Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 79%
4 arb excluded
$1.7K
$181.67
Smart Money Signal
12 of 15 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 89.4¢ | $574.35 | $557.12 | -$17.23 | 57% 7421-5701 (13122) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 29.4¢ | $245.41 | $176.49 | -$68.92 | 54% 15125-12680 (27805) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.4¢ | $111.94 | $176.49 | +$64.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.4¢ | $133.48 | — | -$133.48 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 91.4¢ | $136.93 | $80.36 | -$56.57 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.2¢ | $63.47 | — | -$63.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 91.4¢ | $73.46 | $80.36 | +$6.9 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $141.73 | $276.99 | +$135.27 | 58% 37308-26476 (63784) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.6¢ | $7.55 | — | -$7.55 | 46% 37743-44179 (81922) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $95.41 | $99.99 | +$4.58 | 55% 8290-6724 (15014) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.5¢ | $78.49 | $99.99 | +$21.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.6¢ | $16.92 | — | -$16.92 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 76¢ | $85.83 | $107.34 | +$21.51 | 49% 4878-5036 (9914) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 32.4¢ | $98.52 | $75 | -$23.52 | 56% 13379-10692 (24071) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.7¢ | $44.06 | $75 | +$30.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.4¢ | $54.46 | — | -$54.46 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $82.2 | $121.33 | +$39.13 | 57% 11650-8658 (20308) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $56.87 | $65.68 | +$8.81 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $43.5 | $56.29 | +$12.79 | 56% 12114-9349 (21463) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $42.24 | $44 | +$1.76 | 60% 11833-7754 (19587) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.2¢ | $26.16 | — | -$26.16 | 55% 43758-36180 (79938) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $21.95 | $22.17 | +$0.22 | 93% 22322-1716 (24038) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $22.9 | $18.93 | +$8.73 | 65% 20906-11464 (32370) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $4.95 | $10 | +$5.05 | 66% 98395-50832 (149227) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $5 | +$1.5 | 55% 7037-5770 (12807) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $2.17 | — | -$2.17 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3611-2801 (6412) |
Invested
$574.35
Value
$557.12
PnL
-$17.23
Record
57%
7421-5701 (13122)
Invested
$245.41
Value
$176.49
PnL
-$68.92
Record
54%
15125-12680 (27805)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$136.93
Value
$80.36
PnL
-$56.57
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Both legs:
Invested
$141.73
Value
$276.99
PnL
+$135.27
Record
58%
37308-26476 (63784)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$7.55
Value
—
PnL
-$7.55
Record
46%
37743-44179 (81922)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$95.41
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$4.58
Record
55%
8290-6724 (15014)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.83
Value
$107.34
PnL
+$21.51
Record
49%
4878-5036 (9914)
Invested
$98.52
Value
$75
PnL
-$23.52
Record
56%
13379-10692 (24071)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.2
Value
$121.33
PnL
+$39.13
Record
57%
11650-8658 (20308)
Invested
$56.87
Value
$65.68
PnL
+$8.81
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$43.5
Value
$56.29
PnL
+$12.79
Record
56%
12114-9349 (21463)
Invested
$42.24
Value
$44
PnL
+$1.76
Record
60%
11833-7754 (19587)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$26.16
Value
—
PnL
-$26.16
Record
55%
43758-36180 (79938)
Invested
$21.95
Value
$22.17
PnL
+$0.22
Record
93%
22322-1716 (24038)
Invested
$22.9
Value
$18.93
PnL
+$8.73
Record
65%
20906-11464 (32370)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.05
Record
66%
98395-50832 (149227)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
55%
7037-5770 (12807)
Invested
$2.17
Value
—
PnL
-$2.17
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3611-2801 (6412)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $557.12
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $276.99
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Down — $107.34
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Down — $121.33
asdaefef
Down — $65.68