Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 33%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 20 top traders (35%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,796

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,599

Combined PnL-$650.61

Down — 35%Up — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bisonarcticARB<$100	Upavg 43¢	$9.5K	$10.0K	+$542.41	47% 22-25 (47)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$4.9K	—	$-4.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$4.6K	$10.0K	+$5.5K
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 34.7¢	$1.6K	$3.1K	+$1.5K	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.7¢	$1.1K	$3.1K	+$2.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$543.9	—	-$543.9
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$139.49	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.2¢	$1.0K	$1.9K	+$856.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$717.14	—	-$717.14
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$137.22	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.5¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$622.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.3¢	$485.26	—	-$485.26
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$28.46	93% 22338-1719 (24057)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$155.51	77% 9228-2692 (11920)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$625.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.4¢	$470.36	—	-$470.36
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$109.31	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$539.13	$1.2K	+$612.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$721.82	—	-$721.82
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$93.33	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$519.11	$1.2K	+$666.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$573.27	—	-$573.27
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$831.37	$1.0K	+$174.21	52% 1958-1772 (3730)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$509.45	$1.0K	+$496.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$321.92	—	-$321.92
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$121.86	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$699.52	$1.2K	+$493.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$371.62	—	-$371.62
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 48.4¢	$813.43	$554.98	-$258.45	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$569.3	—	-$569.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$244.12	$554.98	+$310.86
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$735.98	$662.89	-$73.09	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$428.57	$662.89	+$234.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$307.4	—	-$307.4
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$495.67	$506.57	+$10.9	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$227.78	$506.57	+$278.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.9¢	$267.89	—	-$267.89
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$586.64	$577.87	-$5.67	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$347.4	$577.87	+$230.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$236.24	—	-$236.24
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 30.8¢	$224.81	$399.99	+$175.18	51% 16906-16492 (33398)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.8¢	$123	$399.99	+$276.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.1¢	$101.81	—	-$101.81
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 42.7¢	$259.95	$426.46	+$166.51	64% 57400-32165 (89565)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 35.2¢	$242.29	$146	-$96.29	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.2¢	$180.98	—	-$180.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 42¢	$61.31	$146	+$84.69
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 33.8¢	$117.45	$178.84	+$61.39	46% 37757-44204 (81961)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$60.49	$178.84	+$118.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.3¢	$56.96	—	-$56.96
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Upavg 32.4¢	$183.39	—	-$183.39	63% 1748-1011 (2759)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 3.5¢	$14.82	$423.28	+$408.46	59% 61872-42853 (104725)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$90.73	$117.04	+$34.68	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$65.54	$117.04	+$51.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$20.2	—	-$16.81
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$93	—	-$93	48% 22972-25014 (47986)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 33.3¢	$67.18	—	-$67.18	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 89.2¢	$137.4	—	-$137.4	58% 59994-43795 (103789)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$70.71	—	-$33.63	65% 20975-11511 (32486)

bisonarcticARB<$100

Invested

$9,505.08

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$542.41

Record

47%

22-25 (47)

Both legs:

Up$4,918.8743¢$-4.9K

Down$4,586.2145.6¢+$5.5K

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,612.32

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

Both legs:

Down$1,068.4234.7¢+$2.0K

Up$543.940.8¢-$543.9

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,732.81

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$139.49

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

Both legs:

Down$1,015.6654.2¢+$856.63

Up$717.1440.4¢-$717.14

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,123.56

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$137.22

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Down$1,638.372.5¢+$622.48

Up$485.2653.3¢-$485.26

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,817.54

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$28.46

Record

93%

22338-1719 (24057)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,568.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$155.51

Record

77%

9228-2692 (11920)

Both legs:

Down$1,097.6963.7¢+$625.87

Up$470.3633.4¢-$470.36

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,260.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$109.31

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Down$539.1346.8¢+$612.5

Up$721.8251.1¢-$721.82

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$1,092.38

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$93.33

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

Both legs:

Down$519.1143.8¢+$666.6

Up$573.2742.7¢-$573.27

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Down

Invested

$831.37

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$174.21

Record

52%

1958-1772 (3730)

Both legs:

Down$509.4550.7¢+$496.13

Up$321.9228.1¢-$321.92

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,071.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$121.86

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

Both legs:

Down$699.5258.6¢+$493.48

Up$371.6248.7¢-$371.62

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$813.43

Value

$554.98

PnL

-$258.45

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

Both legs:

Up$569.348.4¢-$569.3

Down$244.1244¢+$310.86

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$735.98

Value

$662.89

PnL

-$73.09

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

Both legs:

Down$428.5764.7¢+$234.32

Up$307.449.1¢-$307.4

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$495.67

Value

$506.57

PnL

+$10.9

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

Both legs:

Down$227.7845¢+$278.8

Up$267.8956.9¢-$267.89

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$586.64

Value

$577.87

PnL

-$5.67

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

Both legs:

Down$347.460.1¢+$230.57

Up$236.2467¢-$236.24

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$224.81

Value

$399.99

PnL

+$175.18

Record

51%

16906-16492 (33398)

Both legs:

Down$12330.8¢+$276.99

Up$101.8126.1¢-$101.81

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$259.95

Value

$426.46

PnL

+$166.51

Record

64%

57400-32165 (89565)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$242.29

Value

$146

PnL

-$96.29

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

Both legs:

Up$180.9835.2¢-$180.98

Down$61.3142¢+$84.69

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$117.45

Value

$178.84

PnL

+$61.39

Record

46%

37757-44204 (81961)

Both legs:

Down$60.4933.8¢+$118.35

Up$56.9631.3¢-$56.96

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Invested

$183.39

Value

—

PnL

-$183.39

Record

63%

1748-1011 (2759)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$14.82

Value

$423.28

PnL

+$408.46

Record

59%

61872-42853 (104725)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.73

Value

$117.04

PnL

+$34.68

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

Both legs:

Down$65.5456¢+$51.5

Up$20.232.2¢-$16.81

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$93

Value

—

PnL

-$93

Record

48%

22972-25014 (47986)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$67.18

Value

—

PnL

-$67.18

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$137.4

Value

—

PnL

-$137.4

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$70.71

Value

—

PnL

-$33.63

Record

65%

20975-11511 (32486)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 20 top traders (35%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0d64b80c...0ae8b6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793141700

Traders in this Market

bisonarctic

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $2.8K

+$28.46

NIULAI4

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$155.51

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded