Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.4K

Combined PnL

$-22.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares30,184

Combined PnL$-23.3K

Up8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,165

Combined PnL+$798.21

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Downavg 78.8¢	$8.9K	—	$-8.9K	53% 308-272 (580)
RO royalanchor02CTR	Downavg 75.8¢	$5.8K	—	$-5.8K	52% 48-44 (92)
BO borderlocketCTR	Downavg 81.2¢	$5.6K	—	$-5.6K	56% 53-41 (94)
BI bisonarcticARB<$100	Upavg 17.8¢	$2.7K	$11.5K	+$8.8K	47% 22-25 (47)
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.8¢	$2.1K	$11.5K	+$9.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.1¢	$673.04	—	-$673.04
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$2.4K	$5.3K	+$2.9K	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.3¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.8¢	$939.35	$5.3K	+$4.3K
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Downavg 71.9¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K	52% 1958-1772 (3730)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 78.4¢	$1.2K	$2.3K	+$1.0K	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.4¢	$791.3	—	-$791.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 19¢	$428.4	$2.3K	+$1.8K
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$53.89	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.9¢	$701.8	—	-$701.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$409.37	$1.2K	+$755.69
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$1.0K	$977.32	-$28.5	64% 57400-32165 (89565)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.8¢	$785.34	—	-$785.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.6¢	$220.48	$977.32	+$756.84
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$773.15	$946.12	+$172.97	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$413.99	—	-$413.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$359.16	$946.12	+$586.96
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$644.33	$769.84	+$125.51	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$352.88	—	-$352.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$291.44	$769.84	+$478.4
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$478.77	$582.92	+$104.16	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$361.6	—	-$361.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$117.16	$582.92	+$465.76
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 49.7¢	$429.59	—	-$429.59	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 80.6¢	$475.33	—	-$475.33	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 55¢	$226.74	$231.61	+$4.87	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$123.8	—	-$123.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$102.94	$231.61	+$128.67
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$133.96	$237.75	+$103.79	46% 37757-44204 (81961)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.8¢	$102.58	—	-$102.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.2¢	$31.38	$237.75	+$206.38
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 23.2¢	$93.68	$367.45	+$273.77	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$69.65	$116.69	+$53.54	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.1¢	$43.25	—	-$43.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.8¢	$24.32	$116.69	+$96.79
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 14.9¢	$89.16	$299.43	+$299.97	48% 22972-25014 (47986)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$93.39	$101.63	+$8.24	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$68.67	$101.63	+$32.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.7¢	$24.72	—	-$24.72
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 59¢	$107.49	$182.28	+$74.79	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$73.43	$50.96	+$6.98	65% 20975-11511 (32486)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 20.9¢	$21.6	$103.5	+$81.9	58% 59994-43795 (103789)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 56.6¢	$14.15	—	-$14.15	50% 7589-7613 (15202)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$72.81	$72.92	+$22.52	61% 93527-58804 (152331)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Down

Invested

$8,914.96

Value

—

PnL

$-8.9K

Record

53%

308-272 (580)

royalanchor02CTR

Down

Invested

$5,751.92

Value

—

PnL

$-5.8K

Record

52%

48-44 (92)

borderlocketCTR

Down

Invested

$5,629.06

Value

—

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

56%

53-41 (94)

bisonarcticARB<$100

Invested

$2,730.29

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$8.8K

Record

47%

22-25 (47)

Both legs:

Up$2,057.2417.8¢+$9.5K

Down$673.0437.1¢-$673.04

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,384.37

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

Both legs:

Down$1,445.0380.3¢$-1.4K

Up$939.3517.8¢+$4.3K

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Down

Invested

$2,188.8

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

52%

1958-1772 (3730)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,219.69

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

Both legs:

Down$791.378.4¢-$791.3

Up$428.419¢+$1.8K

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,111.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$53.89

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

Both legs:

Down$701.853.9¢-$701.8

Up$409.3735.1¢+$755.69

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,005.82

Value

$977.32

PnL

-$28.5

Record

64%

57400-32165 (89565)

Both legs:

Down$785.3478.8¢-$785.34

Up$220.4822.6¢+$756.84

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$773.15

Value

$946.12

PnL

+$172.97

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Down$413.9951.5¢-$413.99

Up$359.1638¢+$586.96

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$644.33

Value

$769.84

PnL

+$125.51

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Down$352.8856.9¢-$352.88

Up$291.4437.9¢+$478.4

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$478.77

Value

$582.92

PnL

+$104.16

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

Both legs:

Down$361.664.3¢-$361.6

Up$117.1620.1¢+$465.76

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$429.59

Value

—

PnL

-$429.59

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$475.33

Value

—

PnL

-$475.33

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$226.74

Value

$231.61

PnL

+$4.87

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

Both legs:

Down$123.855¢-$123.8

Up$102.9444.4¢+$128.67

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$133.96

Value

$237.75

PnL

+$103.79

Record

46%

37757-44204 (81961)

Both legs:

Down$102.5870.8¢-$102.58

Up$31.3813.2¢+$206.38

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$93.68

Value

$367.45

PnL

+$273.77

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$69.65

Value

$116.69

PnL

+$53.54

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

Both legs:

Down$43.2572.1¢-$43.25

Up$24.3220.8¢+$96.79

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$89.16

Value

$299.43

PnL

+$299.97

Record

48%

22972-25014 (47986)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$93.39

Value

$101.63

PnL

+$8.24

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

Both legs:

Up$68.6767.6¢+$32.96

Down$24.7279.7¢-$24.72

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$107.49

Value

$182.28

PnL

+$74.79

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$73.43

Value

$50.96

PnL

+$6.98

Record

65%

20975-11511 (32486)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$21.6

Value

$103.5

PnL

+$81.9

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.15

Value

—

PnL

-$14.15

Record

50%

7589-7613 (15202)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$72.81

Value

$72.92

PnL

+$22.52

Record

61%

93527-58804 (152331)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc29737e3...7659d4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793141400

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $0

royalanchor02

Down — $0

borderlocket

Down — $0

bisonarctic

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$172.97

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