Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 65%
2 arb excluded
$11.9K
-$17.21
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$8.17 | 59% 61860-42827 (104687) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$1.19 | 93% 22322-1716 (24038) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 73.4¢ | $415.61 | $403.7 | -$11.91 | 54% 15125-12680 (27805) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 67.9¢ | $238.85 | $234.71 | -$4.13 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $176.1 | $257.32 | +$81.22 | 57% 11650-8658 (20308) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $142.99 | $155.71 | +$12.72 | 49% 4878-5036 (9914) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $128.92 | $111.33 | -$17.59 | 56% 13379-10692 (24071) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.7¢ | $79.82 | $111.33 | +$31.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.3¢ | $49.1 | — | -$49.1 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 47¢ | $111.16 | $138.26 | +$27.11 | 58% 37308-26476 (63784) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 68¢ | $88.54 | $109.3 | +$20.77 | 55% 8290-6724 (15014) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 79.3¢ | $108.17 | $114.15 | +$7.23 | 60% 11833-7754 (19587) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $78.38 | $85.6 | +$7.23 | 55% 7037-5770 (12807) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $69.94 | — | -$69.94 | 66% 98395-50832 (149227) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.3¢ | $70.74 | — | -$70.74 | 57% 7421-5701 (13122) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 18.9¢ | $53.5 | $29.29 | -$24.21 | 56% 12114-9349 (21463) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.9¢ | $30.2 | — | -$30.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.5¢ | $23.3 | $29.29 | +$5.99 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5.6¢ | $18.51 | — | -$18.51 | 46% 37743-44179 (81922) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $13.79 | $17.3 | +$3.51 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.7¢ | $3.8 | — | -$3.8 | 55% 43758-36180 (79938) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.2¢ | $6.12 | — | -$6.12 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
Invested
$8,999.84
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$8.17
Record
59%
61860-42827 (104687)
Invested
$1,184.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$1.19
Record
93%
22322-1716 (24038)
Invested
$415.61
Value
$403.7
PnL
-$11.91
Record
54%
15125-12680 (27805)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$238.85
Value
$234.71
PnL
-$4.13
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Invested
$176.1
Value
$257.32
PnL
+$81.22
Record
57%
11650-8658 (20308)
Invested
$142.99
Value
$155.71
PnL
+$12.72
Record
49%
4878-5036 (9914)
Invested
$128.92
Value
$111.33
PnL
-$17.59
Record
56%
13379-10692 (24071)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.16
Value
$138.26
PnL
+$27.11
Record
58%
37308-26476 (63784)
machinelearnedInvested
$88.54
Value
$109.3
PnL
+$20.77
Record
55%
8290-6724 (15014)
Invested
$108.17
Value
$114.15
PnL
+$7.23
Record
60%
11833-7754 (19587)
Invested
$78.38
Value
$85.6
PnL
+$7.23
Record
55%
7037-5770 (12807)
Invested
$69.94
Value
—
PnL
-$69.94
Record
66%
98395-50832 (149227)
Invested
$70.74
Value
—
PnL
-$70.74
Record
57%
7421-5701 (13122)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$53.5
Value
$29.29
PnL
-$24.21
Record
56%
12114-9349 (21463)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$18.51
Value
—
PnL
-$18.51
Record
46%
37743-44179 (81922)
Invested
$13.79
Value
$17.3
PnL
+$3.51
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.8
Record
55%
43758-36180 (79938)
Invested
$6.12
Value
—
PnL
-$6.12
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $9.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $403.7
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $234.71
EZTRADENL2
Up — $257.32
ply-pm0
Up — $155.71
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $138.26
machinelearned
Up — $109.3
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $114.15