Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$0.42
Smart Money Signal
15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $512.06 | $522.51 | +$10.45 | 93% 22322-1716 (24038) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 78.6¢ | $381.56 | $363.64 | -$17.91 | 54% 15125-12680 (27805) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 10.4¢ | $297.12 | $184.1 | -$113.02 | 57% 7421-5701 (13122) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80¢ | $147.25 | $184.1 | +$36.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10.4¢ | $149.87 | — | -$149.87 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 82¢ | $236.78 | $251.52 | +$14.73 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 89.1¢ | $235.96 | $252.95 | +$17 | 55% 7037-5770 (12807) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 78.6¢ | $182.67 | $232.3 | +$49.64 | 57% 11650-8658 (20308) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $149.59 | $180 | +$30.41 | 49% 4878-5036 (9914) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 89.5¢ | $159.16 | $129.91 | -$25.56 | 60% 11833-7754 (19587) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 83.2¢ | $130.48 | $120 | -$10.48 | 56% 13379-10692 (24071) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $47.58 | — | -$47.58 | 58% 50689-36814 (87503) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83.7¢ | $42.82 | $51.19 | +$8.37 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $22.46 | $30 | +$7.54 | 56% 12114-9349 (21463) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $31.94 | $34.24 | +$5.18 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.8¢ | $37.12 | — | -$37.12 | 55% 8290-6724 (15014) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $19.1 | $28.5 | +$9.41 | 57% 10037-7526 (17563) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $14.3 | $18.18 | +$3.88 | 65% 123790-66202 (189992) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.8¢ | $16.58 | — | -$16.58 | 55% 43758-36180 (79938) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $12.74 | $15.08 | +$2.34 | 65% 3842-2071 (5913) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $10.3 | $12.56 | +$2.26 | 65% 20906-11464 (32370) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $6.41 | — | -$6.41 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
Invested
$512.06
Value
$522.51
PnL
+$10.45
Record
93%
22322-1716 (24038)
Invested
$381.56
Value
$363.64
PnL
-$17.91
Record
54%
15125-12680 (27805)
Invested
$297.12
Value
$184.1
PnL
-$113.02
Record
57%
7421-5701 (13122)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$236.78
Value
$251.52
PnL
+$14.73
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Invested
$235.96
Value
$252.95
PnL
+$17
Record
55%
7037-5770 (12807)
Invested
$182.67
Value
$232.3
PnL
+$49.64
Record
57%
11650-8658 (20308)
Invested
$149.59
Value
$180
PnL
+$30.41
Record
49%
4878-5036 (9914)
Invested
$159.16
Value
$129.91
PnL
-$25.56
Record
60%
11833-7754 (19587)
Invested
$130.48
Value
$120
PnL
-$10.48
Record
56%
13379-10692 (24071)
Invested
$47.58
Value
—
PnL
-$47.58
Record
58%
50689-36814 (87503)
Invested
$42.82
Value
$51.19
PnL
+$8.37
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$22.46
Value
$30
PnL
+$7.54
Record
56%
12114-9349 (21463)
Invested
$31.94
Value
$34.24
PnL
+$5.18
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$37.12
Value
—
PnL
-$37.12
Record
55%
8290-6724 (15014)
Invested
$19.1
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$9.41
Record
57%
10037-7526 (17563)
Invested
$14.3
Value
$18.18
PnL
+$3.88
Record
65%
123790-66202 (189992)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$16.58
Value
—
PnL
-$16.58
Record
55%
43758-36180 (79938)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$12.74
Value
$15.08
PnL
+$2.34
Record
65%
3842-2071 (5913)
Invested
$10.3
Value
$12.56
PnL
+$2.26
Record
65%
20906-11464 (32370)
Invested
$6.41
Value
—
PnL
-$6.41
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $522.51
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $363.64
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $251.52
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $252.95
EZTRADENL2
Down — $232.3
ply-pm0
Down — $180
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $129.91
GoodFallen
Down — $120
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0