Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$184.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,462

Combined PnL+$131.22

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares663

Combined PnL-$315.61

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	59% 61872-42853 (104725)
BO borderlocket	Downavg 99.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$2.94	56% 53-41 (94)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 99.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$2.01	81% 155-36 (191)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 89¢	$853.52	$931.55	+$78.04	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89¢	$829.28	$931.55	+$102.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.1¢	$24.23	—	-$24.23
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$851.62	$869	+$17.38	93% 22338-1719 (24057)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 96.8¢	$405.78	$382.67	-$16.96	64% 57400-32165 (89565)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 48.2¢	$231.33	—	-$231.33	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 99.1¢	$223.83	$222.5	-$1.34	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$102.56	$114.94	+$12.38	49% 4881-5050 (9931)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15¢	$18	—	-$18
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.6¢	$84.56	$114.94	+$30.38
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 93.7¢	$132.37	$138.44	+$6.07	60% 11842-7764 (19606)
└ Down leg	Downavg 93.7¢	$129.73	$138.44	+$8.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 3¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 91.8¢	$79.65	$63	-$16.65	55% 7052-5774 (12826)
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.3¢	$21.83	—	-$21.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.8¢	$57.82	$63	+$5.18
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 72¢	$115.06	$159.91	+$44.85	57% 11656-8669 (20325)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$71.99	$63.37	-$8.62	54% 15136-12685 (27821)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$25.5	—	-$25.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.4¢	$46.49	$63.37	+$16.88
pspspsps5	Downavg 98¢	$130.32	$132.69	+$2.37	46% 37757-44204 (81961)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$61.97	—	-$61.97	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
machinelearned	Downavg 80¢	$80	$100	+$20	55% 8297-6733 (15030)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 92¢	$69.26	$75.28	+$6.02	58% 59994-43795 (103789)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 83¢	$56.03	$67.48	+$11.45	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 50¢	$30	$60	+$30	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 93.2¢	$53.1	$56.97	+$3.87	61% 93527-58804 (152331)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 94.6¢	$45.11	$47.71	+$2.6	52% 89030-83502 (172532)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 18.3¢	$7.3	—	-$7.3	56% 13389-10698 (24087)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 91¢	$29.79	$32.74	+$2.95	56% 57437-44370 (101807)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$10.2	—	-$10.2	56% 12123-9356 (21479)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 99.2¢	$10.71	$10.8	+$0.09	65% 20975-11511 (32486)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

59%

61872-42853 (104725)

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$2,225

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$2.94

Record

56%

53-41 (94)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$2,006.42

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$2.01

Record

81%

155-36 (191)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$853.52

Value

$931.55

PnL

+$78.04

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Down$829.2889¢+$102.27

Up$24.238.1¢-$24.23

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$851.62

Value

$869

PnL

+$17.38

Record

93%

22338-1719 (24057)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$405.78

Value

$382.67

PnL

-$16.96

Record

64%

57400-32165 (89565)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$231.33

Value

—

PnL

-$231.33

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$223.83

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$1.34

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.56

Value

$114.94

PnL

+$12.38

Record

49%

4881-5050 (9931)

Both legs:

Up$1815¢-$18

Down$84.5673.6¢+$30.38

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.37

Value

$138.44

PnL

+$6.07

Record

60%

11842-7764 (19606)

Both legs:

Down$129.7393.7¢+$8.71

Up$2.643¢-$2.64

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$79.65

Value

$63

PnL

-$16.65

Record

55%

7052-5774 (12826)

Both legs:

Up$21.8322.3¢-$21.83

Down$57.8291.8¢+$5.18

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$115.06

Value

$159.91

PnL

+$44.85

Record

57%

11656-8669 (20325)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$71.99

Value

$63.37

PnL

-$8.62

Record

54%

15136-12685 (27821)

Both legs:

Up$25.528.3¢-$25.5

Down$46.4973.4¢+$16.88

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$130.32

Value

$132.69

PnL

+$2.37

Record

46%

37757-44204 (81961)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$61.97

Value

—

PnL

-$61.97

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$80

Value

$100

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

8297-6733 (15030)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$69.26

Value

$75.28

PnL

+$6.02

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$56.03

Value

$67.48

PnL

+$11.45

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$30

Value

$60

PnL

+$30

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$53.1

Value

$56.97

PnL

+$3.87

Record

61%

93527-58804 (152331)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$45.11

Value

$47.71

PnL

+$2.6

Record

52%

89030-83502 (172532)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

—

PnL

-$7.3

Record

56%

13389-10698 (24087)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$29.79

Value

$32.74

PnL

+$2.95

Record

56%

57437-44370 (101807)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

—

PnL

-$10.2

Record

56%

12123-9356 (21479)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$10.71

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$0.09

Record

65%

20975-11511 (32486)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7b6be7b1...957415

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793140500

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.0K

+$3.01

borderlocket

Down — $2.2K

+$2.94

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $2.0K

+$2.01

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$78.04

hoodquant

Down — $869

+$17.38

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $382.67

-$16.96

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$231.33

MayorMamdani

Down — $222.5

-$1.34

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$12.38

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$6.07

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