Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 92%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 26 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,301

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares322

Combined PnL-$282.46

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$112.96	56% 3610-2801 (6411)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 85.1¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$141.39	57% 7404-5695 (13099)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 70.3¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$424.38	57% 69130-52632 (121762)
MO mo-money	Downavg 77.2¢	$947.94	$1.2K	+$248.91	55% 49901-40526 (90427)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57.6¢	$731.09	$789.28	+$58.19	54% 15115-12673 (27788)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$1.4K	$494.86	+$14.21	54% 14298-12090 (26388)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$286.52	$494.86	+$387.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.8¢	$413.62	—	-$373
machinelearned	Downavg 74.5¢	$516.25	$464.39	-$51.87	55% 8281-6716 (14997)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 60.7¢	$293.54	$342.9	+$49.35	49% 4865-5032 (9897)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 63.1¢	$296.77	$315.83	+$19.06	56% 13372-10682 (24054)
BO bosona	Downavg 70.7¢	$190.78	$269.68	+$78.9	56% 49079-39304 (88383)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 56.4¢	$180.93	$250.77	+$69.84	55% 7029-5762 (12791)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 55¢	$218.18	$205.11	-$13.07	56% 12105-9343 (21448)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.5¢	$270.73	$194.19	-$76.53	60% 11824-7746 (19570)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 66.7¢	$137.99	$180	+$42.01	54% 10181-8638 (18819)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.7¢	$120	$180	+$60
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.2¢	$17.99	—	-$17.99
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 48.5¢	$261	—	-$261	57% 11641-8651 (20292)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 48.1¢	$82.66	$172	+$89.34	66% 98380-50821 (149201)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 82¢	$69.69	$85	+$15.31	55% 43735-36149 (79884)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$53.22	$73.29	+$20.07	66% 124038-63844 (187882)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 79¢	$42.69	$47.2	+$4.51	46% 37728-44154 (81882)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$64.86	$93.42	+$28.56	62% 43499-26422 (69921)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$32.05	$46.75	+$14.7	61% 93462-58762 (152224)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$18.99	$37.44	+$18.45	58% 37239-26466 (63705)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$23.39	$37.25	+$13.86	64% 39601-22590 (62191)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 73¢	$12.13	$16.62	+$4.49	65% 3833-2066 (5899)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 61¢	$8.7	$10.99	+$2.29	52% 88964-83442 (172406)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,593.79

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$112.96

Record

56%

3610-2801 (6411)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,469.96

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$141.39

Record

57%

7404-5695 (13099)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,002.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$424.38

Record

57%

69130-52632 (121762)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$947.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$248.91

Record

55%

49901-40526 (90427)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$731.09

Value

$789.28

PnL

+$58.19

Record

54%

15115-12673 (27788)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$1,352.61

Value

$494.86

PnL

+$14.21

Record

54%

14298-12090 (26388)

Both legs:

Down$286.5257.9¢+$387.21

Up$413.6245.8¢-$373

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$516.25

Value

$464.39

PnL

-$51.87

Record

55%

8281-6716 (14997)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$293.54

Value

$342.9

PnL

+$49.35

Record

49%

4865-5032 (9897)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$296.77

Value

$315.83

PnL

+$19.06

Record

56%

13372-10682 (24054)

bosona

Down

Invested

$190.78

Value

$269.68

PnL

+$78.9

Record

56%

49079-39304 (88383)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$180.93

Value

$250.77

PnL

+$69.84

Record

55%

7029-5762 (12791)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$218.18

Value

$205.11

PnL

-$13.07

Record

56%

12105-9343 (21448)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$270.73

Value

$194.19

PnL

-$76.53

Record

60%

11824-7746 (19570)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$137.99

Value

$180

PnL

+$42.01

Record

54%

10181-8638 (18819)

Both legs:

Down$12066.7¢+$60

Up$17.995.2¢-$17.99

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$261

Value

—

PnL

-$261

Record

57%

11641-8651 (20292)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$82.66

Value

$172

PnL

+$89.34

Record

66%

98380-50821 (149201)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$69.69

Value

$85

PnL

+$15.31

Record

55%

43735-36149 (79884)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$53.22

Value

$73.29

PnL

+$20.07

Record

66%

124038-63844 (187882)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$42.69

Value

$47.2

PnL

+$4.51

Record

46%

37728-44154 (81882)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$64.86

Value

$93.42

PnL

+$28.56

Record

62%

43499-26422 (69921)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$32.05

Value

$46.75

PnL

+$14.7

Record

61%

93462-58762 (152224)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$18.99

Value

$37.44

PnL

+$18.45

Record

58%

37239-26466 (63705)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$23.39

Value

$37.25

PnL

+$13.86

Record

64%

39601-22590 (62191)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$12.13

Value

$16.62

PnL

+$4.49

Record

65%

3833-2066 (5899)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$8.7

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$2.29

Record

52%

88964-83442 (172406)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 26 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x09f19b8f...9fa1b1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793133000

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.6K

+$112.96

wzbbb

Down — $1.6K

+$141.39

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.4K

+$424.38

mo-money

Down — $1.2K

+$248.91

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $789.28

+$58.19

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$14.21

machinelearned

Down — $464.39

-$51.87

ply-pm0

Down — $342.9

+$49.35

GoodFallen

Down — $315.83

+$19.06

bosona

Down — $269.68

+$78.9

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