Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 64%
3 arb excluded
$2.9K
$144.5
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $653.15 | $645.32 | -$7.83 | 54% 15125-12680 (27805) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $318.02 | $645.32 | +$327.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39¢ | $335.13 | — | -$335.13 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 76.6¢ | $419.24 | $443.48 | +$24.25 | 57% 7421-5701 (13122) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 60.6¢ | $385.1 | $418.78 | +$33.69 | 56% 13379-10692 (24071) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $417.03 | $409.48 | -$7.54 | 57% 11650-8658 (20308) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.1¢ | $67.75 | — | -$67.75 | 59% 61860-42827 (104687) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $217.8 | $149.56 | -$68.24 | 55% 7037-5770 (12807) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.4¢ | $108.33 | $149.56 | +$41.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.4¢ | $109.47 | — | -$109.47 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 59.6¢ | $168.97 | $172.7 | +$3.73 | 60% 11833-7754 (19587) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $147.62 | $153.88 | +$6.26 | 49% 4878-5036 (9914) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 35.8¢ | $81.18 | $227 | +$145.82 | 66% 98395-50832 (149227) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $85.73 | $65.07 | +$8.44 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 9¢ | $24.94 | — | -$24.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.9¢ | $41.61 | $65.07 | +$33.38 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 67.8¢ | $96.6 | $113.65 | +$17.05 | 56% 12114-9349 (21463) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 35.7¢ | $36.63 | $59.76 | +$23.13 | 55% 8290-6724 (15014) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.1¢ | $11.09 | — | -$11.09 | 46% 37743-44179 (81922) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90.8¢ | $39.59 | $41 | +$1.41 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.7¢ | $10.67 | — | -$10.67 | 55% 43758-36180 (79938) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.6¢ | $10.67 | — | -$10.67 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.1¢ | $3.11 | — | -$3.11 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
Invested
$653.15
Value
$645.32
PnL
-$7.83
Record
54%
15125-12680 (27805)
Both legs:
Invested
$419.24
Value
$443.48
PnL
+$24.25
Record
57%
7421-5701 (13122)
Invested
$385.1
Value
$418.78
PnL
+$33.69
Record
56%
13379-10692 (24071)
Invested
$417.03
Value
$409.48
PnL
-$7.54
Record
57%
11650-8658 (20308)
Invested
$67.75
Value
—
PnL
-$67.75
Record
59%
61860-42827 (104687)
Invested
$217.8
Value
$149.56
PnL
-$68.24
Record
55%
7037-5770 (12807)
Both legs:
Invested
$168.97
Value
$172.7
PnL
+$3.73
Record
60%
11833-7754 (19587)
Invested
$147.62
Value
$153.88
PnL
+$6.26
Record
49%
4878-5036 (9914)
Invested
$81.18
Value
$227
PnL
+$145.82
Record
66%
98395-50832 (149227)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$85.73
Value
$65.07
PnL
+$8.44
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$96.6
Value
$113.65
PnL
+$17.05
Record
56%
12114-9349 (21463)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$36.63
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$23.13
Record
55%
8290-6724 (15014)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$11.09
Value
—
PnL
-$11.09
Record
46%
37743-44179 (81922)
Invested
$39.59
Value
$41
PnL
+$1.41
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$10.67
Value
—
PnL
-$10.67
Record
55%
43758-36180 (79938)
Invested
$10.67
Value
—
PnL
-$10.67
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
Invested
$3.11
Value
—
PnL
-$3.11
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Down — $443.48
GoodFallen
Down — $418.78
EZTRADENL2
Down — $409.48
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $172.7
ply-pm0
Down — $153.88
Bonereaper
Down — $227
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded