Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$120.51

Smart Money Signal

21 of 29 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,229

Combined PnL-$36.43

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares751

Combined PnL-$84.07

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$22.55	59% 61841-42785 (104626)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$387.09	$401.55	+$14.46	54% 15086-12638 (27724)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.1¢	$285.51	$401.55	+$116.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.1¢	$101.58	—	-$101.58
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 77.2¢	$425.7	$285.72	-$139.98	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 73.5¢	$271.95	$291.19	+$19.24	56% 13362-10674 (24036)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 88.7¢	$311.35	$282.52	-$28.83	49% 4856-5023 (9879)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 83.5¢	$224.21	$231.12	+$6.9	64% 57344-32114 (89458)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 89.3¢	$186.11	$165.62	-$20.49	55% 7021-5754 (12775)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$146.69	$138	-$8.69	56% 12092-9338 (21430)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$98.01	$138	+$39.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.2¢	$48.68	—	-$48.68
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 77.4¢	$126.26	$152.82	+$26.57	60% 11816-7738 (19554)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 39.7¢	$168.4	$96.69	-$71.71	57% 11636-8639 (20275)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.1¢	$73.55	$96.69	+$23.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.7¢	$94.85	—	-$94.85
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 74¢	$76.54	$100.39	+$23.85	56% 57395-44340 (101735)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 51¢	$57.71	$113.16	+$55.45	66% 98373-50815 (149188)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 84.5¢	$79.98	$50	-$29.98	55% 8270-6709 (14979)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 10.1¢	$28.81	—	-$28.81	55% 49869-40477 (90346)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 80.6¢	$54.75	$65.08	+$10.34	66% 123993-63821 (187814)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 90¢	$53.4	$59.33	+$5.93	57% 10019-7512 (17531)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 82.5¢	$33	$40	+$7	65% 20812-11390 (32202)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 71¢	$35.53	$50.04	+$14.51	64% 39591-22581 (62172)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 86.6¢	$75.13	$19.43	-$6.28	61% 93423-58740 (152163)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$14.05	—	-$14.05	62% 43491-26415 (69906)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 96.9¢	$20.35	$21	+$0.65	93% 22269-1715 (23984)
ST std0<$100	Upavg 94¢	$20.96	$20.1	-$0.86	67% 53055-26486 (79541)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 94.9¢	$17.23	$18.16	+$0.93	63% 50719-29966 (80685)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$7.98	—	-$7.98	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$8.77	—	-$8.77	65% 123715-66149 (189864)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,232.82

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$22.55

Record

59%

61841-42785 (104626)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$387.09

Value

$401.55

PnL

+$14.46

Record

54%

15086-12638 (27724)

Both legs:

Up$285.5171.1¢+$116.03

Down$101.5821.1¢-$101.58

wzbbb

Invested

$425.7

Value

$285.72

PnL

-$139.98

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

GoodFallen

Invested

$271.95

Value

$291.19

PnL

+$19.24

Record

56%

13362-10674 (24036)

ply-pm0

Invested

$311.35

Value

$282.52

PnL

-$28.83

Record

49%

4856-5023 (9879)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$224.21

Value

$231.12

PnL

+$6.9

Record

64%

57344-32114 (89458)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$186.11

Value

$165.62

PnL

-$20.49

Record

55%

7021-5754 (12775)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$146.69

Value

$138

PnL

-$8.69

Record

56%

12092-9338 (21430)

Both legs:

Up$98.0171¢+$39.99

Down$48.6821.2¢-$48.68

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$126.26

Value

$152.82

PnL

+$26.57

Record

60%

11816-7738 (19554)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$168.4

Value

$96.69

PnL

-$71.71

Record

57%

11636-8639 (20275)

Both legs:

Up$73.5576.1¢+$23.14

Down$94.8539.7¢-$94.85

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$76.54

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$23.85

Record

56%

57395-44340 (101735)

Bonereaper

Invested

$57.71

Value

$113.16

PnL

+$55.45

Record

66%

98373-50815 (149188)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$79.98

Value

$50

PnL

-$29.98

Record

55%

8270-6709 (14979)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.81

Value

—

PnL

-$28.81

Record

55%

49869-40477 (90346)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$54.75

Value

$65.08

PnL

+$10.34

Record

66%

123993-63821 (187814)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$59.33

PnL

+$5.93

Record

57%

10019-7512 (17531)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$40

PnL

+$7

Record

65%

20812-11390 (32202)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$35.53

Value

$50.04

PnL

+$14.51

Record

64%

39591-22581 (62172)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$75.13

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$6.28

Record

61%

93423-58740 (152163)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.05

Value

—

PnL

-$14.05

Record

62%

43491-26415 (69906)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$20.35

Value

$21

PnL

+$0.65

Record

93%

22269-1715 (23984)

std0<$100

Invested

$20.96

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$0.86

Record

67%

53055-26486 (79541)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$17.23

Value

$18.16

PnL

+$0.93

Record

63%

50719-29966 (80685)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.98

Value

—

PnL

-$7.98

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.77

Value

—

PnL

-$8.77

Record

65%

123715-66149 (189864)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 29 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x21df1ee0...0097f2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793128800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $2.3K

+$22.55

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$14.46

wzbbb

Up — $285.72

-$139.98

GoodFallen

Up — $291.19

+$19.24

ply-pm0

Up — $282.52

-$28.83

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $231.12

+$6.9

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $165.62

-$20.49

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.69

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $152.82

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded