Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 82%
3 arb excluded
$15.2K
$444.6
Smart Money Signal
14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | -$4.59 | 59% 61860-42827 (104687) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 92.4¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$126.96 | 57% 7421-5701 (13122) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$16.58 | 93% 22322-1716 (24038) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 77.7¢ | $232.53 | $217.9 | +$14.47 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 58.3¢ | $235.28 | $271.96 | +$36.68 | 54% 15125-12680 (27805) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.3¢ | $158.48 | $271.96 | +$113.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55¢ | $76.79 | — | -$76.79 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 46.6¢ | $146.15 | $313.7 | +$167.55 | 58% 37308-26476 (63784) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 74¢ | $158.81 | $149.27 | -$9.54 | 55% 7037-5770 (12807) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $124.34 | $143.82 | +$19.48 | 49% 4878-5036 (9914) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $132.71 | $190 | +$57.29 | 56% 12114-9349 (21463) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $96 | $190 | +$94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $36.71 | — | -$36.71 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 51¢ | $115.64 | $205.63 | +$89.99 | 55% 8290-6724 (15014) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 54.1¢ | $115.06 | $171.42 | +$56.35 | 56% 13379-10692 (24071) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.1¢ | $92.76 | $171.42 | +$78.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.8¢ | $22.3 | — | -$22.3 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $47.85 | $66 | +$18.15 | 57% 11650-8658 (20308) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 87.3¢ | $25.99 | $29.77 | +$3.78 | 65% 20906-11464 (32370) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5.8¢ | $16.1 | — | -$16.1 | 46% 37743-44179 (81922) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $31.32 | $45.01 | +$13.69 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $17.34 | $21.27 | +$3.93 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $3.91 | $4.83 | +$0.92 | 60% 11833-7754 (19587) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $8.95 | $15 | +$6.05 | 65% 123790-66202 (189992) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $5.5 | — | -$5.5 | 66% 98395-50832 (149227) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
Invested
$9,010.61
Value
$9.0K
PnL
-$4.59
Record
59%
61860-42827 (104687)
Invested
$2,518.04
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$126.96
Record
57%
7421-5701 (13122)
Invested
$1,641.41
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$16.58
Record
93%
22322-1716 (24038)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$232.53
Value
$217.9
PnL
+$14.47
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Invested
$235.28
Value
$271.96
PnL
+$36.68
Record
54%
15125-12680 (27805)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.15
Value
$313.7
PnL
+$167.55
Record
58%
37308-26476 (63784)
Invested
$158.81
Value
$149.27
PnL
-$9.54
Record
55%
7037-5770 (12807)
Invested
$124.34
Value
$143.82
PnL
+$19.48
Record
49%
4878-5036 (9914)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$132.71
Value
$190
PnL
+$57.29
Record
56%
12114-9349 (21463)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$115.64
Value
$205.63
PnL
+$89.99
Record
55%
8290-6724 (15014)
Invested
$115.06
Value
$171.42
PnL
+$56.35
Record
56%
13379-10692 (24071)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.85
Value
$66
PnL
+$18.15
Record
57%
11650-8658 (20308)
Invested
$25.99
Value
$29.77
PnL
+$3.78
Record
65%
20906-11464 (32370)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$16.1
Value
—
PnL
-$16.1
Record
46%
37743-44179 (81922)
Invested
$31.32
Value
$45.01
PnL
+$13.69
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
Invested
$17.34
Value
$21.27
PnL
+$3.93
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
Invested
$3.91
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$0.92
Record
60%
11833-7754 (19587)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.05
Record
65%
123790-66202 (189992)
Invested
$5.5
Value
—
PnL
-$5.5
Record
66%
98395-50832 (149227)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $9.0K
wzbbb
Up — $2.6K
hoodquant
Up — $1.7K
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $217.9
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $313.7
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $149.27
ply-pm0
Up — $143.82
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Up — $205.63