Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.4K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$37.9K

Total Shares37,928

Combined PnL+$7.4K

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,953

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Upavg 69.8¢	$7.3K	$10.4K	+$3.1K	53% 308-272 (580)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$6.38	59% 61872-42853 (104725)
RO royalanchor02	Upavg 63.4¢	$5.5K	$8.6K	+$3.2K	52% 48-44 (92)
BO borderlocket	Upavg 73.6¢	$4.0K	$5.5K	+$1.5K	56% 53-41 (94)
BI bisonarcticCTR	Downavg 18.8¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K	47% 22-25 (47)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$464.53	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$956.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.1¢	$492.28	—	-$492.28
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 79.6¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$309.2	64% 57400-32165 (89565)
machinelearned	Upavg 81¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$97.04	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 91.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$61.65	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 68¢	$783.45	$768.37	-$15.08	52% 1958-1772 (3730)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68¢	$522.2	$768.37	+$246.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 22¢	$261.25	—	-$261.25
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 75.8¢	$583.27	$544.99	-$38.28	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.8¢	$413.06	$544.99	+$131.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$170.21	—	-$170.21
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 20¢	$393.85	$197.23	-$196.62	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20¢	$295.24	—	-$295.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$98.62	$197.23	+$98.62
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$573.17	$533.56	-$39.61	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.5¢	$424.19	$533.56	+$109.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$148.98	—	-$148.98
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 77.4¢	$387.79	$408.99	+$24.85	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$311.36	$259.81	-$51.56	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.6¢	$193.91	$259.81	+$65.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$117.46	—	-$117.46
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 76.9¢	$242.1	$315	+$72.9	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 76.5¢	$252.42	$212	-$40.42	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$162.37	$111.51	-$50.86	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$81.55	$111.51	+$29.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.3¢	$80.82	—	-$80.82
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 32.4¢	$169.69	$89.99	-$79.7	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.4¢	$107	—	-$107
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$62.69	$89.99	+$27.3
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 80.7¢	$157.42	$128.49	-$28.92	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.7¢	$103.64	$128.49	+$24.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$53.77	—	-$53.77
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 82.9¢	$124.2	$121.63	-$2.57	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 23.5¢	$70.63	—	-$70.63	48% 22972-25014 (47986)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 65¢	$70.87	$93.36	+$22.49	56% 57437-44370 (101807)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 83¢	$63.11	$66	+$2.89	61% 93527-58804 (152331)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$53.71	$52.35	-$1.36	66% 124118-63886 (188004)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$7,253.11

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

53%

308-272 (580)

0x50f7

Invested

$6,371.63

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$6.38

Record

59%

61872-42853 (104725)

royalanchor02

Invested

$5,459.86

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

52%

48-44 (92)

borderlocket

Invested

$4,048.85

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

56%

53-41 (94)

bisonarcticCTR

Down

Invested

$2,232.98

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

47%

22-25 (47)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$2,366.87

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$464.53

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

Both legs:

Up$1,874.5966.2¢+$956.8

Down$492.2817.1¢-$492.28

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$3,044.11

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$309.2

Record

64%

57400-32165 (89565)

machinelearned

Invested

$1,691.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$97.04

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,426.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$61.65

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$783.45

Value

$768.37

PnL

-$15.08

Record

52%

1958-1772 (3730)

Both legs:

Up$522.268¢+$246.17

Down$261.2522¢-$261.25

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$583.27

Value

$544.99

PnL

-$38.28

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Up$413.0675.8¢+$131.93

Down$170.2132.8¢-$170.21

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$393.85

Value

$197.23

PnL

-$196.62

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

Both legs:

Down$295.2420¢-$295.24

Up$98.6250¢+$98.62

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$573.17

Value

$533.56

PnL

-$39.61

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

Both legs:

Up$424.1979.5¢+$109.37

Down$148.9831.7¢-$148.98

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$387.79

Value

$408.99

PnL

+$24.85

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$311.36

Value

$259.81

PnL

-$51.56

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

Both legs:

Up$193.9174.6¢+$65.9

Down$117.4632¢-$117.46

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$242.1

Value

$315

PnL

+$72.9

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$252.42

Value

$212

PnL

-$40.42

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$162.37

Value

$111.51

PnL

-$50.86

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

Both legs:

Up$81.5573.1¢+$29.96

Down$80.8228.3¢-$80.82

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$169.69

Value

$89.99

PnL

-$79.7

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

Both legs:

Down$10732.4¢-$107

Up$62.6969.7¢+$27.3

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$157.42

Value

$128.49

PnL

-$28.92

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

Both legs:

Up$103.6480.7¢+$24.85

Down$53.7732¢-$53.77

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$124.2

Value

$121.63

PnL

-$2.57

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.63

Value

—

PnL

-$70.63

Record

48%

22972-25014 (47986)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$70.87

Value

$93.36

PnL

+$22.49

Record

56%

57437-44370 (101807)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$63.11

Value

$66

PnL

+$2.89

Record

61%

93527-58804 (152331)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$53.71

Value

$52.35

PnL

-$1.36

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x2c9f222d...740ecb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793140800

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $10.4K

+$3.1K

0x50f7

Up — $6.4K

+$6.38

royalanchor02

Up — $8.6K

+$3.2K

borderlocket

Up — $5.5K

bisonarctic

Down — $0

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $2.7K

-$309.2

machinelearned

Up — $1.6K

-$97.04

wzbbb

Up — $1.4K

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded