.26

PnL

+$42.96

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

Both legs:

Down$107.6155.6¢-$107.61

Up$130.6946.5¢+$150.57

Bonereaper

Invested

$200.83

Value

$406

PnL

+$205.17

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$147

Value

—

PnL

-$147

Record

48%

22972-25014 (47986)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$107.5

Value

—

PnL

-$107.5

Record

46%

37757-44204 (81961)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$89

Value

$200

PnL

+$111

Record

51%

16906-16492 (33398)

Both legs:

Down$3030¢-$30

Up$5929.5¢+$141

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$125.84

Value

$141.15

PnL

+$15.3

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

Both legs:

Down$56.3269.1¢-$56.32

Up$69.5249.3¢+$71.63

drfc4eybh7i8CTR

Down

Invested

$136.06

Value

—

PnL

-$92.03

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$67.13

Value

$90.79

PnL

+$23.66

Record

52%

89030-83502 (172532)

Both legs:

Up$48.3853.3¢+$42.41

Down$18.7564.2¢-$18.75

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd8168aab...c85546

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793142000

Traders in this Market

bisonarctic

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Up — $3.2K

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded