Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

15 of 22 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,474

Combined PnL+$667.43

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,868

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 73¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$109.77	57% 7421-5701 (13122)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$182.94	64% 57374-32152 (89526)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.9¢	$658.63	—	-$658.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$859.41	$1.7K	+$841.58
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 51¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	54% 15125-12680 (27805)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 54.4¢	$901.98	$908.64	+$6.66	56% 13379-10692 (24071)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$733.13	$699.16	-$33.96	57% 11650-8658 (20308)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$261.2	—	-$261.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.5¢	$471.93	$699.16	+$227.23
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 49.5¢	$497.09	$514.54	+$17.46	49% 4878-5036 (9914)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 48.2¢	$427.29	$474.38	+$47.08	56% 12114-9349 (21463)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 66.1¢	$370.98	$364.53	-$6.46	60% 11833-7754 (19587)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 67.2¢	$313.66	$302.6	-$11.06	55% 7037-5770 (12807)
NIULAI4	Upavg 92.1¢	$237.69	$254.06	+$16.38	77% 9225-2688 (11913)
machinelearned	Upavg 49.3¢	$186.33	$246.12	+$59.79	55% 8290-6724 (15014)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 48.8¢	$239.12	$488.85	+$249.72	58% 37308-26476 (63784)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$139.99	$119.04	-$20.96	59% 21624-14921 (36545)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$74.49	—	-$74.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$65.5	$119.04	+$53.53
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 64¢	$191.98	$299.97	+$107.99	48% 22962-24993 (47955)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 99¢	$101.97	$103	+$1.03	55% 43758-36180 (79938)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 65.4¢	$107.38	$86.47	-$20.91	66% 124076-63863 (187939)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$50.85	—	-$50.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.4¢	$56.53	$86.47	+$29.94
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$71.28	$72	+$0.72	93% 22322-1716 (24038)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$70.96	—	-$70.96	66% 98395-50832 (149227)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$63.81	—	-$58.41	65% 123790-66202 (189992)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 31.7¢	$25.23	—	-$25.23	52% 88990-83472 (172462)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 75.7¢	$114.14	$150.74	+$36.6	56% 57417-44359 (101776)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 38.1¢	$27.36	—	-$21.24	65% 20906-11464 (32370)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 29.4¢	$19.16	—	+$4.94	61% 93493-58782 (152275)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$53.68	$73.44	+$19.76	57% 10037-7526 (17563)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 60¢	$18	$30	+$12	58% 59979-43785 (103764)

wzbbb

Invested

$2,081.67

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$109.77

Record

57%

7421-5701 (13122)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$1,518.04

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$182.94

Record

64%

57374-32152 (89526)

Both legs:

Down$658.6336.9¢-$658.63

Up$859.4150.5¢+$841.58

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,496.51

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

15125-12680 (27805)

GoodFallen

Invested

$901.98

Value

$908.64

PnL

+$6.66

Record

56%

13379-10692 (24071)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$733.13

Value

$699.16

PnL

-$33.96

Record

57%

11650-8658 (20308)

Both legs:

Down$261.253.4¢-$261.2

Up$471.9367.5¢+$227.23

ply-pm0

Invested

$497.09

Value

$514.54

PnL

+$17.46

Record

49%

4878-5036 (9914)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$427.29

Value

$474.38

PnL

+$47.08

Record

56%

12114-9349 (21463)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$370.98

Value

$364.53

PnL

-$6.46

Record

60%

11833-7754 (19587)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$313.66

Value

$302.6

PnL

-$11.06

Record

55%

7037-5770 (12807)

NIULAI4

Invested

$237.69

Value

$254.06

PnL

+$16.38

Record

77%

9225-2688 (11913)

machinelearned

Invested

$186.33

Value

$246.12

PnL

+$59.79

Record

55%

8290-6724 (15014)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$239.12

Value

$488.85

PnL

+$249.72

Record

58%

37308-26476 (63784)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$139.99

Value

$119.04

PnL

-$20.96

Record

59%

21624-14921 (36545)

Both legs:

Down$74.4947.7¢-$74.49

Up$65.555¢+$53.53

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$191.98

Value

$299.97

PnL

+$107.99

Record

48%

22962-24993 (47955)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$101.97

Value

$103

PnL

+$1.03

Record

55%

43758-36180 (79938)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$107.38

Value

$86.47

PnL

-$20.91

Record

66%

124076-63863 (187939)

Both legs:

Down$50.8554.4¢-$50.85

Up$56.5365.4¢+$29.94

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$71.28

Value

$72

PnL

+$0.72

Record

93%

22322-1716 (24038)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.96

Value

—

PnL

-$70.96

Record

66%

98395-50832 (149227)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.81

Value

—

PnL

-$58.41

Record

65%

123790-66202 (189992)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.23

Value

—

PnL

-$25.23

Record

52%

88990-83472 (172462)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$114.14

Value

$150.74

PnL

+$36.6

Record

56%

57417-44359 (101776)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.36

Value

—

PnL

-$21.24

Record

65%

20906-11464 (32370)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.16

Value

—

PnL

+$4.94

Record

61%

93493-58782 (152275)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$53.68

Value

$73.44

PnL

+$19.76

Record

57%

10037-7526 (17563)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$30

PnL

+$12

Record

58%

59979-43785 (103764)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 22 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa1125734...a5c135

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793138400

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $2.2K

+$109.77

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$182.94

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.5K

GoodFallen

Up — $908.64

+$6.66

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$33.96

ply-pm0

Up — $514.54

+$17.46

FairValueMachine

Up — $474.38

+$47.08

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $364.53

-$6.46

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $302.6

-$11.06

NIULAI4

Up — $254.06

+$16.38

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