Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.2K

Combined PnL

$-10.0K

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares30,828

Combined PnL$-20.1K

Down9 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares16,089

Combined PnL+$10.2K

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalanchor02CTR	Upavg 54.8¢	$6.6K	—	$-6.6K	52% 48-44 (92)
BI bisonarctic	Downavg 36.5¢	$5.6K	$15.5K	+$9.8K	47% 22-25 (47)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Upavg 61.1¢	$8.8K	—	$-8.5K	53% 308-272 (580)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 35.4¢	$2.4K	$3.5K	+$1.1K	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.4¢	$1.2K	$3.5K	+$2.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 58¢	$2.1K	$963.73	$-1.1K	52% 1958-1772 (3730)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.5¢	$371.15	$963.73	+$592.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.7K
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$1.0K	$875.17	-$155.68	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.3¢	$379	$875.17	+$496.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$651.84	—	-$651.84
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 52.5¢	$906.32	—	-$906.32	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$838.94	$842.72	+$3.78	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$393.46	$842.72	+$449.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$445.48	—	-$445.48
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 55.4¢	$706.9	—	-$706.9	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 38.9¢	$694.79	—	-$694.79	64% 57400-32165 (89565)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 30.2¢	$482.26	$1.0K	+$534.76	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.2¢	$306.65	$1.0K	+$710.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$175.61	—	-$175.61
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$779.28	$474	-$305.28	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$275.54	$474	+$198.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.2¢	$503.75	—	-$503.75
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$457.76	$441.7	-$16.06	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$190.76	$441.7	+$250.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.8¢	$267	—	-$267
MayorMamdaniCTR	Upavg 63.8¢	$372.84	—	-$372.84	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$454.89	$350.12	-$104.76	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$164.49	$350.12	+$185.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$290.39	—	-$290.39
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 61.3¢	$319.94	$366.94	+$47	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$473.01	$348.56	-$122.9	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$178.83	$348.56	+$168.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.2¢	$291.61	—	-$291.61
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 70.3¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.0K	56% 53-41 (94)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 18¢	$129.4	—	-$129.4	46% 37757-44204 (81961)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$94.56	—	-$94.56	64% 39618-22602 (62220)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 63¢	$99.29	$100.29	+$1	56% 57437-44370 (101807)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$63.18	—	-$63.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$36.1	$100.29	+$64.19
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 47.6¢	$95.79	$71.71	-$24.08	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.7¢	$25.6	$71.71	+$46.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.6¢	$70.19	—	-$70.19
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 38.3¢	$83.54	$119.4	+$35.86	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.3¢	$45.74	$119.4	+$73.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$37.8	—	-$37.8
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$79.67	$98.54	+$18.87	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$52.67	$98.54	+$45.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.1¢	$27	—	-$27
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$35.85	—	-$35.85	58% 59994-43795 (103789)

royalanchor02CTR

Invested

$6,628

Value

—

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

52%

48-44 (92)

bisonarctic

Down

Invested

$5,647.42

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$9.8K

Record

47%

22-25 (47)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$8,825.99

Value

—

PnL

$-8.5K

Record

53%

308-272 (580)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,378.58

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

Both legs:

Down$1,221.8435.4¢+$2.2K

Up$1,156.7569.7¢$-1.2K

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$2,110.49

Value

$963.73

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

1958-1772 (3730)

Both legs:

Down$371.1538.5¢+$592.58

Up$1,482.5358¢$-1.7K

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$1,030.84

Value

$875.17

PnL

-$155.68

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

Both legs:

Down$37943.3¢+$496.17

Up$651.8447.8¢-$651.84

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$906.32

Value

—

PnL

-$906.32

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$838.94

Value

$842.72

PnL

+$3.78

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Down$393.4646.7¢+$449.26

Up$445.4848.5¢-$445.48

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$706.9

Value

—

PnL

-$706.9

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$694.79

Value

—

PnL

-$694.79

Record

64%

57400-32165 (89565)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$482.26

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$534.76

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

Both legs:

Down$306.6530.2¢+$710.37

Up$175.6148.8¢-$175.61

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$779.28

Value

$474

PnL

-$305.28

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Down$275.5458.1¢+$198.46

Up$503.7558.2¢-$503.75

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$457.76

Value

$441.7

PnL

-$16.06

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

Both legs:

Down$190.7643.2¢+$250.94

Up$26755.8¢-$267

MayorMamdaniCTR

Invested

$372.84

Value

—

PnL

-$372.84

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$454.89

Value

$350.12

PnL

-$104.76

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

Both legs:

Down$164.4947¢+$185.63

Up$290.3960.5¢-$290.39

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$319.94

Value

$366.94

PnL

+$47

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$473.01

Value

$348.56

PnL

-$122.9

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

Both legs:

Down$178.8351.3¢+$168.71

Up$291.6168.2¢-$291.61

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$2,404.66

Value

—

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

56%

53-41 (94)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$129.4

Value

—

PnL

-$129.4

Record

46%

37757-44204 (81961)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$94.56

Value

—

PnL

-$94.56

Record

64%

39618-22602 (62220)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$99.29

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

57437-44370 (101807)

Both legs:

Up$63.1863¢-$63.18

Down$36.136¢+$64.19

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$95.79

Value

$71.71

PnL

-$24.08

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

Both legs:

Down$25.635.7¢+$46.11

Up$70.1947.6¢-$70.19

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.54

Value

$119.4

PnL

+$35.86

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

Both legs:

Down$45.7438.3¢+$73.66

Up$37.863¢-$37.8

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$79.67

Value

$98.54

PnL

+$18.87

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

Both legs:

Down$52.6753.5¢+$45.87

Up$2767.1¢-$27

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$35.85

Value

—

PnL

-$35.85

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbddecdfc...6dc113

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793141100

Traders in this Market

royalanchor02

CTR

Up — $0

$-6.6K

bisonarctic

Down — $15.5K

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $0

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0