Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 73%
2 arb excluded
$3.7K
$66.65
Smart Money Signal
16 of 23 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.99 | 56% 29174-23025 (52199) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 74.7¢ | $654.9 | $876.13 | +$221.23 | 57% 69092-52584 (121676) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 91.6¢ | $250.68 | $239.11 | -$11.57 | 49% 4856-5023 (9879) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 75.9¢ | $230.96 | $201 | -$29.97 | 57% 7389-5686 (13075) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.9¢ | $152.48 | $201 | +$48.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 16.2¢ | $78.48 | — | -$78.48 | |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 98.5¢ | $238.57 | $229.27 | -$9.3 | 55% 43713-36124 (79837) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 54.8¢ | $199.1 | $215.5 | +$16.4 | 54% 15086-12638 (27724) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.8¢ | $118.13 | $215.5 | +$97.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.8¢ | $80.98 | — | -$80.98 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.1¢ | $130.42 | $168.79 | +$38.37 | 56% 13362-10674 (24036) |
ST std0 | Upavg 98.4¢ | $147.32 | $134.99 | -$12.33 | 67% 53055-26486 (79541) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 49.2¢ | $132.7 | — | -$132.7 | 57% 11636-8639 (20275) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $118.8 | $120 | +$1.2 | 93% 22269-1715 (23984) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 90.5¢ | $328.96 | $84.11 | -$7.85 | 64% 57344-32114 (89458) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 95.6¢ | $88.91 | $93 | +$4.09 | 60% 11816-7738 (19554) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $83.52 | $50 | -$33.52 | 55% 8270-6709 (14979) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 90.2¢ | $50.8 | $56.34 | +$5.54 | 61% 93423-58740 (152163) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $33.88 | $44 | +$10.12 | 55% 7021-5754 (12775) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.1¢ | $34.05 | — | -$34.05 | 56% 12092-9338 (21430) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.6¢ | $8.23 | — | -$8.23 | 55% 49869-40477 (90346) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 48% 22949-24961 (47910) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $30 | $60.26 | +$30.26 | 65% 123715-66149 (189864) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $23.16 | $35.91 | +$12.75 | 66% 123993-63821 (187814) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $11.25 | — | -$11.25 | 62% 43491-26415 (69906) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $10.01 | $6.86 | -$3.15 | 46% 37715-44132 (81847) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.5¢ | $2.44 | — | -$2.44 | 52% 88930-83410 (172340) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $3.51 | $5 | +$1.49 | 66% 98373-50815 (149188) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3610-2800 (6410) |
Invested
$1,088.31
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.99
Record
56%
29174-23025 (52199)
Invested
$654.9
Value
$876.13
PnL
+$221.23
Record
57%
69092-52584 (121676)
Invested
$250.68
Value
$239.11
PnL
-$11.57
Record
49%
4856-5023 (9879)
Invested
$230.96
Value
$201
PnL
-$29.97
Record
57%
7389-5686 (13075)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$238.57
Value
$229.27
PnL
-$9.3
Record
55%
43713-36124 (79837)
Invested
$199.1
Value
$215.5
PnL
+$16.4
Record
54%
15086-12638 (27724)
Both legs:
Invested
$130.42
Value
$168.79
PnL
+$38.37
Record
56%
13362-10674 (24036)
Invested
$147.32
Value
$134.99
PnL
-$12.33
Record
67%
53055-26486 (79541)
Invested
$132.7
Value
—
PnL
-$132.7
Record
57%
11636-8639 (20275)
Invested
$118.8
Value
$120
PnL
+$1.2
Record
93%
22269-1715 (23984)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$328.96
Value
$84.11
PnL
-$7.85
Record
64%
57344-32114 (89458)
Invested
$88.91
Value
$93
PnL
+$4.09
Record
60%
11816-7738 (19554)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$83.52
Value
$50
PnL
-$33.52
Record
55%
8270-6709 (14979)
Invested
$50.8
Value
$56.34
PnL
+$5.54
Record
61%
93423-58740 (152163)
Invested
$33.88
Value
$44
PnL
+$10.12
Record
55%
7021-5754 (12775)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$34.05
Value
—
PnL
-$34.05
Record
56%
12092-9338 (21430)
Invested
$8.23
Value
—
PnL
-$8.23
Record
55%
49869-40477 (90346)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
48%
22949-24961 (47910)
Invested
$30
Value
$60.26
PnL
+$30.26
Record
65%
123715-66149 (189864)
Invested
$23.16
Value
$35.91
PnL
+$12.75
Record
66%
123993-63821 (187814)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$11.25
Value
—
PnL
-$11.25
Record
62%
43491-26415 (69906)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$10.01
Value
$6.86
PnL
-$3.15
Record
46%
37715-44132 (81847)
Invested
$2.44
Value
—
PnL
-$2.44
Record
52%
88930-83410 (172340)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.49
Record
66%
98373-50815 (149188)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3610-2800 (6410)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Up — $1.1K
uninformedfloww
Up — $876.13
ply-pm0
Up — $239.11
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Up — $229.27
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
Up — $168.79
std0
Up — $134.99
EZTRADENL2
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $120